Iraq Doesn't Expect Major Changes with Pezeshkian’s Election as Iran’s President

A man holds up a poster of Iran's newly-elected president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on July 6, 2024. (AFP)
A man holds up a poster of Iran's newly-elected president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on July 6, 2024. (AFP)
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Iraq Doesn't Expect Major Changes with Pezeshkian’s Election as Iran’s President

A man holds up a poster of Iran's newly-elected president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on July 6, 2024. (AFP)
A man holds up a poster of Iran's newly-elected president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on July 6, 2024. (AFP)

Iraq welcomed on Saturday the election of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian as president of Iran.

Officials congratulated him on his victory, calling for bolstering relations. Meanwhile, experts predicted little change in Iran’s policy towards Iraq given the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) influence over the file.

Pezeshkian won the runoff election on Saturday, defeating ultraconservative Saeed Jalili.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani congratulated Pezeshkian on his win, wishing him success and stressing the depth of relations between their countries.

He called for maintaining coordination at the highest levels in all fields to serve common interests.

Iraqi President Abdullatif Rashid congratulated Iran on the success of the elections and Pezeshkian on his victory. He stressed his keenness on boosting ties with Tehran.

President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region Nechervan Barzani offered his congratulations, saying he was looking forward to developing “the old friendship and continuing joint cooperation with Iran based on joint interests and the principle of good neighborliness.”

Kurdistan Prime Minister Masrour Barzani described Iran as an important neighbor to the Region and Iraq. He also said Erbil was keen on deepening relations with it.

Sudani’s advisor for international affairs Farhad Alaaldin said Pezeshkian’s time in office will be a “natural extension of the presidency of late President Ebrahim Raisi.”

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said Iraq looks to the “constants” in relations with Iran regardless of the people in power.

Raisi was planning on visiting Baghdad before he died. Iraq is now looking forward to Pezeshkian continuing what his predecessor was working on, he went on to say.

Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei has advised Pezeshkian to follow in Raisi’s footsteps.

Head of the Waey movement Salah al-Arbawi said the victory of a reformist candidate will lead to little change in policy in Iran. However, the election of a Republican American president, with a history with Iran, will lead to several changes in the region, he added in reference to Donald Trump.

Iraq is greatly affected by regional and international developments, he told Asharq Al-Awsat. “The rise of reformists in Iran and Trump’s expected victory is a double-edged sword.”

He added that Iraq does not have a full control over its “sovereign decision-making" and it is usually vulnerable to developments between Iran and the US, which demanded that authorities maintain a policy of disassociation.

Political science professor at the Al-Nahrain University Yassine Bakri said Iran’s foreign policy is shaped by several circles, but Khamenei ultimately has the final say, especially in strategic issues.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the IRGC primarily handles Iraqi affairs. The IRGC works a lot closer to Khamenei than the foreign ministry and president.

So, it doesn’t really matter whether a reformist or hardliner wins the presidency in Iran, he explained.



Netanyahu ‘Takes Revenge’ on Macron in Lebanon

 A photo of Netanyahu and Macron during their meeting in Jerusalem in October 2023 (AFP)
 A photo of Netanyahu and Macron during their meeting in Jerusalem in October 2023 (AFP)
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Netanyahu ‘Takes Revenge’ on Macron in Lebanon

 A photo of Netanyahu and Macron during their meeting in Jerusalem in October 2023 (AFP)
 A photo of Netanyahu and Macron during their meeting in Jerusalem in October 2023 (AFP)

Israel’s insistence that France can not be a member of the international committee that will monitor a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon is due to a series of French practices that have disturbed Israel recently, political sources in Tel Aviv revealed.
These practices are most notably attributed to the French judge at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, who has joined other judges to unanimously issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, the sources revealed.
“The Israeli government is following with concern the French role at The Hague,” they said, noting that veteran French lawyer Gilles Devers led a team of 300 international lawyers of various nationalities who volunteered to accuse Israel of “committing war crimes and crimes against humanity.”
According to the Israeli Maariv newspaper, Israeli officials believe that Devers, who signed the arrest warrant against Netanyahu and Galant, would not have dared to do so without having received a green light from French President Emmanuel Macron.
Israeli sources also mentioned other reasons for Israel’s anger at France, such as the government’s decision to bar Israeli firms from exhibiting at the Euronaval arms show near Paris earlier this month.
French officials have repeatedly said that Paris is committed to Israel's security and point out that its military helped defend Israel after Iranian attacks in April and earlier this month.
Paris has so far also refused to recognize the Palestinian state. But the Israeli government is not satisfied. It wants France to follow the United States and blindly support its war in Gaza and Lebanon.
Tel Aviv also feels incredibly confident that France should be punished, and therefore, decided that Paris could not participate in the Lebanese ceasefire agreement, knowing that the Israeli government itself has traveled to Paris several times begging for its intervention, especially during the war on Lebanon.
Meanwhile, an air of optimism has emerged in Israel around the chances for an end to the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon following negotiations led by US envoy Amos Hochstein.
But any optimism relies on Netanyahu’s final decision. The PM is still conducting talks with his friends and allies of the far right who reject the ceasefire agreement and instead, demand that Lebanese citizens not be allowed to return to their villages on the border with Israel. They also request that a security belt be turned into a permanently depopulated and mined zone.
Hochstein Talks
Meanwhile, political sources in Israel claim that what is holding up a ceasefire deal so far is Lebanon. According to Israel's Channel 12, Hochstein expressed a “firm stance” during his talks with the Lebanese side. The envoy delivered clear terms that were passed on to Hezbollah, which the channel said “led to significant progress” in the talks.
Israeli officials said that Tel Aviv is moving towards a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon with Hezbollah in the coming days.
The channel said that during his late visit to Tel Aviv, coming from Beirut after talks with Speaker Nabih Barri, Hochstein said, “I placed before them (Lebanese officials) a final warning, and it seems to have been effective.”
Iran Obstacle
Despite the “positive atmosphere,” informed diplomatic sources pointed to a major obstacle: Iran.
Channel 12 quoted the sources as saying that Lebanon has not yet received the final approval required from Iran, which has significant influence over Hezbollah.

According to the draft proposal, the Lebanese Army must be redeployed to the south and carry out a comprehensive operation to remove weapons from villages. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will “supervise and monitor the implementation of the operation.”
Channel 12 said Israel believes that such details could still derail the agreement. It also said that Hezbollah could violate the truce.
“In such cases, Israel would have to conduct military operations inside the Lebanese territory,” the channel reported, adding that “one of the unsettled issues is related to the committee that will oversee the implementation of the agreement between Israel and Lebanon.”
The sources said Tel Aviv “insists that France is not part of the agreement, nor part of the committee that will oversee its implementation.”