UN Warns of Profound Liquidity Crisis in Yemen’s Houthi-Controlled Areas

For the first time, the Houthis will face difficulties in financial transfers and foreign currency supply (local media)
For the first time, the Houthis will face difficulties in financial transfers and foreign currency supply (local media)
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UN Warns of Profound Liquidity Crisis in Yemen’s Houthi-Controlled Areas

For the first time, the Houthis will face difficulties in financial transfers and foreign currency supply (local media)
For the first time, the Houthis will face difficulties in financial transfers and foreign currency supply (local media)

A UN program recently warned of low foreign currency reserves and a liquidity crisis in Houthi-controlled areas if the economic conflict with the internationally recognized government continues in Yemen.

It also noted that the poor food consumption significantly worsened in the north, increasing by 78% year-on-year, compared to a 52% increase in the south.

In its Food Security Update, the World Food Program (WFP) warned that a banking crisis is looming in Yemen, as a transaction ban has been announced between the intentionally recognized government and the Houthis-controlled areas.

“These developments, coupled with diminished foreign currency reserves in the north, could result in liquidity crisis with profound implications on markets, livelihoods, and food security situation,” it said.

The Program also noted that the current escalation in the “economic conflict” is likely to disrupt the flow of remittances and the overall financial and banking sectors, posing significant challenges for importers to procure essential food and non-food items, and ultimately impacting food supply and food price.

According to the WFP Update, this conflict comes while limited income opportunities are a key challenge to accessing food, reported by 71% in the north and 60% in the south.

It added that the depth and severity of food deprivation (poor food consumption) also peaked in May, at 32% in the north and 31% in the south.

This trend significantly worsened in the north, increasing by 78% year-on-year, compared to a 52% increase in the south.

Severe food deprivation reached an all-time high in Al Jawf, Al Bayda, Hajjah, Amran, and Al Hodeidah, WFP said.

Around 8% of households in the north reported relying on begging to meet their essential needs, compared to three percent in the south, it showed, adding that this practice was particularly pronounced in Sadah, Hajjah, Amran, and Al Bayda.

WFP also said the total volume of fuel imported via the Red Sea ports increased by 32% during Jan-May 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

Fuel imports via the southern ports of Aden and Mukalla decreased by 41% year-on-year, as local crude oil production from Marib largely contributes to covering domestic fuel needs in government controlled areas.

However, the WFP update said it is crucial to closely monitor import flows over the coming months, especially given the increased insurance costs for Yemeni ports, the diminished foreign currency reserves, and the banking crisis.

Also, by the end of May 2024, WFP said that the Yemeni riyal (YER) depreciated to an all-time low of YER 1,749 per dollar in government-controlled areas, losing around 25% of its value against the US dollar year-on-year.

“This decline is primarily attributed to low foreign currency reserves and revenue shortages due to reduced crude oil exports,” it said.

The UN program also noted that the overall volume of food imports via all Yemeni seaports increased by 22% during the first five months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

However, it showed that the Red Sea ports saw a 35% annual rise in food imports during Jan-May 2024, while the southern ports of Aden and Mukalla exhibited a 16% annual decline.



Iraq Frustrated by Iran’s Reluctance to Rein in Militias

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
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Iraq Frustrated by Iran’s Reluctance to Rein in Militias

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has cautioned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the threats facing Iraq due to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran (X)

A senior government official said Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has warned leaders of the Coordination Framework about the “risks to Iraq” from the growing conflict between Israel and Iran.

The official added that Iran is using “deception” when asked to distance its allied militias from the war.

Political and government figures are increasingly worried that Iraq could be hit, after two Israeli soldiers were killed in a drone strike on the Golan Heights early Friday.

Speaking anonymously to Asharq Al-Awsat, the official said al-Sudani is taking steps to keep Iraq out of the conflict.

These efforts include ramping up “political mediation” to persuade militias not to involve Iraq. The prime minister “informed Coordination Framework leaders of the risks” and urged them to “act quickly.”

The official also warned that an attack is still possible, saying intelligence shows the Iraqi militias launched the strike from outside Iraq, using weapons that came from Iraqi territory.

Al-Sudani’s Mediation Efforts

The Iraqi premier has chosen mediators, approved by Iran, to negotiate with militias about the conflict and conditions for de-escalation. These three individuals have previously acted as mediators in past crises.

Last week, Asharq Al-Awsat reported that al-Sudani asked three key Shiite figures to intervene and prevent militias from getting involved in the war between Hezbollah and Israel, after reports surfaced that Israel had identified 35 Iraqi targets.

Sources confirmed that Ammar al-Hakim is among the mediators, along with two other influential Shiite leaders whose names haven’t been disclosed.

However, two Iraqi militias—likely the al-Nujaba Movement led by Akram al-Kaabi and Kataib Hezbollah led by Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi—have refused to cooperate and continue launching rocket attacks on Israel.

The Iraqi official admitted that some militias are “stubborn,” but stressed that al-Sudani knows Iraq is “at the center of the storm.”

He reportedly told leaders of the Coordination Framework, “Iraq cannot avoid a military strike if it happens, so we must stay out of the war to protect the country.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a Friday sermon, stated that “Iran’s allies in the region won’t back down,” increasing concerns that Iraqi militias tied to Iran will continue attacking Israel.

Iraqi sources also reported that the Coordination Framework has reviewed an “intelligence report” on dozens of Iraqi targets that Israel might strike or assassinate.

Government Efforts to Prevent Escalation

Al-Sudani has blocked the flow of Iraqi funds into conflict zones, unlike previous leaders, according to the official.

He has worked closely with the US and its Treasury Department to strictly monitor financial movements, often insisting that Iran uses official channels to claim its dues from Iraq.

The official also said global auditing firms are now helping Iraq’s central bank oversee financial transactions, shutting down all previous routes for illicit money flows.

Since the Gaza war began on October 7, 2023, the US told Iraq it pressured Israel not to strike Iraq, as long as Iraq stays out of the conflict, the official added.

The US doesn’t oppose Iraq’s stance of condemning Israel, supporting Lebanon and Palestine, and sending aid.

But it “won’t accept any financial or military support to militias.”

Regarding Iran’s role, the official said Tehran claims militias act independently, dodging responsibility for reining them in.