US Expresses Concern Over Escalating Middle East Conflict Risk 

White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby speaks during the daily press briefing at the White House, in Washington, DC, USA, 31 July 2024. (EPA)
White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby speaks during the daily press briefing at the White House, in Washington, DC, USA, 31 July 2024. (EPA)
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US Expresses Concern Over Escalating Middle East Conflict Risk 

White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby speaks during the daily press briefing at the White House, in Washington, DC, USA, 31 July 2024. (EPA)
White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby speaks during the daily press briefing at the White House, in Washington, DC, USA, 31 July 2024. (EPA)

The White House on Wednesday voiced concern about the increased risk of an escalation into a broader Middle East war after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran drew threats of retaliation against Israel.

Speaking to reporters, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said, however, that Washington did not see an all-out conflict in the region as imminent or inevitable and that it was working to prevent that from happening.

"When you have events - dramatic events, violent events caused by whatever actor - it certainly doesn't make the task of achieving that outcome any easier," Kirby told a daily briefing in Washington.

He said the US still believed there was a "viable" process to reach a ceasefire deal to end more than nine months of fighting between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, despite concerns that effort had been dealt a serious blow.

The Palestinian armed group Hamas and Iran's Revolutionary Guards confirmed the death of Haniyeh, who had participated in internationally-brokered indirect talks on reaching a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave. The Guards said it took place hours after he attended a swearing-in ceremony for Iran's new president.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government issued no claim of responsibility. The Israeli leader also made no mention of Haniyeh's killing in a televised statement but said Israel had delivered crushing blows to Iran's proxies of late, including Hamas and Hezbollah, and would respond forcefully to any attack.

The assassination occurred less than 24 hours after Israel claimed to have killed Hezbollah's most senior military commander in the Lebanese capital Beirut in retaliation for a deadly rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

CONCERNS OF ESCALATION

"We don't want to see an escalation," Kirby said. "Those risks go up and down every day. They are certainly up right now. They don't make the task of de-escalation, deterrence and dissuasion - which is the goal - any less complicated."

While saying he could not confirm Haniyeh's death, Kirby referred to comments by Iran’s Ali Khamenei. The Supreme Leader said Israel had provided the grounds for "harsh punishment for itself" and it was Tehran's duty to avenge Haniyeh's death.

Iranian forces had already made strikes directly on Israel earlier in the Gaza war, which was triggered by a Hamas-led cross-border attack on Israel on Oct. 7.

Kirby declined to say whether the US was urging restraint by Israel.

While the latest events appear to set back any prospects for an imminent ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Kirby said: "We haven't seen any indications ... that the process has been completely torpedoed."

"We still believe the deal on the table is worth pursuing," he added.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at an event in Singapore, sidestepped a question on Haniyeh's killing, saying a ceasefire deal in Gaza was key to avoiding wider regional conflict. He told Channel News Asia that the US had neither been aware of nor involved in the killing.

Blinken spoke by phone to Jordanian and Qatari leaders, and the State Department said they discussed regional tensions and efforts to reach a Gaza ceasefire.

The United States will take every possible measure to protect its personnel and interests in the Middle East after recent attacks there, US State Department Deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters.

The US also urged its citizens to not travel to Lebanon, citing rising tensions between Israel and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah.



Crisis in French-Algerian Relations Opens the Door to the Unknown

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and French President Emmanuel Macron (Algerian Presidency)
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and French President Emmanuel Macron (Algerian Presidency)
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Crisis in French-Algerian Relations Opens the Door to the Unknown

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and French President Emmanuel Macron (Algerian Presidency)
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and French President Emmanuel Macron (Algerian Presidency)

Three questions are raised by the decision of French President Emmanuel Macron to adopt the Moroccan approach to the Sahara issue, which is included in the Rabat Plan proposed in 2007: the first is the timing, the second is the reasons and motivations, and the third is the consequences and results.
Macron, along with French diplomacy, are aware of how sensitive the Sahara issue is to Algeria, and they know that the Algerian side will not be able to absorb the radical change in the French position.
French political sources said that the French president wanted to achieve two goals: the first is to take advantage of the occasion of Morocco’s celebration of the ascension of King Mohammed VI to the throne “to offer him a diplomatic and political gift in a file that the latter had made a compass for his country’s foreign policy.” Macron went further than Spain when it largely adopted the Moroccan solution plan in 2022.

The second reason for the timing of Macron’s initiative is linked, according to the political sources, to the internal political situation in France, where the government has resigned, parliament is on vacation and the country is busy with the Olympics.
It is likely that Macron wanted to benefit from the current institutional “vacuum” before forming a new government, which may have a different approach to the Sahara issue, despite the fact that the French Constitution entrusts the President of the Republic with drawing up the country’s foreign and defense policy.
Press reports revealed that French diplomats began working on the new approach in the spring of 2023, and that many meetings were held between diplomatic officials from the two sides.
These reports also referred to the pressure exerted by Moroccan diplomacy on France, and one of the arguments, according to French “L’Opinion”, was to remind Paris that former President Jacques Chirac, who was a great friend of Morocco, was the one who called on Rabat, since 2003, to present its autonomy plan, in order to bypass a Sahrawi referendum that would decide on the fate of the Sahara.
L'Opinion pointed to another factor: the departure of Bernard Emie, the former ambassador to Algeria and director of French foreign intelligence, from the scene last spring. Emie was one of the strongest advocates for the establishment of a special relationship between Paris and Algeria, and his absence left the door open for those who continued to assert that Algeria did not respond to the initiatives of Macron, who during the past three years made major efforts to close the controversial files with Algiers.
Another French political source added that Paris saw today that Algeria’s ability to influence its immediate surroundings, especially in the Sahel region, has declined significantly after its dispute with two neighboring countries, Mali and Niger. On the other hand, Morocco’s return to the African Union could constitute a “platform” for joint French-Moroccan action at the political, economic, and investment levels.
Politics cannot be separated from economic, trade and investment interests. France has major interests in Morocco, which may have played some role in pushing the French authorities to change their approach, and causing a “heavy” crisis with Algeria.
In response to Algeria’s decision to immediately withdraw its ambassador to Paris, Said Makousi, a French diplomatic source said that France “took note of Algeria’s decision, which is a sovereign decision.”
He added: “We are determined to strengthen our bilateral relations with Algeria; we look to the future, and our great ambition is to work for the benefit of our two peoples.”