Two documents surfaced in Tel Aviv on Tuesday, revealing that the research division of the Israeli military intelligence, known as Aman, had predicted an impending attack by either Hamas or Hezbollah, or both, in 2023.
A warning about this was communicated to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
However, it seems that Netanyahu paid little attention and took no action to alter his policy that encourages Palestinian movements or the Lebanon-based Hezbollah to plan attacks.
The head of the research division at Aman personally warned Netanyahu in letters sent to him in March and July that the sociopolitical crisis that rocked Israel was encouraging Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas to risk action against Israel, even simultaneously.
Brigadier General Amit Sa’ar wrote to Netanyahu on March 19, a week before the first attempt to confirm the judicial overhaul legislation, and the attempted dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and again on July 16, a week before the Knesset vote on repealing the “reasonableness standard”.
He attached raw intelligence reports to each of the letters, which were published by the Haaretz daily. The reports contained a brief analysis warning of an impending danger of military escalation.
The first letter was sent with the heading, “The view from over there – how is Israel perceived in the [regional] system?” Sa’ar noted that “all actors in the systems indicate that Israel is in a blistering, unprecedented crisis threatening its cohesion and weakening it for our main enemies, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.”
“This weakness is an expression of a process ending in the collapse of Israel, and the current situation is an opportunity to accelerate and deepen its distress.”
Sa’ar clarified that “this analysis is not an interpretive view of reality, but the basis for a situation assessment by leadership figures, intelligence, and communications systems. It is already leading to changes in decision-making and risk-taking of various actors, who analyze and deduce implications from Israel’s internal condition.”
