Israel Prepares for Possible Third Intifada in the West Bank

Palestinian security forces during a visit by President Mahmoud Abbas to the Jenin refugee camp on July 12. (AFP)
Palestinian security forces during a visit by President Mahmoud Abbas to the Jenin refugee camp on July 12. (AFP)
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Israel Prepares for Possible Third Intifada in the West Bank

Palestinian security forces during a visit by President Mahmoud Abbas to the Jenin refugee camp on July 12. (AFP)
Palestinian security forces during a visit by President Mahmoud Abbas to the Jenin refugee camp on July 12. (AFP)

Israel’s security establishment is preparing for the possibility of a third intifada (uprising), a more likely scenario in the post-President Mahmoud Abbas era.

Israel's Ynet reported that the recent operation in Jenin and its refugee camp served as a miniature representation of a broader military conflict that could unfold in the West Bank, involving tens of thousands of armed militants, with an abundant supply of ammunition smuggled from Israel or across the Jordanian border, and lacking no financial resources.

According to the website, this is the scenario outlined by Israeli intelligence officers for the situation in the West Bank.

This scenario gained more prominence in the past week as Israeli security received another reminder of the escalating situation in the West Bank, following three attacks occurring within a single day, including two shooting incidents.

The report said it is the Israeli army that bears the cost of this situation, including reduced training for regular brigades, increased activation of reserve soldiers for operational duties, and incurring costs amounting to hundreds of millions of shekels.

In the span of a year and a half, only 13 battalions have been involved in current security missions in the West Bank.

Since the surge in attacks began, the number of battalions has increased by an average of 25.

This figure still stands at approximately a quarter of the battalions that operated in the West Bank during the peak of the second uprising nearly two decades ago.

This gap in the number of soldiers deployed in the field can largely be attributed to advanced technologies and artificial intelligence, which were not available 20 years ago.

Furthermore, Ynet revealed that the Israeli army command in the West Bank has recently renewed its operational plans for any anticipated escalation.

These new offensive plans are based on precise intelligence information prepared by the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, which believes that every household in Palestinian cities and villages contains some form of weaponry.

It asserts that an unprecedented and substantial quantity of arms, previously absent in the West Bank, is now present.



Iraq Braces for Economic Fallout from Heavy Reliance on Iran amid Escalating Conflict

An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 
An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 
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Iraq Braces for Economic Fallout from Heavy Reliance on Iran amid Escalating Conflict

An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 
An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 

As tensions escalate between Iran and Israel, Iraq is nervously eyeing the potential fallout from a conflict that could have deep and lasting consequences for the country.

While Iraqi authorities and political parties maintain a publicly cautious and reserved stance, behind closed doors, concerns are mounting over what many see as Iraq’s overreliance on Iran in critical sectors such as energy and trade.

A political source speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat revealed that, although officials are holding back from public commentary, there is a growing consensus among political actors that Iraq could face significant disruption regardless of how the conflict unfolds. “There’s an unspoken recognition that many things will change after this war,” the source said.

Already, early signs of strain are surfacing. Iraq’s Ministry of Trade unveiled a new contingency plan this week to safeguard food security amid fears of disrupted supply chains.

Spokesperson Mohammed Hanoun stated the plan aims to “ensure continuity of essential supplies without significant price hikes,” through the buildup of strategic reserves and strengthened market oversight to prevent hoarding or price manipulation.

Security services, meanwhile, reported the arrest of 660 individuals accused of exploiting regional instability. More visibly, daily life is beginning to feel the pressure: consumer activity is slowing, prices of some goods are creeping up, and travel logistics have grown more complex.

With Baghdad International Airport temporarily closed, Basra has become the only functional air entry point. According to sources, the cost of returning to Iraq by land via Jordan has soared from $70 to $250 per passenger.

Experts warn that Iraq’s economic fragility and its deep entanglement with Iran leave it acutely vulnerable. Dr. Siham Youssef, a professor of international economics, explained that Iraq’s heavy dependence on oil exports - comprising over 90% of state revenue - offers little cushion in times of geopolitical upheaval.

While global oil prices have risen by 8% to 12%, Youssef cautioned that any benefit could be wiped out by rising transportation costs, insurance premiums, or damage to infrastructure.

Compounding the issue is Iraq’s reliance on Iranian gas for electricity production. If the conflict interrupts Iranian gas flows, Iraq may face severe power shortages, rising costs, and mounting pressure on an already stretched budget.

Shipping risks are also increasing, with Iraq’s ports located dangerously close to potential conflict zones. Youssef noted that international shipping and insurance firms may soon classify Iraqi ports as “high-risk,” leading to surging logistics costs. Additionally, the closure of Iraqi airspace threatens not only civil aviation but also the loss of overflight revenues.