Political sources in Beirut warned Lebanon could emerge as the biggest loser when the current regional war ends, outlining their concerns to Asharq Al-Awsat.
Lebanon is heading toward a severe internal crisis, the sharpest in its modern history with the dispute centering on Hezbollah’s weapons.
The majority of Shiites in the country insists on keeping them, while most other segments say Lebanon’s survival depends on implementing government decisions to limit arms to the state, in line with Lebanese, Arab, and international positions.
The sources noted that Hezbollah has again entered a regional war it cannot influence, risking burdens Lebanon cannot bear.
Hefty price
The war is proving costly for those involved and for countries hit by its spillover.
A ceasefire would likely show Iran suffered heavy damage to its defense, industrial sectors, and infrastructure, potentially setting it back decades. But its size, energy resources, and experience with economic hardship may help it manage the aftermath, unless losses destabilize the system.
Iranian missiles are expected to have caused damage to Israeli institutions and infrastructure, despite a high interception rate. The cost of interception is steep, but Israel appears ready to absorb it, calling the conflict an existential war and relying on strong US support.
Lebanon will struggle the most. Its economy is already near collapse. The country faces a catastrophic situation, with about one million displaced and heavy destruction along the border with Israel.
Israel has said it intends to establish a “buffer zone” inside Lebanese territory, signaling a return of occupation to parts of the country “pending guarantees for the safety of Galilee residents.”
The most dangerous scenario is that Israel’s campaign on the Lebanese front continues even if a ceasefire is reached between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other.
The fallout is worsened by a deepening rift among Lebanon’s components, raising the risk of internal conflict.
The role of parliament Speaker Nabih Berri appears diminished as the conflict widens. The current crisis over the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador reflects a deeper divide between the Shiite camp and others over weapons, the war, and Lebanon’s regional role.
Hezbollah described the expulsion as a “sin”, demanding that the government reverse it.
‘Impossible to coexist’
Voices are rising in Lebanon, warning that it was “impossible to coexist” between a “quasi-state” and a “Hezbollah’s statelet.”
Countries that once backed Lebanon’s reconstruction, especially in the Gulf, are now focused on their own losses from Iranian attacks. They have also made clear that they will not help unless the Lebanese state takes full control over decisions of war and peace.
The sources reiterated their warning that Lebanon risks being the biggest loser, especially if Israel expands its ground offensive and internal divisions deepen to the point of questioning the country’s very formula of coexistence.
