Israel Prepares for Possible Third Intifada in the West Bank

Palestinian security forces during a visit by President Mahmoud Abbas to the Jenin refugee camp on July 12. (AFP)
Palestinian security forces during a visit by President Mahmoud Abbas to the Jenin refugee camp on July 12. (AFP)
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Israel Prepares for Possible Third Intifada in the West Bank

Palestinian security forces during a visit by President Mahmoud Abbas to the Jenin refugee camp on July 12. (AFP)
Palestinian security forces during a visit by President Mahmoud Abbas to the Jenin refugee camp on July 12. (AFP)

Israel’s security establishment is preparing for the possibility of a third intifada (uprising), a more likely scenario in the post-President Mahmoud Abbas era.

Israel's Ynet reported that the recent operation in Jenin and its refugee camp served as a miniature representation of a broader military conflict that could unfold in the West Bank, involving tens of thousands of armed militants, with an abundant supply of ammunition smuggled from Israel or across the Jordanian border, and lacking no financial resources.

According to the website, this is the scenario outlined by Israeli intelligence officers for the situation in the West Bank.

This scenario gained more prominence in the past week as Israeli security received another reminder of the escalating situation in the West Bank, following three attacks occurring within a single day, including two shooting incidents.

The report said it is the Israeli army that bears the cost of this situation, including reduced training for regular brigades, increased activation of reserve soldiers for operational duties, and incurring costs amounting to hundreds of millions of shekels.

In the span of a year and a half, only 13 battalions have been involved in current security missions in the West Bank.

Since the surge in attacks began, the number of battalions has increased by an average of 25.

This figure still stands at approximately a quarter of the battalions that operated in the West Bank during the peak of the second uprising nearly two decades ago.

This gap in the number of soldiers deployed in the field can largely be attributed to advanced technologies and artificial intelligence, which were not available 20 years ago.

Furthermore, Ynet revealed that the Israeli army command in the West Bank has recently renewed its operational plans for any anticipated escalation.

These new offensive plans are based on precise intelligence information prepared by the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, which believes that every household in Palestinian cities and villages contains some form of weaponry.

It asserts that an unprecedented and substantial quantity of arms, previously absent in the West Bank, is now present.



Jordan Shifts Strategy Against Muslim Brotherhood Following Plot to ‘Stir Chaos’

Jordanian government spokesman Mohammad Momani announces details of terrorist cell arrests in Amman on Tuesday. (Petra)
Jordanian government spokesman Mohammad Momani announces details of terrorist cell arrests in Amman on Tuesday. (Petra)
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Jordan Shifts Strategy Against Muslim Brotherhood Following Plot to ‘Stir Chaos’

Jordanian government spokesman Mohammad Momani announces details of terrorist cell arrests in Amman on Tuesday. (Petra)
Jordanian government spokesman Mohammad Momani announces details of terrorist cell arrests in Amman on Tuesday. (Petra)

Jordanian authorities said they thwarted plans aimed at stirring chaos and causing material damage in the kingdom, in a move that analysts say may signal a strategic shift in how the state deals with the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood group.

The General Intelligence Department (GID) announced on Tuesday it had foiled “schemes targeting national security and aimed at sowing disorder and sabotage inside the country.”

According to the GID, 16 individuals were arrested in connection with the alleged plots, which officials say had been under close surveillance since 2021.

Sources familiar with the matter told Asharq Al-Awsat the developments could mark a turning point in Amman’s approach to the banned group, long considered a sensitive political issue in the kingdom.

Jordan is preparing for a strategic shift in how it deals with the Muslim Brotherhood, a senior political source, who requested anonymity, told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The source said the group had been operating without official recognition, but recent indictments and alleged foreign ties suggest that Amman is poised to adopt a tougher approach.

“If the movement has so far been active despite questions over its legal status, the charges laid out and the extent of its external links point to a coming change in how the kingdom deals with the Islamist movement,” the source said.

It added that the group’s activities would be subject to legal scrutiny and prosecution once court rulings are issued against those accused of belonging to its cells.

The source also revealed that the discovery of powerful explosives stored in residential homes points to the possible existence of armed militias posing a threat to Jordan's internal and external security.

Other Jordanian sources revealed that short-range rockets uncovered during a recent security operation were part of a broader effort to form ideologically driven, armed militias aimed at destabilizing the country from within.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, the sources estimated the missiles—believed to have a range of no more than five kilometers—were intended for sabotage and terrorist operations on Jordanian soil.

The activities were described as part of a recruitment strategy embedded in religious rhetoric aimed at mobilizing followers.

The sources stressed the importance of a legal and political separation between the Muslim Brotherhood and its political arm, the Islamic Action Front, which currently holds 31 seats in parliament.

“Ensuring the rule of law applies equally to all actors is now a priority,” one source said, noting that the circumstances surrounding the case reveal the danger of providing fertile ground for cross-border agendas and the spread of extremist ideology through armed factions.

Authorities reiterated Jordan’s official position advocating moderation and rejecting extremism. “Jordan must not become a source of instability threatening its neighbors,” one official said, highlighting the country’s commitment to peace.

While popular sentiment in Jordan continues to view Israel as an adversary, the official stance remains aligned with the 1994 peace treaty, which was ratified by parliament and remains in force.

Amman has also warned against Israel’s efforts to portray itself as a security target—a label officials fear could be used to justify expanded military operations in the occupied Palestinian West Bank.

Jordan views such moves, including potential displacement policies in Gaza or the West Bank, as a direct threat to its national interests.

Jordanian authorities have said that while four terrorist cells identified by security forces have been active since May 2021, there is no operational connection to the Hamas-led attacks during the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation against Israel in October 2023.

However, intelligence sources revealed that key figures within the Muslim Brotherhood received directives from foreign entities, though these were not named.

According to the sources, the suspects maintained communications with external groups, receiving funds from regional countries. They were also trained in southern Lebanon, suggesting ties to Hezbollah and Hamas operatives in the area.

Further investigations revealed potential Iranian financial support, with some evidence linking Tehran to efforts aimed at escalating tensions along the eastern front against Israel. These activities, the sources suggest, could be part of broader regional strategic moves.