Blinken Meets Jordanian, Qatari Leaders on New Mideast Push to Keep Gaza War from Spreading

Palestinian journalist Mohammed Awad reacts as he carries the body of his nephew who was killed in an Israeli strike, at the European Hospital, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip January 6, 2024. REUTERS/Arafat Barbakh
Palestinian journalist Mohammed Awad reacts as he carries the body of his nephew who was killed in an Israeli strike, at the European Hospital, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip January 6, 2024. REUTERS/Arafat Barbakh
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Blinken Meets Jordanian, Qatari Leaders on New Mideast Push to Keep Gaza War from Spreading

Palestinian journalist Mohammed Awad reacts as he carries the body of his nephew who was killed in an Israeli strike, at the European Hospital, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip January 6, 2024. REUTERS/Arafat Barbakh
Palestinian journalist Mohammed Awad reacts as he carries the body of his nephew who was killed in an Israeli strike, at the European Hospital, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip January 6, 2024. REUTERS/Arafat Barbakh

On another urgent diplomatic mission to the Middle East, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Sunday with Arab partners to press for their help in tamping down resurgent fears that Israel’s three-month war against Hamas in Gaza could spread.

In discussions with Qatar’s emir and Jordan’s king, Blinken spoke of the need for Israel to adjust its military operations to reduce civilian casualties and significantly boost the amount of humanitarian aid reaching Gaza, while stressing the importance of preparing detailed plans for the post-conflict future of the Palestinian territory, which has been decimated by Israeli bombardments.

The mission — that will also take him to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank and Egypt before he returns to Washington — is Blinken’s fourth to the region since the war began.

After a day of talks with Turkish and Greek leaders in Istanbul and Crete, Blinken met with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi in Amman before traveling to Doha for talks with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to seek buy-in for US efforts to tamp down resurgent fears that the war could engulf the region, ramp up aid to Gaza and prepare for an eventual end of hostilities.

King Abdullah “warned of the catastrophic repercussions” of the war in Gaza while calling on the US to press for an immediate ceasefire, a statement from the Royal Court said.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Blinken and the monarch agreed to continue close coordination on getting sustained humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

Jordan and other Arab states have been highly critical of Israel's actions and have eschewed public support for long-term planning, arguing that the fighting must end before such discussions can begin. They have been demanding a ceasefire since mid-October as civilian casualties began to skyrocket.

Israel has refused and the US has instead called for specified temporary “humanitarian pauses” to allow aid to get in and people to get to safety.

In Amman, Blinken also toured the World Food Program’s regional coordination warehouse, where trucks are being packed with aid to be delivered to Gaza through both the Rafah and Kerem Shalom crossings.

He commended the work of the WFP and other UN agencies as well as the government of Jordan to get assistance into Gaza.

“The efforts right here to collect and distribute food to people in need are absolutely essential,” Blinken said. “The United States has worked from day one to open access routes into Gaza.”

“We continue to work on that every single day, not only to open them but to multiply them, to maximize them and to try to get more assistance, more effectively,” he said. “We’re determined to do everything we possibly can to ameliorate the situation for the men, women and children in Gaza.”

The US has been pressing Israel for weeks to let greater amounts of food, water, fuel, medicine and other supplies into Gaza, and the UN Security Council passed a resolution on Dec. 22 calling for an immediate increase in deliveries. Three weeks ago, Israel opened Kerem Shalom, adding a second entry point for aid into Gaza after Rafah.

Still, the rate of trucks entering has not risen significantly. This week, an average of around 120 trucks a day entered through Rafah and Kerem Shalom, according to UN figures, far below the 500 trucks of goods going in daily before the war and far below what aid groups say is needed.

Almost the entire population of 2.3 million depends on the trucks coming across the border for their survival. One in four Palestinians in Gaza is starving, and the rest face crisis levels of hunger, according to the UN.

More than 85% of people in Gaza have been driven from their homes by Israeli bombardment and ground offensives. Most live in UN shelters crowded beyond their capacity, in tent camps that have been sprung up, or on the streets.

In Greece on Saturday, Blinken said his trip would be dominated by “not necessarily easy conversations” with allies and partners about what they are willing to do “to build durable peace and security.”

Blinken’s visit comes as developments in Lebanon, northern Israel, the Red Sea and Iraq have put intense strains on what had been a modestly successful US push to prevent a regional conflagration since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, and as international criticism of Israel’s military operation mounts.

“These are not necessarily easy conversations,” he said in Greece. “There are different perspectives, different needs, different requirements, but it is vital that we engage in this diplomacy now both for the sake of Gaza itself and more broadly the sake of the future for Israelis and Palestinians and for the region as a whole.”

He said his priorities are protecting civilians — “far too many Palestinians have been killed” — getting more humanitarian aid into Gaza, ensuring Hamas cannot strike again, and developing a framework for Palestinian-led governance in the territory and “a Palestinian state with security assurances or Israel.”

Hours before Blinken’s meetings on Saturday, Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets at northern Israel and said the barrage was an initial response to the targeted killing, presumably by Israel, of a top leader from the allied Hamas group in Lebanon’s capital this past week. Israel responded in what became one of the heaviest days of cross-border fighting in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, stepped-up attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militias have disrupted international trade and led to increased efforts by the US and its allies to patrol the vital commercial waterway and respond to threats.  

The coalition of countries issued what amounted to a final warning to the Houthis on Wednesday to cease their attacks on vessels or face potential targeted military action. Since Dec. 19, the militants have carried out at least two dozen attacks in response to the Israel-Hamas war.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”