Undeclared Truce in Iraq Allows Sudani to Mend Ties with Washington

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani speaks during an interview with Reuters in Baghdad, Iraq January 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani speaks during an interview with Reuters in Baghdad, Iraq January 9, 2024. (Reuters)
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Undeclared Truce in Iraq Allows Sudani to Mend Ties with Washington

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani speaks during an interview with Reuters in Baghdad, Iraq January 9, 2024. (Reuters)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani speaks during an interview with Reuters in Baghdad, Iraq January 9, 2024. (Reuters)

For the second consecutive week, Iraqi armed factions did not carry out attacks against American troops deployed at the country’s western Ain al-Asad base and Harir base near Erbil in the Kurdistan Region.

Circles close to the factions claimed that the calm prevailed in wake of a visit by Iranian Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani to Baghdad last week.

Other informed sources stressed, however, that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani should be credited for the calm after he held a series of meetings with the top Shiite leaders in the pro-Iran Coordination Framework.

The sources close to the factions and Tehran continued to assert that the agreement to restore calm was reached after the Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most prominent pro-Iran factions, decided to suspend its operations against American interests in Iraq and Syria.

Other political sources refuted the claim, saying that had the calm been arranged by Qaani, it would have involved the Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada factions, which had both openly rejected the truce declared by Kataib Hezbollah.

They vowed to continue their operations, saying the Kataib Hezbollah should join them.

The sources said Qaani made a surprise visit to Baghdad where he informed the factions of the need to de-escalate the situation to avert more retaliatory American strikes that could “target their leaders or main infrastructure or even seek direct revenge against Iran.”

The calm continues to hold in spite of the objection expressed by some parties.

Meanwhile, an Iraqi political source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the truce was arranged by PM Sudani, who is also commander of the armed forces.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the PM took firm stances towards achieving this calm, especially since the attacks started to pose a threat to Iraq’s security and stability.

He informed all parties the need to restore calm so that communication could continue between him and American officials within the joint military commission.

The commission had kicked off meetings two weeks ago and is aimed at reaching an understanding over how to arrange relations between Baghdad and the international coalition fighting ISIS, as well as discuss the future of the American troop deployment in Iraq.

The source revealed that contacts were made with the Iranians – through main Shiite leaders who enjoy ties with them – to allow the government the opportunity to reach an understanding with the coalition and over the American deployment. These agreements cannot be reached without lengthy negotiations.

The source underscored Sudani’s keenness on shifting relations with the coalition to the bilateral level, while also taking into account Iran’s desire to prevent the conflict from spreading. This position aligns with Washington’s that also wants to avoid an escalation.

The PM has even received an invitation from US Vice President Kamal Harris to visit Washington, reflecting the balanced position he has managed to reach between the US and Iran.

Sudani was expected to visit Washington to meet President Joe Biden in September 2023, but the plans fell through for undisclosed reasons.



Why Is Israel Repeating Claims of Weapons Smuggling from Egypt?

A general view of the Philadelphi Corridor along the border between southern Gaza and Egypt (AFP)
A general view of the Philadelphi Corridor along the border between southern Gaza and Egypt (AFP)
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Why Is Israel Repeating Claims of Weapons Smuggling from Egypt?

A general view of the Philadelphi Corridor along the border between southern Gaza and Egypt (AFP)
A general view of the Philadelphi Corridor along the border between southern Gaza and Egypt (AFP)

Israel said its military had downed a drone carrying weapons that it claimed entered from Egyptian territory, in an incident that experts say reflects ongoing tensions between the two neighbors and may be aimed at pressuring Cairo over its opposition to the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza.

In a statement on Tuesday evening, the Israeli military said it had detected a drone attempting to smuggle weapons from Egypt into Israel around the Paran Brigade, near the border.

The drone was intercepted by Israeli forces. Upon arrival at the scene, security personnel located the drone, four weapons and ammunition, the army said, adding that the seized items were handed over to Israeli police.

The French news agency AFP also cited the statement, noting no casualties were reported.

The incident is the latest in a series of claims by Israel alleging that drones or weapons have entered its territory from Egypt.

In February, Israel said it had shot down a drone crossing from Egypt, and in October, it reported intercepting another drone it said was smuggling arms.

Egypt has not issued an official response to the latest incident, but a senior Egyptian military analyst dismissed the Israeli claims.

Retired General Samir Farag told Asharq Al-Awsat that Egyptian territory is “secure and tightly controlled,” rejecting any suggestion that it is being used to smuggle arms into Israel.

He said the repeated Israeli claims were a “pretext to justify the continued mobilization of the Israeli army and the war on Gaza” amid growing domestic unrest in Israel.

Cairo has been a central mediator in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas and has staunchly opposed any plan to forcibly displace Palestinians from the besieged enclave.

Israel has recently seen mounting anti-war protests from current and former soldiers, as well as civilians.

The demonstrations were sparked by an April 9 letter signed by a group of Israeli air force pilots demanding the immediate release of hostages held in Gaza—even if it meant halting the war.

The letter has since been backed by more soldiers, artists, intellectuals and public figures, further fueling pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to reconsider its war strategy.

Former Egyptian diplomats and analysts have also dismissed Israeli claims that a drone carrying weapons entered its territory from Egypt, describing the move as part of a broader strategy by Tel Aviv to apply psychological and political pressure amid strained bilateral ties.

Ambassador Rakha Ahmed Hassan, a former assistant to Egypt’s foreign minister, said Israel’s allegations are consistent with its use of “hybrid warfare,” which includes military, psychological, and media tactics designed to manipulate other parties.

“These accusations are baseless,” Hassan told Asharq Al-Awsat, adding that their repetition reflects growing internal pressure in Israel—both economic and military—as well as tension in relations with Cairo.

Hassan said Tel Aviv is frustrated with Egypt’s firm rejection of any plan to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza and its active diplomatic efforts to rally international support for reconstruction without resettlement.

“Israel is trying to deflect attention by repeatedly targeting Egypt’s role,” he said, pointing to recent Israeli media reports questioning Egypt’s military buildup in Sinai.

Israeli outlets have published reports in recent days alleging an unprecedented Egyptian military presence near the border, which some in Israel have claimed violates the 1979 peace treaty between the two countries.

Dr. Said Okasha, an expert on Israeli affairs at Egypt’s Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, echoed these concerns, saying the drone claim is a reflection of current tensions with Cairo.

“It’s puzzling that Israel would make such statements publicly when there are well-established channels for handling border security issues through joint coordination committees,” Okasha said.

He added that the move appears aimed at undermining Egypt’s credibility as a mediator in the Gaza ceasefire talks while also serving as a distraction for Israel’s domestic audience amid growing protests over the government’s inability to end the conflict.