UN Now Expects 1.8 Million People to Flee Sudan by Year-End

 Sudanese wait outside a Passports and Immigration Services office in Port Sudan on September 3, 2023, following an announcement by the authorities of the resumption of issuing travel documents in war-torn Sudan. (AFP)
Sudanese wait outside a Passports and Immigration Services office in Port Sudan on September 3, 2023, following an announcement by the authorities of the resumption of issuing travel documents in war-torn Sudan. (AFP)
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UN Now Expects 1.8 Million People to Flee Sudan by Year-End

 Sudanese wait outside a Passports and Immigration Services office in Port Sudan on September 3, 2023, following an announcement by the authorities of the resumption of issuing travel documents in war-torn Sudan. (AFP)
Sudanese wait outside a Passports and Immigration Services office in Port Sudan on September 3, 2023, following an announcement by the authorities of the resumption of issuing travel documents in war-torn Sudan. (AFP)

The UN refugee agency on Monday said it expected over 1.8 million people from Sudan to arrive in five neighboring countries by the end of the year and appealed for $1 billion to help them amid reports of rising disease and death rates.

The estimate for those fleeing violence is about double what UNHCR projected in May shortly after the conflict began and an increase of 600,000 from an interim estimate.

Already, more than 1 million people have left Sudan to neighboring states of Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Central African Republic amid fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the capital Khartoum and beyond.

Many are so-called returnees or people who are returning to countries from which they previously fled.

In South Sudan, which is due to receive a third of the 1.8 million people fleeing, thousands of people, many sick and exhausted after crossing the White Nile River, have been arriving in a transit center, aid group Médecins Sans Frontières said.

Others have died on board the boats during the nearly three-day crossing, it said.

UNHCR voiced growing concern about the health of the new arrivals, reporting rising malnutrition rates and disease such as cholera and measles in "several" host countries.

"It is deeply distressing to receive reports of children dying from diseases that are entirely preventable, should partners have had sufficient resources," said Mamadou Dian Balde, UNHCR regional refugee coordinator for the Sudan Situation. "Action can no longer be delayed."

The revised $1 billion appeal represents an increase of nearly half a million dollars and takes into account the additional refugees and the extension of programs by an additional two months to the end of December, a spokesperson told Reuters. The new regional appeal is only 19% funded, he said.



Hezbollah Shuffles its Cards, Adheres to Weapons Control

Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem. (Reuters)
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem. (Reuters)
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Hezbollah Shuffles its Cards, Adheres to Weapons Control

Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem. (Reuters)
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem. (Reuters)

The rhetoric of Lebanon’s Hezbollah chief on Saturday reaffirmed the party's commitment to its weapons and contradicted the positive atmospheres prevailing in the country after the election of General Jospeh Aoun as President, and the designation of international judge Nawaf Salam to form the new government.

On Saturday, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, stated that "the resistance in Lebanon will remain resilient against the American-Israeli project, continuing to be strong, ready, and loyal to the blood of the martyrs in its mission to liberate the land and Palestine".

Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in a conflict parallel to the Gaza war in November. That ceasefire, which was brokered by the United States and France, requires Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days, and for Hezbollah to remove all its fighters and weapons from the south.

Both sides have since accused each other of breaching the ceasefire.

"Don't test our patience and I call on the Lebanese state to deal firmly with these (Israeli) violations that have exceeded 100," Qassem said in a speech delivered during the 13th International Conference titled "Gaza, Symbol of Resistance".

He added saying that the party emerged from the war “with our heads held high”, and that plans to utilize the resistance and its weapons should be discussed within the defense strategy and through dialogue.

He emphasized that "no one will be able to exploit the results of the (Israeli) aggression for internal political gains, as the political process is separate from the status of the resistance".

Qassem's stance comes just days before Israel is set to withdraw from the south, a move that, according to Ghayas Yazbek, a member of the Lebanese Forces bloc, is "dangerous" and will lead to negative consequences for Lebanon. He “is provoking a new Israeli war on Lebanon", he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Qassem’s remarks about insisting on holding on to weapons and to the separation of Resolution 1701 between the southern and northern parts of the Litani River contradict the ceasefire agreement, mainly that these statements come just days before Israel’s planned withdrawal from the areas it occupied in southern Lebanon on January 27, and on the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration as US President. This could trigger a dangerous escalation from Israel”, Yazbek said.

Qassem’s statement is also an attempt to undermine the credibility of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who had conveyed positive vibes regarding the formation of the new government. The President and the Prime Minister-designate had affirmed that no party in Lebanon will be excluded from the upcoming government.

“Qassem’s rhetoric is a severe blow to the new presidency and premiership”, Yazbek stated, describing it as "an act of blackmail” akin to the tactics Hezbollah employed before the war.

The Secretary-General's remarks coincided with the presence of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in Beirut and came just hours after the official visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Lebanon.

"Naim Qassem's speech raises concerns among friendly and sisterly countries that have pledged to provide full support to the Lebanese state, and it represents a negative message toward President Macron, who spoke on behalf of the international community”, said Yazbek.

The MP added that the rhetoric “reflects narrow, sectarian agenda of the Shiite community, which has once again entangled the country in crises from which it is desperately trying to extricate itself”.

Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, downplayed the impact of Qassem’s rhetoric on the positive atmospheres prevailing in Lebanon.

Qassem’s remarks are "an attempt to absorb the setback the party faced, a preemptive move regarding the ministerial statement and its potential participation in the new government, as well as a way to gauge the contents of the ministerial statement and interpret the issue of restricting weapons to the state”, Nader told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The nomination of Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam had angered Hezbollah, which accused opponents of seeking to exclude it.
Salam was nominated by a majority of lawmakers last week to form a government but did not win the backing of the Shiite parties Hezbollah and the Amal Movement.
Salam said the formation of a new government would not be delayed, indicating a positive atmosphere in discussions over its composition.