The Iran war has sparked growing concern in Egypt over its potential impact on navigation through the Suez Canal, one of the country’s most important sources of national income. Experts say the conflict has already begun affecting traffic through the strategic waterway as security risks for ships increase.
Recent reports indicate that several major global shipping companies—including Denmark’s Maersk, France’s CMA CGM, and Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd—have suspended the transit of some vessels through the canal.
The head of the Suez Canal Authority, Admiral Osama Rabie, expressed hope that regional stability would return soon, warning that escalating tensions could have serious repercussions for maritime transport and global supply chains.
In a statement issued Thursday, Rabie said the authority has moved to upgrade its maritime and navigational services and introduce new activities designed to meet customer needs in both normal and emergency circumstances. These include ship maintenance and repair services, maritime rescue operations and marine ambulance services, alongside continued modernization of the authority’s fleet of marine units.
Early impact on canal traffic
International transport expert Osama Aqil said the war’s effect on the canal had been evident since the first days of the conflict.
“Current indicators show that canal traffic has declined by about 50 percent since the war began,” Aqil told Asharq Al-Awsat. He attributed the drop to rising security risks and higher insurance premiums imposed on vessels passing through the region.
Aqil warned that the impact could deepen if the conflict drags on. Even after hostilities end, he said, it may take considerable time for shipping traffic to return to normal.
“International shipping groups that divert their vessels to the Cape of Good Hope route will likely sign contracts for the alternative passage,” he said. “Ending those arrangements and redirecting ships back through the canal will take time.”
Before the latest tensions, the Suez Canal had been showing signs of recovery following an earlier setback caused by Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea linked to the war in Gaza.
In January, the Suez Canal Authority said navigation statistics showed a “noticeable improvement” during the first half of the 2025–2026 fiscal year. Rabie said at the time that indicators pointed to improving revenues as some shipping lines resumed using the canal after conditions stabilized in the Red Sea.
Wider threat to global trade
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has also warned about the impact of regional tensions on shipping in the Red Sea. During a meeting in Cairo earlier this month with Ajay Banga, president of the World Bank Group, Sisi said Egypt had lost roughly $10 billion in Suez Canal revenues due to the Gaza war, according to the Egyptian presidency.
Aqil said the Iran war could affect not only the canal but global trade more broadly, which he said has already shown signs of slowing.
“If the conflict continues, transport costs will rise, which will push up prices for many goods and commodities,” he stated.
Suez Canal revenues dropped sharply in 2024, falling 61 percent to $3.9 billion, compared with about $10.2 billion in 2023.
Security risk management expert Major General Ihab Youssef noted that the continuation of the war poses a threat to global navigation, not only to the Suez Canal.
Egypt secures ships along the canal and up to the limits of its territorial waters, he remarked. However, vessels traveling to and from the waterway must still pass through areas affected by military operations in the Gulf region and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting many shipping companies to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.
“Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would further increase the risks of transit, particularly if the war is prolonged,” Youssef said.
