Lebanon Sees Deadliest Day of Conflict since 2006 as Israeli Strikes Kill 492

Smoke billows over southern Lebanon following Israeli strikes, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from the Israeli side of Israel Lebanon border September 23, 2024 / REUTERS
Smoke billows over southern Lebanon following Israeli strikes, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from the Israeli side of Israel Lebanon border September 23, 2024 / REUTERS
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Lebanon Sees Deadliest Day of Conflict since 2006 as Israeli Strikes Kill 492

Smoke billows over southern Lebanon following Israeli strikes, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from the Israeli side of Israel Lebanon border September 23, 2024 / REUTERS
Smoke billows over southern Lebanon following Israeli strikes, amid ongoing cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from the Israeli side of Israel Lebanon border September 23, 2024 / REUTERS

Israeli strikes Monday on Lebanon killed more than 490 people, including more than 90 women and children, Lebanese authorities said, in the deadliest barrage since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. The Israeli military warned residents in southern and eastern Lebanon to evacuate ahead of its widening air campaign against Hezbollah, The AP reported.

Thousands of Lebanese fled the south, and the main highway out of the southern port city of Sidon was jammed with cars heading toward Beirut in the biggest exodus since 2006.

Lebanon's health ministry said the strikes killed 492 people, including 35 children and 58 women, and wounded 1,645 people — a staggering one-day toll for a country still reeling from a deadly attack on communication devices last week.

In a recorded message, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Lebanese civilians to heed Israeli calls to evacuate, saying “take this warning seriously.”

Israel's military spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said the army will do “whatever is necessary” to push Hezbollah from Lebanon’s border with Israel.

Hagari claimed Monday’s widespread airstrikes had inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah. But he would not give a timeline for the ongoing operation and said Israel was prepared to launch a ground invasion of Lebanon if needed.

Earlier Monday evening, the Israeli military said it had carried out a targeted strike in Beirut. It did not give details. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported three missiles hit southern Beirut's Beir al-Abed neighborhood. Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV said six people were wounded.

Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said the earlier strikes hit hospitals, medical centers and ambulances. The government ordered schools and universities to close across most of the country and began preparing shelters for the displaced.

Some strikes hit residential areas in the south and the eastern Bekaa Valley. One hit a wooded area as far away as Byblos, more than 80 miles (130 kilometers) from the border north of Beirut.

Monday's death toll far surpassed that of Beirut’s devastating port explosion in 2020, when hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse detonated, killing at least 218 people and wounding more than 6,000.

The Lebanese Health Ministry asked hospitals in southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley to postpone non-urgent surgeries to treat people wounded by “Israel’s expanding aggression on Lebanon.”

On Monday, residents received text messages reading: “If you are in a building housing weapons for Hezbollah, move away from the village until further notice,” Lebanese media reported.

Lebanon's information minister, Ziad Makary, said his office in Beirut had received a recorded message telling people to leave the building.

“This comes in the framework of the psychological war implemented by the enemy,” Makary said, and urged people “not to give the matter more attention than it deserves.”

Communities on both sides of the border have largely emptied because of the near-daily exchanges of fire.



Hamas to Conceal Identity of Sinwar’s Successor, Five Candidates Considered

Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
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Hamas to Conceal Identity of Sinwar’s Successor, Five Candidates Considered

Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)

Hamas is set to keep the identity of its new political bureau chief secret after Israel assassinated Yehya Sinwar, the group’s Gaza leader, on Wednesday.

This follows the killing of former political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran less than three months ago.

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hamas leaders are discussing the decision to hide the new leader’s name due to growing security risks.

“The leadership is likely to keep the identity confidential for safety reasons,” one source said.

The move is aimed at giving the new chief more freedom to operate and avoiding Israeli assassination attempts, which have targeted many of Hamas’ leaders.

The secrecy is also expected to help maintain internal order and protect the group’s structure.

Hamas wants to keep Israel uncertain about who will make decisions if talks resume on a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange in Gaza.

Since Friday, after officially announcing Sinwar’s death, Hamas leaders have been discussing who will replace him and whether to reveal their identity.

Sinwar was appointed about three months ago to send a defiant message to Israel and to show Hamas’ commitment to its “Al-Aqsa Flood” campaign.

His selection also aimed to reduce pressure on the group’s external leadership, which faces Israeli threats, political pressure from mediators, and calls for host countries to expel Hamas leaders.

Potential Successors:

Darwish, the ‘Shadow Man’

Several candidates are being considered to replace Sinwar, who faced no competition for Hamas’ political leadership after Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran on July 31.

The focus is now on Mohammad Darwish (Abu Omar Hassan), head of Hamas’ Shura Council. He was relatively unknown until gaining attention after Haniyeh’s death.

Many believe he has a strong chance, having appeared in recent official meetings ahead of some long-standing leaders.

A Hamas source said Darwish, once seen as the “shadow man,” is now taking on a more prominent role, receiving visitors and leading key activities.

Darwish spent much of his life abroad and was closely tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, from which Hamas originally emerged. Hamas later revised its charter and distanced itself from the Brotherhood.

Khalil al-Hayya: Sinwar’s Deputy

Alongside Darwish, Khalil al-Hayya is seen as a key contender, believed to be Sinwar’s deputy. Al-Hayya became a leading figure in Gaza after Sinwar’s disappearance and assassination.

A veteran political leader in Gaza, al-Hayya became Sinwar’s deputy and a close ally. He now leads Hamas in Gaza and is in charge of ceasefire negotiations and a potential prisoner exchange.

Al-Hayya has represented the group on key occasions, including speeches marking the October 7 attack and mourning Sinwar, calling him “the leader of the Al-Aqsa Flood battle.”

He promised that Hamas would continue its fight for full Palestinian liberation and a state with Jerusalem as its capital.

Al-Hayya also stated that Israeli prisoners held by Hamas would not be released unless Israel halts its offensive on Gaza, withdraws, and frees Palestinian prisoners.

Known as a political hardliner, al-Hayya, like Sinwar, supports strong ties with Iran.

Khaled Meshaal: Closer to the Muslim Brotherhood than Iran

In addition to al-Hayya and Darwish, Khaled Meshaal, Mousa Abu Marzouk, and Mohammad Nazzal are also possible candidates to lead Hamas.

Meshaal led Hamas’ political bureau for about 21 years and now heads the group’s external branch.

After Haniyeh’s assassination, Meshaal reportedly declined the leadership role due to health reasons and the current situation. It is unclear if he will now step in after Sinwar's death.

Meshaal is widely known politically and is seen as more connected to the Muslim Brotherhood than to Iran.

Mohammad Nazzal: A Hardliner in Hamas

Mohammad Nazzal’s influence was evident in the recent elections.

Born and raised in Amman, Jordan, Nazzal is originally from the West Bank and studied in Kuwait. He joined Hamas at its founding and has been a member of the political bureau since 1996. Nazzal is regarded as one of the hardliners within the group.

Mousa Abu Marzouk: First Head of the Political Bureau

Mousa Abu Marzouk is another candidate for leadership. He co-founded Hamas in 1987 and was its first head of the political bureau.

He currently serves as the deputy head of Hamas’ external branch. Born in 1951 in the Rafah refugee camp, his family was displaced from a village near Ramla.

It is expected that the next Hamas leader will be chosen from among these candidates rather than from Gaza, especially given the communication breakdown with some leaders in the territory.

Hamas has a system for selecting successors for vacant positions.

Hiding the Identity of Hamas' Leader

Hamas began concealing the identity of its leader in 2004 after Israel assassinated founder Ahmed Yassin on March 22, followed by his successor, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, on April 17.

For a long time, Hamas did not disclose the name of its leader in Palestine to avoid Israeli targeting.

Sinwar was killed on October 17, a major setback for Hamas that came just three months after former political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran.

Sinwar’s death has prompted Hamas to start extensive consultations to shape its future approach to the ongoing conflict and ceasefire negotiations.

This shift returned decision-making power to the external leadership after Gaza had been the focus.

Future decisions are likely to involve broader discussions, especially with the absence of influential historical leaders. While not indicating a collective leadership model like Hezbollah's in Lebanon, it suggests a move towards more inclusive consultation.

Since its founding in 1987, Hamas has had four leaders of the political bureau: Abu Marzouk (1992-1996), Meshaal (1996-2017), Haniyeh (2017 until his assassination), and Sinwar. A fifth leader is expected to be chosen soon.