EU Warns Israel Against ‘Catastrophic’ Rafah Offensive 

Palestinian brothers warm up by a fire in front of a destroyed building during an Israeli military operation in the Al Nusairat refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip, 19 February 2024. (EPA) 
Palestinian brothers warm up by a fire in front of a destroyed building during an Israeli military operation in the Al Nusairat refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip, 19 February 2024. (EPA) 
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EU Warns Israel Against ‘Catastrophic’ Rafah Offensive 

Palestinian brothers warm up by a fire in front of a destroyed building during an Israeli military operation in the Al Nusairat refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip, 19 February 2024. (EPA) 
Palestinian brothers warm up by a fire in front of a destroyed building during an Israeli military operation in the Al Nusairat refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip, 19 February 2024. (EPA) 

The European Union on Monday warned Israel against launching an offensive in Rafah that ministers said would create a disaster for the roughly 1.5 million refugees crammed into the city on the southern edge of Gaza.

"An attack on Rafah would be absolutely catastrophic ... it would be unconscionable," Ireland's Foreign Minister Micheal Martin said before a meeting with foreign ministers from the 27 EU member states in Brussels.

"Over 1.5 million people are crowded into a very small corner of Gaza. They're weary, they are exhausted, they have nowhere else to go - how can anyone contemplate adding to that trauma?" he said.

Israel is preparing to mount a ground invasion of the enclave's southernmost city, which it has called a last bastion of Hamas control after nearly five months of fighting.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Friday the Israeli military (IDF) was planning operations in Rafah targeting Hamas fighters, command centers and tunnels, stressing that "extraordinary measures" were being taken to avoid civilian casualties.

Israel accuses Hamas fighters of hiding among civilians, something the militant group denies.

But EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that avoiding those casualties would be impossible.

"We have to continue putting pressure on Israel to make them understand that there are so many people in the streets of Rafah, it will be impossible to avoid civilian casualties," he said.

"This, certainly, will be against the respect of humanitarian law."

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also called on Israel to respect humanitarian law, but added Israel had the "right to self-defense" as she said it was clear that Hamas fighters were still operating from Rafah.

"The most important thing would be that Hamas would lay down its weapons," she said.

"But Israel has to comply with international humanitarian law. Over a million people went to the south of Gaza because the IDF told them so. They can't just disappear in the sky."

Baerbock repeated her call for a "humanitarian ceasefire", to allow refugees to go back home in the north of Gaza.



Hamas Comes Under Pressure in Lebanon

The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
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Hamas Comes Under Pressure in Lebanon

The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)

Relations between Hamas and the Lebanese state have entered a critical phase not seen since the country’s civil war era. In a rare and direct move, Lebanon’s Supreme Defense Council on Friday named Hamas in an official warning, cautioning the group against using Lebanese territories to conduct activities that threaten national security.

The warning follows rocket attacks in March, allegedly launched by Hamas operatives toward Israel from southern Lebanon, and signals a turning point in Beirut’s handling of the longstanding issue of Palestinian arms.

The issue is expected to dominate discussions during the upcoming visit of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to Beirut on May 21. Lebanese authorities are reportedly preparing to demand that Hamas hand over individuals implicated in the rocket attacks.

Hamas officials in Lebanon declined to comment immediately, but sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that an official statement from the group is forthcoming.

Last month, the Lebanese army said it had identified those responsible for the March 22 and 28 rocket launches, revealing a cell composed of Lebanese and Palestinian nationals. Subsequent raids led to several arrests and the seizure of equipment used in the attacks. Security sources later confirmed the detention of three Hamas members - two Palestinians and one Lebanese.

Analysts and insiders believe Hamas now finds itself increasingly isolated in Lebanon. According to Palestinian political analyst Hisham Debassy, the group has little choice but to comply with Lebanese demands, including potentially disarming.

“The Defense Council’s position marks a serious and strategic shift,” said Debassy. “It sends a strong political message not just to Hamas but to any non-state actor operating militarily on Lebanese soil.”

Debassy described Hamas as being at a crossroads. “Either it cooperates with Lebanese authorities by handing over wanted individuals and signaling respect for state sovereignty, or it continues down a path of confrontation, an option that carries significant political and security costs.”

He noted that Hamas currently lacks the internal cohesion and public support to take a defiant stance. Internal divisions have grown between factions aligned with Iran and others favoring political reintegration within the broader Muslim Brotherhood framework.

Political analyst Dr. Qassem Qassir said Hamas’ leadership, based largely in Qatar, remains mindful of Lebanon’s fragile security. “Hamas doesn’t want to endanger Lebanon,” he said, adding that the group is likely to act cautiously given the broader regional context.

Meanwhile, Abbas’ visit is seen as an opportunity to reshape Palestinian-Lebanese relations and advance state authority in Palestinian camps. Lebanese officials are seeking a roadmap, backed by the Palestinian Authority, that could lead to the phased dismantling of weapons in refugee camps, following similar efforts targeting pro-Syrian Palestinian factions in the Bekaa and Naameh regions.

Hamas’ presence in Lebanon had traditionally been limited to social and political activities. But its military footprint began to emerge after a 2022 explosion in the Burj al-Shemali camp. Since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, Hamas’s armed wing has become more active in southern Lebanon, coordinating with Hezbollah in launching attacks on Israel, further complicating its position with Lebanese authorities.