Round 4 of GERD Talks: What are the Possible Scenarios?

Egypt’s delegation during the Cairo GERD talks (Egyptian Ministry of Water)
Egypt’s delegation during the Cairo GERD talks (Egyptian Ministry of Water)
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Round 4 of GERD Talks: What are the Possible Scenarios?

Egypt’s delegation during the Cairo GERD talks (Egyptian Ministry of Water)
Egypt’s delegation during the Cairo GERD talks (Egyptian Ministry of Water)

A new round of negotiations concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will begin next December between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in Addis Ababa.

The talks aim to reach a “legal” agreement over operating the Ethiopian Dam following the third round of negotiations that ended in Cairo last Tuesday.

Experts considered the fourth round as the “last chance” to resolve the outstanding differences between the three countries.

The Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation announced that the meeting would be held in Addis Ababa to complete the negotiating process that began over the past two months and reach an agreement on the filling and operation rules.

It indicated that the Cairo meeting was based on talks between the three countries to accelerate the process of reaching an agreement following a meeting between leaders of Egypt and Ethiopia on July 13.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed agreed to initiate urgent negotiations to finalize an agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan on the filling of the GERD and the rules of its operations.

The two leaders said they would make all the necessary efforts to finalize the agreement in four months.

Last month, Ethiopia hosted another round of negotiations and witnessed accusations between Cairo and Addis Ababa of not achieving progress in the talks.

Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University Abbas Sharaki believes the next round of negotiations will be the fourth and probably the ‘last chance’ to reach an agreement.

Sharaki believes the three countries will be unable to reach common ground, noting that Egypt has been negotiating for 12 years but the Ethiopian position remains unchanged.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that over four years, Ethiopia has stored 41 billion cubic meters of water, noting that the dam is set to keep 74 billion cubic meters.

He said if the related countries fail to reach an agreement, Ethiopia could store the remaining 23 billion cubic meters by next year, which would impact the downstream countries.

Egypt and Sudan demand a binding legal agreement regulating the filling and operating of the dam Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile.

The dam could reduce water supplies to the two countries and cause other environmental and economic damages.

Ethiopia defends its right to development and generates the electricity its people need.

Sharaki believes that the possible scenario after a failed fourth round would include an announcement by the relevant technical committees that negotiations “reached a dead end”. The political leadership would then discuss the matter to take necessary steps.

The professor suggested another scenario that could see the return of Egypt and Sudan to the Security Council to discuss the issue of the dam being a threat risking the two countries.



Lebanon, Britain to Hold Joint Military Exercise Starting Tuesday

A Lebanese flag flies as buildings lie in ruins in Mansouri, as seen from Henniye, Lebanon, September 29, 2026. (Reuters)
A Lebanese flag flies as buildings lie in ruins in Mansouri, as seen from Henniye, Lebanon, September 29, 2026. (Reuters)
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Lebanon, Britain to Hold Joint Military Exercise Starting Tuesday

A Lebanese flag flies as buildings lie in ruins in Mansouri, as seen from Henniye, Lebanon, September 29, 2026. (Reuters)
A Lebanese flag flies as buildings lie in ruins in Mansouri, as seen from Henniye, Lebanon, September 29, 2026. (Reuters)

Lebanon's army will hold exercises with the British military this month, both sides said on Monday, with the drills also to involve personnel and representatives from countries including the United States and France.

Britain has been a key supporter of the cash-strapped Lebanese army and has provided millions of dollars in assistance over the years, including helping train Lebanese soldiers to secure the country's land borders.

The Lebanese army said that the joint "Pegasus Cedar 2026" exercise would begin on Tuesday and aimed to "bolster the capabilities of military units and raise the level of coordination between the Lebanese army and friendly armies".

It said the exercise would include "training on reconnaissance, raids and combat in built-up areas", among other activities.

A British embassy statement said British soldiers based in Cyprus would "join their Lebanese counterparts in the Air Assault Regiment in a landmark military exercise aimed at strengthening bilateral defense ties and enhancing operational readiness".

"Personnel from the armies of the United States and Italy will also take part, with representatives from the armies of France, Cyprus, Qatar, and Jordan joining as observers," it added.

The exercise, to be held over three weeks, builds on a previous UK-Lebanon military training exercise held in September 2023, the embassy statement added.

Lebanese authorities have called for increased support for the country's under-resourced army, which counts some 80,000 personnel and depends heavily on foreign aid.

The military faces enormous challenges in completing its deployment to south Lebanon under a framework agreement reached in June between Israel and Lebanon that involves the disarmament of the Hezbollah group and the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Hezbollah drew the country into the Middle East war in March by attacking Israel, which responded with massive airstrikes and a ground invasion.

While violence has dropped since June, Israel still carries out attacks and demolitions, and its troops are occupying a self-declared "security zone" running around 10 kilometers (six miles) inside Lebanon along the border.

The fighting followed another conflict that erupted in 2023 that led to an all-out war the following year.

Last month in Paris, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun met his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and Jordan's King Abdullah II, and discussed international support for the country's military.


UN Chief Calls for Gaza Ceasefire Ahead of Oct 7 Anniversary

A photograph shows destruction at the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, with an Israeli flag fluttering in the background, on October 5, 2026. (AFP)
A photograph shows destruction at the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, with an Israeli flag fluttering in the background, on October 5, 2026. (AFP)
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UN Chief Calls for Gaza Ceasefire Ahead of Oct 7 Anniversary

A photograph shows destruction at the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, with an Israeli flag fluttering in the background, on October 5, 2026. (AFP)
A photograph shows destruction at the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, with an Israeli flag fluttering in the background, on October 5, 2026. (AFP)

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Monday called for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza ahead of the third anniversary of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel.

"It is time for the ceasefire to become permanent. It is time to allow humanitarian assistance at scale. And it is time to respect international law," Guterres said in a statement, calling for a "political path to lasting peace across the whole region."

"Let this anniversary mark not only another year of mourning, but also a renewed determination to build a different future: one in which Israelis and Palestinians can live side by side in peace and security, with their rights, dignity, and aspirations fulfilled," Guterres said.

The UN chief acknowledged Israel's casualties in the statement, calling the Hamas attack "abhorrent" for "killing more than 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals" and the hostage-taking of another 251 people.

Guterres also said Palestinians in Gaza have faced a "massive loss of life, displacement and destruction," without specifying their death toll.

"Their suffering, too, demands an end, now," Guterres said.

Israel's years-long military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 74,200 people according to the Palestinian Health Ministry, which is under Hamas' authority and whose figures are deemed reliable by the UN.

Guterres acknowledged that a brief ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump in October 2025, "brought some relief. But it has yet to deliver security, adequate humanitarian assistance or a credible path to recovery and peace."

Israel, which still controls most of Gaza, refuses to withdraw its soldiers until Hamas' disarmament has been verified.

Hamas, for its part, has advocated for gradual disarmament rather than immediate and unilateral surrender of its arsenal.

Since the 2023 attacks, Israel has waged military attacks on several fronts, notably invading southern Lebanon to confront Hezbollah, the movement backed by Tehran, and launching war against Iran in late February alongside the United States.


ISIS Attack Kills Iraqi Policeman Near Kirkuk

Iraqi police patrol vehicles are stationed outside the Karkh Court house during the trial of six French citizens accused of terrorism in Baghdad, on October 5, 2026. (AFP)
Iraqi police patrol vehicles are stationed outside the Karkh Court house during the trial of six French citizens accused of terrorism in Baghdad, on October 5, 2026. (AFP)
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ISIS Attack Kills Iraqi Policeman Near Kirkuk

Iraqi police patrol vehicles are stationed outside the Karkh Court house during the trial of six French citizens accused of terrorism in Baghdad, on October 5, 2026. (AFP)
Iraqi police patrol vehicles are stationed outside the Karkh Court house during the trial of six French citizens accused of terrorism in Baghdad, on October 5, 2026. (AFP)

At least ‌one Iraqi federal policeman was killed and four others wounded on Monday when ISIS militants attacked a federal police site southwest of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, two security sources told Reuters.

The attackers used semi-automatic machine guns and sniper fire against the federal police regiment stationed near Hawija, about 70 km (43 miles) southwest of Kirkuk, the sources said.

There ‌was no ‌immediate claim of responsibility. But ‌security and ⁠army sources said ⁠ ISIS militants, who are still active in the area, were involved in the attack.

The attack is the first reported assault by ISIS on Iraqi security forces since US forces completed their withdrawal ⁠from Iraq on September 30, ending ‌the military mission in ‌the country.

The United States had led a ‌coalition that supported Iraqi forces in the fight ‌against ISIS, including efforts to prevent the militant group from regrouping.

Washington said it would continue to provide targeted training and intelligence support after ‌the withdrawal, while Iraqi forces would take full responsibility for the country’s security ⁠and ⁠for suppressing ISIS remnants.

Despite the defeat of ISIS nearly a decade ago, the group retains sleeper cells in Iraq, Iraqi security officials told Reuters ahead of the US withdrawal.

The withdrawal had raised concerns that a security vacuum could provide an opening for ISIS to regain strength, with some officials warning that Iraqi forces would now have to contain the group without the coalition’s military presence.