UN Now Expects 1.8 Million People to Flee Sudan by Year-End

 Sudanese wait outside a Passports and Immigration Services office in Port Sudan on September 3, 2023, following an announcement by the authorities of the resumption of issuing travel documents in war-torn Sudan. (AFP)
Sudanese wait outside a Passports and Immigration Services office in Port Sudan on September 3, 2023, following an announcement by the authorities of the resumption of issuing travel documents in war-torn Sudan. (AFP)
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UN Now Expects 1.8 Million People to Flee Sudan by Year-End

 Sudanese wait outside a Passports and Immigration Services office in Port Sudan on September 3, 2023, following an announcement by the authorities of the resumption of issuing travel documents in war-torn Sudan. (AFP)
Sudanese wait outside a Passports and Immigration Services office in Port Sudan on September 3, 2023, following an announcement by the authorities of the resumption of issuing travel documents in war-torn Sudan. (AFP)

The UN refugee agency on Monday said it expected over 1.8 million people from Sudan to arrive in five neighboring countries by the end of the year and appealed for $1 billion to help them amid reports of rising disease and death rates.

The estimate for those fleeing violence is about double what UNHCR projected in May shortly after the conflict began and an increase of 600,000 from an interim estimate.

Already, more than 1 million people have left Sudan to neighboring states of Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Central African Republic amid fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the capital Khartoum and beyond.

Many are so-called returnees or people who are returning to countries from which they previously fled.

In South Sudan, which is due to receive a third of the 1.8 million people fleeing, thousands of people, many sick and exhausted after crossing the White Nile River, have been arriving in a transit center, aid group Médecins Sans Frontières said.

Others have died on board the boats during the nearly three-day crossing, it said.

UNHCR voiced growing concern about the health of the new arrivals, reporting rising malnutrition rates and disease such as cholera and measles in "several" host countries.

"It is deeply distressing to receive reports of children dying from diseases that are entirely preventable, should partners have had sufficient resources," said Mamadou Dian Balde, UNHCR regional refugee coordinator for the Sudan Situation. "Action can no longer be delayed."

The revised $1 billion appeal represents an increase of nearly half a million dollars and takes into account the additional refugees and the extension of programs by an additional two months to the end of December, a spokesperson told Reuters. The new regional appeal is only 19% funded, he said.



Houthi Ceasefire Reportedly Followed US Intel Showing Militias Sought Off-ramp

Houthi soldiers ride a pick-up truck as they patrol a street in Sanaa, Yemen, 11 May 2025. EPA/YAHYA ARHAB
Houthi soldiers ride a pick-up truck as they patrol a street in Sanaa, Yemen, 11 May 2025. EPA/YAHYA ARHAB
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Houthi Ceasefire Reportedly Followed US Intel Showing Militias Sought Off-ramp

Houthi soldiers ride a pick-up truck as they patrol a street in Sanaa, Yemen, 11 May 2025. EPA/YAHYA ARHAB
Houthi soldiers ride a pick-up truck as they patrol a street in Sanaa, Yemen, 11 May 2025. EPA/YAHYA ARHAB

Days before a surprise US ceasefire agreement with Houthis, US intelligence started picking up indications the Yemeni militias were looking for an exit after seven weeks of relentless US bombings, four US officials said.

Houthi leaders began reaching out sometime around the first weekend in May to US allies in the Middle East, two of the officials told Reuters.

"We started getting intel that the Houthis had had enough," one of the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity to recount the internal discussions about the intelligence, which haven't been previously reported.

Interviews with current and former US officials, diplomatic sources and other experts show how a campaign that the US military's Central Command once envisioned might stretch through most of this year came to abrupt halt on May 6 after 52 days, allowing President Donald Trump to declare victory before heading to the Middle East this week.

Since November 2023, the Houthis have disrupted commerce by launching hundreds of drone and missile attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, saying they were targeting ships linked to Israel in solidarity with Palestinians over the war in Gaza.

Two sources said Iran played an important role in encouraging the Iran-aligned Houthis to negotiate, as Tehran pursues its own talks with the United States over its nuclear program aimed at ending crippling US sanctions and preventing a military strike by the US or Israel.

But the culmination of the ceasefire accord underscored how quickly the Trump administration moved on initial intelligence to secure what in March seemed unthinkable to many experts in the short term: a Houthi declaration it would stop striking US ships. Trump's unconventional approach included bypassing close US ally Israel, which is not covered by the agreement, and which was not told ahead of time, an Israeli official and a person familiar with the matter said.

The Houthis weren't the only ones feeling pressure. The bombing campaign has also been costly to the United States, which has burned through munitions and lost two aircraft and multiple drones.

After the early May tips on the Houthis, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth initiated a series of meetings at the White House on Monday morning, and concluded there was a window of opportunity with the Iran-aligned fighters, one of the officials said.

Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who was already leading US negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, worked through Omani mediators and held indirect talks with the chief Houthi negotiator and spokesperson, Mohammed Abdulsalam, two US officials told Reuters.

Abdulsalam was in turn in contact with the Houthis' top leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, one of the officials said.

A framework agreement was reached later on Monday, one of the officials said.

By Tuesday, May 6, Trump was ready to announce an accord, declaring the Houthis had capitulated.

"They said please don't bomb us any more and we're not going to attack your ships," he told reporters.

Asked about Reuters' findings, the Houthis' Abdulsalam said the group communicated only via Oman and agreed to the ceasefire because the Houthis had been responding to the United States defensively.

"So if they stopped their aggression, we stopped our response," Abdusalam told Reuters, declining further comment.

A spokesperson for Witkoff did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

OFF-RAMP

Each side saw some benefit to striking a deal. For the Houthis, it offered an off-ramp that could allow them to rebuild and relieve pressure that, over months or years, could have strategically put them at risk, US officials and experts say.

At the start of the US campaign on March 15, al-Houthi was defiant, saying in a televised address that his fighters would target US ships in the Red Sea as long as the US continued its attacks on Yemen.

At the time, it appeared the United States might be locked in a costly standoff, as US forces used up munitions during more than 1,100 strikes. Hegseth said the US would only halt its bombings once the Houthis agreed to stop striking US ships and drones.

The Houthis shot down seven US MQ-9 drones -- each worth tens of millions of dollars -- since Trump took office.

The Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, whose deployment in the Middle East was extended by Hegseth, lost two fighter jets, including one falling from the deck of the ship after the massive vessel was forced to make a hard turn because of a Houthi attack in the area.