Baghdad Fears Iranian Retaliation, Cites Iraq as Key Missile Route

Image of a drone launch from a video posted by the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” on Telegram

Politicians and analysts believe Iraq is particularly worried about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel. This is because Iraqi airspace and territory might be the main route for Iranian missiles.
While many Iraqis seem indifferent to the possibility of a war, there is a heated debate online. Some critics of Iran are dismissive of the threat, while its supporters expect a strong retaliation.
A political source close to the Coordination Framework warns that Iraq, given its location near both Iran and Israel, could be heavily affected by a conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
The source, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat under conditions of anonymity, noted that Iraq’s ability to prevent or handle the fallout from such a conflict is nearly nonexistent.
If a war breaks out, Iraqi territory will be exposed, similar to the situation in April when Iranian missiles flew over Iraq to strike Israel.
The source explained that Iranian attacks could happen in two ways: through missiles crossing Iraqi airspace or via missiles launched by Iranian-aligned factions inside Iraq.
In both cases, it would be very difficult for the Iraqi government to respond, given its lack of control over these groups.
There are also concerns that these factions might launch broader attacks on their own, even without direct orders.
Additionally, if the conflict escalates uncontrollably, Israel might target important infrastructure in Iraq directly. This includes possible threats to Basra’s ports, similar to past Israeli actions in Yemen, if Iraqi factions join the conflict on Iran's side.
Former diplomat Ghazi Faisal agrees that the Iraqi government has limited ability to avoid the fallout from a potential conflict between Iran and Israel.
Faisal told Asharq Al-Awsat that Baghdad is trying to stay neutral amid the regional tensions and conflicts, including those involving Iran.
Despite efforts to address factions responsible for past attacks, Faisal said the Iraqi government cannot control or deter armed groups linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
While the Iraqi government aims to avoid war and supports Palestinian rights, Faisal warned that Iraq’s stance could become divided if a conflict breaks out, due to the complex ties between local factions and Tehran.