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Iraqi Parliament 2025: New Map for Shiite Seats, Sudani Set to Win Sizable Share

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is seen at Davos in January. (AFP)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is seen at Davos in January. (AFP)
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Iraqi Parliament 2025: New Map for Shiite Seats, Sudani Set to Win Sizable Share

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is seen at Davos in January. (AFP)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is seen at Davos in January. (AFP)

The ruling coalition in Iraq has started drawing up the political scene that will be established from the upcoming parliamentary elections, three sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Asharq Al-Awsat received a copy of a study, completed by the ruling Coordination Framework alliance, that showed that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani will emerge with a powerful coalition that makes up a third of Shiite seats in parliament.

The elections are expected to be held in 2025, but no official date has been set for them yet.

The Framework based its study on the results of the provincial elections that were held in October, a source, who had taken part in the study, told Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity.

The coalition now views Sudani as a potential rival and heavyweight in the Shiite political scene, said another source.

The PM is expected to win some 60 seats in the elections, even though he had not taken part in the October polls, it noted.

The study acknowledged that Sudani had in recent months forged “flexible” alliances with Shiite powers. The source said the Framework had not fully understood his ability to form such alliances given the deep rivalry between the parties that make up the coalition.

Sudani has effectively emerged as a figure to reckon with in the Shiite equation and could emerge as a stronger player in parliament after next year’s elections, said the source.

Sudani’s new alliance

The study said Sudani’s new alliance includes three provincial governors who had emerged victorious in the October elections. It also includes rising Shiite forces and other traditional ones.

The study identified the three figures as Basra Governor Asaad al-Eidani, Karbala Governor Nassif al-Khattabi and Wasit Governor Mohammed al-Mayahi.

The Framework had tried and failed to form alliances that would have prevented the winning governors from renewing their terms at the heads of local governments in their cities.

The governors have since distanced themselves from the Framework, revealed the sources.

A third source said Sudani’s other allies are comprised of political forces that emerged from the October 2019 popular protests, rising local forces that are not represented in parliament, and traditional parties that are close to Iran and that have achieved noticeable results in the elections, such as the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and al-Fadila party.

In total, these powers won 25 seats in the provincial elections.

The three sources predicted that Sudani alone will win some ten seats, while his allies would win 60 in the parliamentary elections, reaping more than a third of the 180 Shiite seats, according to Framework estimates.

New Shiite shift

The source said the political map drawn by the study showed to Framework leaders that they would be confronted with a new shift in the Shiite equation in Iraq that could even lead to the breakup of the coalition itself and form a new equation altogether.

The study predicted that former PM Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition is set to gain 25 seats in the parliamentary elections, Ammar al-Hakim's Hikma movement and former PM Haidar al-Abadi's Nasr coalition 21, and leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq party Qais al-Khazali and leader of the Badr organization Hadi al-Ameri 24, while the remaining seats will be won by other Shiite forces.

The study ruled out the possibility of the Sadrist movement, led by influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, winning more than 70 seats in the elections, should he decide to take part in the vote. Sadr quit political life in 2022. He had won over 70 seats in the 2021 elections.

The Framework expects Sadr to win 60 seats “at best”, said the sources. They noted that Sadr was no longer the sole figure in Iraq with the ability to mobilize the masses. Maliki and others had decided to adopt this approach since the provincial elections.

Alarming figures

On Sudani’s political future, the sources stated that the number of seats the PM could win as revealed by the study have alarmed the Framework.

They predicted that the premier could be offered another term in office in return for withdrawing from the polls and perhaps allowing his allies to run uncontested so that they could rejoin the Framework.

Sudani did not run in the local elections to avoid a clash with the Framework. The PM is the leader of the Al-Furatayn party that he founded in 2019 after splitting with Maliki’s State of Law coalition in wake of the popular protests that erupted late that year.

The leaders of the Framework are seriously dealing with the outcomes of the study. It remains to be seen how it will deal with Sudani’s chances in the parliamentary elections and if Iran will not object to the suggestion to offer him a second term as PM, said the sources.

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Arab World

Hezbollah Unhappy with Political Negotiations with Israel but Unlikely to Confront the State

A joint patrol of UNIFIL forces and the Lebanese Army in the Marjayoun area near the border with Israel (AFP)
A joint patrol of UNIFIL forces and the Lebanese Army in the Marjayoun area near the border with Israel (AFP)
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Hezbollah Unhappy with Political Negotiations with Israel but Unlikely to Confront the State

A joint patrol of UNIFIL forces and the Lebanese Army in the Marjayoun area near the border with Israel (AFP)
A joint patrol of UNIFIL forces and the Lebanese Army in the Marjayoun area near the border with Israel (AFP)

Hezbollah officials have avoided commenting on the Lebanese government’s decision to appoint former ambassador Simon Karam as head of the Lebanese delegation to the “mechanism committee” overseeing the ceasefire with Israel, which effectively shifted the committee’s work from military-technical talks to political negotiations.

A formal party position is expected Friday, to be delivered by Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem in a previously scheduled appearance.

Yet media outlets aligned with Hezbollah, along with its supporters on social platforms, quickly denounced the presidential decision. They described it as “another act of surrender by Lebanon, taken despite the absence of any Israeli willingness to meet Lebanese demands, chief among them ending attacks and violations, withdrawing from occupied territory, and releasing detainees.”

Sources familiar with Hezbollah’s internal discussions told Asharq Al-Awsat that Qassem will reiterate the party’s refusal to enter “a new round of negotiations as long as Israel fails to meet its obligations.”

He is also expected to reference the open letter he sent on November 6 to Lebanon’s President, Parliament Speaker, Premier and the public, stressing rejection of any new talks and reaffirming “the right of resistance.”

The sources added that both Hezbollah and Speaker Nabih Berri are dissatisfied with Karam’s appointment because of his known political stance against “the resistance.”

Still, neither intends to provoke internal conflict. Instead, they will continue working with the state “within the framework of insisting that Lebanon assume responsibility for halting Israeli aggression, recovering land, securing prisoner releases, initiating reconstruction, and above all, preventing another Israeli war.”

On Wednesday evening, Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV criticized the inclusion of a civilian in the mechanism committee, declaring that “the Lebanese state has taken its decisions and must bear their consequences.”

It added that the government “has stepped into the unknown without guaranteed returns,” insisting that “the people of the land will not concede rights or surrender.”

Political analyst Kassem Kassir, who closely follows Hezbollah, stressed that the priority for the party and its supporters remains achieving concrete outcomes: stopping Israeli assaults, withdrawing from occupied land, freeing prisoners, and rebuilding devastated areas.

Ali Al-Amin, editor of the Janoubia news site, recalled that Hezbollah had already informed Lebanon’s leaders of its rejection of negotiations with Israel.

Still, Karam’s appointment was “a Lebanese decision driven by internal considerations,” and the party cannot block it at a time when Israel has threatened a devastating war.

While Hezbollah signaled displeasure - prompting small street protests - it has not issued an outright rejection.

Asked about the party’s red lines, Al-Amin said Hezbollah will not relinquish its weapons, particularly north of the Litani River.

Should the government attempt to enforce disarmament, he warned, confrontation with the army could follow, an outcome still viewed by Hezbollah as less costly than a new Israeli war with unpredictable consequences.

Arab World

Israel Meets Lebanon’s Diplomatic Overture with Strikes on the South

Smoke rises following Israeli airstrikes that targeted the Nabatieh area in May 2025 (Archive – EPA). 
Smoke rises following Israeli airstrikes that targeted the Nabatieh area in May 2025 (Archive – EPA). 
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Israel Meets Lebanon’s Diplomatic Overture with Strikes on the South

Smoke rises following Israeli airstrikes that targeted the Nabatieh area in May 2025 (Archive – EPA). 
Smoke rises following Israeli airstrikes that targeted the Nabatieh area in May 2025 (Archive – EPA). 

Israel on Thursday ended days of ambiguity over whether the recent “positive atmosphere” created by civilian negotiations with Lebanon might ease tensions. Instead, it launched four airstrikes targeting homes in South Lebanon, including one north of the Litani River.

The attacks came less than 24 hours after the latest meeting of the joint “mechanism” committee.

The escalation appeared to answer leaked Lebanese reports that Ambassador Simon Karam, head of Lebanon’s negotiating delegation, had been tasked with discussing a cessation of hostilities, a prisoner exchange, Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanese areas, and technical adjustments along the Blue Line.

Al-Jadeed channel quoted President Joseph Aoun as saying Lebanon “has not entered normalization nor signed a peace agreement.”

At Thursday’s cabinet session, Aoun presented his decision to appoint Karam after consultations with Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, stressing the need for talks in Naqoura and for a civilian figure in the delegation.

The initial meeting, he said, “was not expected to be highly productive,” but it paved the way for subsequent sessions beginning on the 19th. “The language of negotiation must replace the language of war,” he added.

Army Commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal also submitted his monthly report on enforcing the state’s monopoly over arms, outlining operations south of the Litani River. Lebanese media reported a significant step in this direction: the army, accompanied by UNIFIL, reportedly seized Hezbollah rockets in the area.

As Lebanon tries to widen the diplomatic window to contain tensions and avert a large-scale Israeli attack, two contrasting messages have emerged from Israel. One camp welcomed the appointment of Karam, while another insists on separating diplomacy from military operations and preventing negotiations from influencing conditions on the ground.

This harder line became clear when Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee warned residents of Mahrouna, Bar’ashit, al-Majadal (south of the Litani), and Jbaa (north of it) to evacuate at least 300 meters away because the army would soon strike Hezbollah infrastructure across the south.

Hours later, Israel carried out the strikes, saying it targeted depots embedded in residential areas - an example, it claimed, of Hezbollah’s use of civilian buildings for military purposes.

MP Ashraf Rifi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the political and security climate “remains dangerous despite the sense of relief surrounding the negotiations.” Messages from Israeli officials, he said, show that talks “do not automatically halt targeting of Hezbollah or its weapons,” adding that escalation “remains highly possible.”

Rifi said Israel has “a clear strategic project aimed at ending Iranian influence across the Arab region,” and if it concludes that Lebanon cannot disarm Hezbollah, it “may resort to military action.”

He cited the return of Israeli drones over Beirut as proof that Lebanon “remains squarely within the circle of threat.”

MP Akram Chehayeb of the Democratic Gathering said the essential question is whether Israel genuinely seeks peace, given ongoing actions against Palestinians. He argued that a return to the 1949 Armistice framework would be a major gain for Lebanon, recalling earlier negotiation rounds, including those leading to the 2022 maritime agreement.

 

 

 

Arab World

'Land Without laws': Israeli Settlers Force Bedouins from West Bank Community

AFP visited Ahmed Kaabneh weeks before he was forced to flee his home in the al-Hathrura area. Menahem Kahana / AFP
AFP visited Ahmed Kaabneh weeks before he was forced to flee his home in the al-Hathrura area. Menahem Kahana / AFP
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'Land Without laws': Israeli Settlers Force Bedouins from West Bank Community

AFP visited Ahmed Kaabneh weeks before he was forced to flee his home in the al-Hathrura area. Menahem Kahana / AFP
AFP visited Ahmed Kaabneh weeks before he was forced to flee his home in the al-Hathrura area. Menahem Kahana / AFP

As relentless harassment from Israeli settlers drove his brothers from their Bedouin community in the central occupied West Bank, Ahmed Kaabneh remained determined to stay on the land his family had lived on for generations.

But when a handful of young settlers constructed a shack around 100 meters above his home and started intimidating his children, 45-year-old Kaabneh said he had no choice but to flee too.

As with scores of Bedouin communities across the West Bank, the small cluster of wood and metal houses where Kaabneh's father and grandfather had lived now lies empty.

"It is very difficult... because you leave an area where you lived for 45 years. Not a day or two or three, but nearly a lifetime," Kaabneh told AFP at his family's new makeshift house in the rocky hills north of Jericho.

"But what can you do? They are the strong ones and we are the weak, and we have no power."

Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967, and violence there has soared since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023 following Hamas's attack on Israel.

Some 3,200 Palestinians from dozens of Bedouin and herding communities have been forced from their homes by settler violence and movement restrictions since October 2023, the UN's humanitarian agency OCHA reported in October.

The United Nations said this October was the worst month for settler violence since it began recording incidents in 2006.

Almost none of the perpetrators have been held to account by the Israeli authorities.

'Terrifying'

Kaabneh, four of his brothers and their families, now live together some 13 kilometers (eight miles) northeast of their original homes, which sat in the al-Hathrura area.

Outside his freshly constructed metal house, boys kicked a football while washing hung from the line. But Kaabneh said the area didn't feel like home.

"We are in a place we have never lived in before, and life here is hard," he said.

Alongside surging violence, the number of settler outposts has exploded in the West Bank.

While all Israeli settlements are illegal under international law, outposts are also prohibited under Israeli law. But many end up being legalized by the Israeli authorities.

AFP had visited Kaabneh in the al-Hathrura area weeks before he was forced to flee.

On the dirt road to his family's compound, caravans and an Israeli flag atop a hill marked an outpost established earlier this year -- one of several to have sprung up in the area.

On the other side of the track, in the valley, lay the wreckage of another Bedouin compound whose residents had recently fled.

While in Kaabneh's cluster of homes, AFP witnessed two settlers driving to the top of a hill to surveil the Bedouins below.

"The situation is terrifying," Kaabneh said at the time, with life becoming almost untenable because of daily harassment and shrinking grazing land.

Less than three weeks later, the homes were deserted.

Kaabneh said the settlers "would shout all night, throw stones, and walk through the middle of the houses."

"They didn't allow us to sleep at night, nor move freely during the day."

'Thrive on chaos'

These days, only activists and the odd cat wander the remnants of Kaabneh's former life -- where upturned children's bikes and discarded shoes reveal the chaotic departure.

"We are here to keep an eye on the property... because a lot of places that are abandoned are usually looted by the settlements," said Sahar Kan-Tor, 29, an Israeli activist with the Israeli-Palestinian grassroots group Standing Together.

Meanwhile, settlers with a quadbike and digger were busy dismantling their hilltop shack and replacing it with a sofa and table.

"They thrive on chaos," Kan-Tor explained.

"It is, in a way, a land without laws. There (are) authorities roaming around, but nothing is enforced, or very rarely enforced."

A report by Israeli settlement watchdogs last December said settlers had used shepherding outposts to seize 14 percent of the West Bank in recent years.

NGOs Peace Now and Kerem Navot said settlers were acting "with the backing of the Israeli government and military".

Some members of Israel's right-wing government are settlers themselves, and far-right ministers have called for the West Bank's annexation.

Kan-Tor said he believed settlers were targeting this stretch of the West Bank because of its significance for a contiguous Palestinian state.

But Kaabneh said the threat of attacks loomed even in his new location in the east of the territory.

He said settlers had already driven along the track leading to his family's homes and watched them from the hill above.

"Even this area, which should be considered safe, is not truly safe," Kaabneh lamented.

"They pursue us everywhere."