US National Security Adviser: Negotiated Outcome Best Way to End Lebanon-Israel Tension

 Smoke billows following Israeli strikes in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Zoun near the border on December 15, 2023, amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza. (AFP)
Smoke billows following Israeli strikes in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Zoun near the border on December 15, 2023, amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza. (AFP)
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US National Security Adviser: Negotiated Outcome Best Way to End Lebanon-Israel Tension

 Smoke billows following Israeli strikes in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Zoun near the border on December 15, 2023, amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza. (AFP)
Smoke billows following Israeli strikes in the southern Lebanese village of Majdal Zoun near the border on December 15, 2023, amid ongoing cross-border tensions as fighting continues between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza. (AFP)

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday that he has discussed with Israeli officials the volatile situation along the Lebanon-Israel border, adding that a “negotiated outcome” is the best way to reassure residents of northern Israel.

Speaking to reporters in Jerusalem, Sullivan said that Washington won't tolerate threats by Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group, which has been attacking Israeli military posts along the border since a day after the Israel-Hamas war began on Oct. 7.

Over the past two months, Israel has evacuated more than 20,000 of its citizens from towns and villages along the border with Lebanon, some of whom have expressed concerns that they have no plans to return home as long as Hezbollah fighters are deployed on the Lebanese side of the border.

“We need to send a clear message that we will not tolerate the kinds of threats and terrorist activity that we have seen from Hezbollah and from the territory of Lebanon,” Sullivan told reporters in Jerusalem.

“The best way to do this is to come up with a negotiated outcome,” Sullivan said, adding that such an outcome will ensure that “those Israeli citizens in those communities up on the northern border can know that they are not going to be subject to an attack that will take their lives or destroy their communities.”

Sullivan said: “That threat can be dealt with through diplomacy and does not require the launching of a new war.”

Still, the US official said that such a step requires not just diplomacy, but deterrence as well.

Israel and Hezbollah are bitter enemies that fought a war in the summer of 2006. Israel considers the Iran-backed Shiite group its most serious immediate threat, estimating that Hezbollah has around 150,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel.

Since the end of the 34-day war in 2006, thousands of UN peacekeepers and Lebanese troops were deployed along the border. The border had been mostly quiet over the years apart from sporadic violations, but it all changed since the Israel-Hamas war started.

Since Oct. 8, Hezbollah fighters have carried out scores of attacks — mostly targeting Israeli military posts along the border. Israeli artillery and warplanes have also been attacking areas on the Lebanese side of the border.

On Friday, an Israeli drone dropped leaflets on a border village, warning its residents that Hezbollah is endangering their lives by using the area to launch attacks against Israel.

Lebanon's state news agency reported that an Israeli drone struck a house Friday in the southern village of Yarin, wounding several people. It gave no further details.

On Thursday, an Israeli airstrike on the southern village of Markaba killed a Hezbollah fighter, raising to 101 the total number of the group’s members who have been killed since the latest round of fighting began.

Hezbollah official Ali Daamoush was defiant in his Friday prayers sermon, vowing that the group won't stop attacks along the border and also has no plans to move away from the frontier.

“The Israeli-American brutality can only be stopped by the resistance that can inflict losses on the enemy,” Daamoush said. “Intimidation and threats will not change the stance of the resistance and its presence on every inch of the south” of Lebanon.

With tensions high along the southern border, a four-year historic economic crisis and the presidential post vacant since October 2022 amid divisions between rival groups, Lebanon's parliament held a meeting in Beirut Friday during which legislators voted on a draft law extending the term of army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun and police commander Maj. Gen. Imad Osman by one year.

Aoun, commander of the US-backed Lebanese Armed Forces, will reach retirement age next month but with the adoption of the law, the general can remain at his post until January 2025.

“We are passing through an extraordinary situation, so it was necessary to take the decision that comes in Lebanon's interest,” legislator Waddah Sadek told reporters after the meeting.



Will Lebanon Finally Elect a President after a 2-year Vacuum?

A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Will Lebanon Finally Elect a President after a 2-year Vacuum?

A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Lebanon's parliament is set to convene Thursday to attempt to elect a head of state for the 13th time during a presidential vacuum that's lasted over two years. This time, analysts said, they might succeed.
The session comes weeks after a tenuous ceasefire agreement halted a 14-month conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and as Lebanon's leaders seek international assistance for reconstruction, The Associated Press said.
The primary contenders for the presidency include the Lebanese army's commander, Joseph Aoun. The candidate previously supported by Hezbollah, Suleiman Franjieh, on Wednesday announced he was pulling out of the race and endorsed Aoun.
The Lebanese military has a key role in sustaining the ceasefire, as its forces are tasked with ensuring that Hezbollah pulls its fighters and weapons out of southern Lebanon.
Here's why the vacuum has dragged on for so long and what to expect Thursday:
Why has it taken so long to elect a president? Lebanon's fractious sectarian power-sharing system is prone to deadlock, both for political and procedural reasons. The small, crisis-battered Mediterranean country has been through several extended presidential vacancies, with the longest lasting nearly 2 1/2 years between May 2014 and October 2016. It ended when former President Michel Aoun was elected.
Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement party was at the time the main Christian ally of the Shiite political party and Hezbollah, although their alliance has since fractured.
After Aoun's term ended in October 2022, Hezbollah backed Franjieh, leader of the Marada Movement, a political party with a strong influence in northern Lebanon. Frangieh also had close ties with former Syrian president Bashar Assad.
While Joseph Aoun — no relation to the former president — never officially announced his candidacy, he was widely understood to be the main rival to Franjieh. Meanwhile, political factions opposed to Hezbollah put forward a series of candidates.
The last presidential vote in parliament in June 2023 broke down after the bloc led by Hezbollah withdrew following the first round of voting, where Franjieh came in behind the opposition candidate, Jihad Azour. The withdrawal broke the quorum in the 128-member house.
Michael Young, a senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said the current election “has taken a long time simply because parliament, reflecting the reality of the country, is very divided, and actually did not respect the constitutional provisions to hold electoral session open until a president was elected.”
The situation was exacerbated because parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, used parliamentary rules “more as an instrument of blockage than an instrument of consensus,” lifting sessions whenever he “did not want a majority to develop around the candidacies he did not support,” Young said.
Imad Salamey, a political science professor at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, noted that “Lebanon’s dependence on foreign support means external agreements often determine presidential outcomes.”
During the current impasse, a five-member committee consisting of the United States, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar has held a series of meetings aimed at negotiating an end to the presidential vacuum.
Who are the main contenders? — Army commander Joseph Aoun, 60, is widely seen as the frontrunner to become Lebanon’s next president, particularly since Franjieh's withdrawal.
Aoun was appointed to the current post in March 2017 and had been set to retire in January 2024, but his term was extended twice during the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
Aoun, who has kept a low profile and avoided media appearances, never formally announced his candidacy but is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States, which provides significant financial support to the Lebanese army.
Lebanon’s constitution technically bars a sitting army chief from becoming president. The ban has been waived before, but it means that Aoun faces additional procedural hurdles.
Under normal circumstances, a presidential candidate in Lebanon can be elected by a two-thirds majority in the first round of voting or by a simple majority in the second round if there is no winner in the first round. But because of the constitutional issues surrounding his election, Aoun would need a two-thirds majority even in the second round.
— Jihad Azour, who has been backed by factions opposed to Hezbollah, is a prominent economist who has served as the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund since 2017. As finance minister from 2005 to 2008, he led some reforms including modernizing the tax and customs systems.
— Elias al-Baysari is the acting head of Lebanon's General Security agency, which is responsible for border control and historically seen as close to Hezbollah. His career in national security began in 1986 when he joined the Lebanese army. His early roles included key positions within Beirut’s port security and the army’s intelligence division. In 2005, al-Baysari joined General Security. He also holds a doctorate in law.
What are the chances a president will be elected Thursday? The withdrawal of Franjieh likely means “the deal is done” and Aoun will likely be elected, Young said.
The dynamics have changed since the last failed parliamentary vote.
“Hezbollah is in a weaker position due to escalating tensions with Israel, challenges in Syria and domestic discontent,” Salamey said. “It now needs the protection of a functioning state to rebuild and attract international aid.”
According to Young, “Lebanon today is effectively under some sort of foreign trusteeship.”