Hamas Likely to Name New Leader from Outside Gaza after Sinwar’s Death

Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)
Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)
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Hamas Likely to Name New Leader from Outside Gaza after Sinwar’s Death

Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)
Houthi supporters walk past paintings showing the two late leaders of Hamas Yahya Sinwar (R) and Ismail Haniyeh during a rally in solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian people, one day after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in Gaza, in Sanaa, Yemen, 18 October 2024. (EPA)

The Palestinian armed group Hamas will likely replace Yahya Sinwar with a new political leader based outside Gaza while his brother - Mohammad Sinwar - is expected to assume a bigger role directing the war against Israel in the territory, experts say.

Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack that ignited the devastating Gaza war, was killed by Israeli forces in a gunbattle on Wednesday -- the second time in less than three months that Hamas has lost its top leader.

Its previous chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated in Iran in July almost certainly by Israel.

When Sinwar replaced him, he fused together both the military and political leadership in Gaza, but that does not appear likely this time around.

After more than a year of ferocious Israeli attacks that have pounded Hamas, killed thousands of its fighters and eliminated senior figures both inside and out of Gaza, it is not clear how the group will emerge from this latest blow.

Sinwar's deputy Khalil Al-Hayya, who is viewed as a potential successor, struck a defiant note on Friday, saying Israeli hostages would not be returned until Israeli troops withdrew from Gaza and the war ended.

Hamas has a history of quickly and efficiently replacing its fallen leaders, with its top decision-making body, the Shura Council, tasked with naming a new head.

The Shura Council represents all Hamas members in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian diaspora, meaning the new leader should have the authority to enter ceasefire talks even if he is not in Gaza, where Hamas gunmen still hold dozens of Israelis hostage.

Besides Hayya, who is Hamas' chief negotiator, the other main leadership contenders are Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh's predecessor, and Mohammad Darwish, a little-known figure who chairs the Shura Council, according to analysts and a Hamas source.

Hamas will need to notify Qatar, which has played a major role in rounds of so far fruitless ceasefire talks, and other regional capitals ahead of its decision, the source said.

DIVIDING DUTIES

Ashraf Abouelhoul, an expert on Palestinian affairs, expected Sinwar's responsibilities to be split between two roles - one overseeing military affairs and another running the political office, responsible for international contacts and shaping policies.

"Iran is Hamas strongest ally, which supports the group with money and weapons, and their blessing is key to who becomes Sinwar's successor," said Abouelhoul, managing editor of the state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram in Egypt.

He expected Hamas to stick by core demands in future ceasefire talks, chiefly that Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza and stop the war. But it could show more flexibility on some conditions, such as the details of any deal swapping Israeli hostages for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared Sinwar's killing a milestone but that the war is not yet over, saying fighting would continue until the hostages are released.

With Sinwar dead, the Hamas leadership for Gaza has temporarily passed to his Qatar-based deputy, Hayya.

But the ongoing war and communication difficulties might impose limits on just how much day-to-day contact Hayya can have with men on the ground, leaving the armed wing - the Qassam Brigades - in the driving seat, experts say.

A Hamas source said Hayya was expected to encounter no problems exercising his role as "de facto Gaza leader". The source noted that Hayya had maintained good relations with the military wing and had been close to both Sinwar and Haniyeh.

Akram Attallah, a Palestinian political analyst, said he expected the armed wing to respect Hayya's authority - even from afar. He also expected Mohammad Sinwar to emerge as a more significant figure in the armed wing and in Hamas in general.

A veteran commander of the Qassam Brigades, Mohammad Sinwar has seldom appeared in public, has long been on Israel's most-wanted list and has survived several attempts on his life, Hamas sources said.

Hamas-led gunmen killed 1,200 people and abducted another 250 during the Oct. 7 attack, according to Israeli tallies. This prompted an Israeli offensive which, according to Palestinian authorities, has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, laid waste to Gaza, and driven nearly all its population from their homes.

Sinwar's appointment in August was seen as both a show of defiance and internal unity by Hamas.

His close ties to Iran were seen as a factor supporting his candidacy. Both Darwish and Hayya are also seen as close to Tehran, whose support will be vital for Hamas to recover after the war.

Meanwhile, the prospects of the prominent former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal have been clouded by a record of friction with Tehran after his support for the revolt in 2011 against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Attallah said Hayya's ties to Iran stood him in better stead than Meshaal. But if Iran softened its opposition to Meshaal, he may have a chance, he said.



Lebanon's Salam Calls for 'Full Israeli Withdrawal' while Visiting Border Areas

Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam checks a map surrounded by Lebanese army soldiers as he visits the sourthern village of Khiam near the border with Israel, on February 28, 2025. (Photo by Rabih DAHER / AFP)
Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam checks a map surrounded by Lebanese army soldiers as he visits the sourthern village of Khiam near the border with Israel, on February 28, 2025. (Photo by Rabih DAHER / AFP)
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Lebanon's Salam Calls for 'Full Israeli Withdrawal' while Visiting Border Areas

Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam checks a map surrounded by Lebanese army soldiers as he visits the sourthern village of Khiam near the border with Israel, on February 28, 2025. (Photo by Rabih DAHER / AFP)
Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam checks a map surrounded by Lebanese army soldiers as he visits the sourthern village of Khiam near the border with Israel, on February 28, 2025. (Photo by Rabih DAHER / AFP)

Lebanon’s new prime minister, Nawaf Salam, used a tour on Friday of areas near the border with Israel that suffered wide destruction during the 14-month Israel-Hezbollah war to call for an Israeli withdrawal and promised residents of border villages a safe return to their homes and reconstruction.
Salam's visit came two days after his government won a vote of confidence in parliament.
“This is the first real working day of the government. We salute the army and its martyrs,” Salam said in the southern port city of Tyre while meeting residents of the border village of Dheira. “We promise you a safe return to your homes as soon as possible.”
The government is committed to the reconstruction of destroyed homes, which “is not a promise but a personal commitment by myself and the government,” Salam added.
Israel withdrew its troops from much of the border area earlier this month, but left five outlooking posts inside Lebanon, in what Lebanese officials called a violation of the US-brokered ceasefire that came into effect on Nov. 27, ending the war.
Salam said his government is gathering Arab and international support in order “to force the enemy to withdraw from our occupied lands and the so-called five points.”
“There is no real and lasting stability without full Israeli withdrawal,” he said.
During his tour, Salam -- who also visited the southern cities of Marjayoun and Nabatiyeh — praised the UN peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL.
In mid-February, UNIFIL’s outgoing deputy commander was injured when Hezbollah-linked protesters attacked a convoy taking peacekeepers to the Beirut airport.
On Friday, three judicial officials told The Associated Press that 26 people have been charged in the attack on UNIFIL, including five who are in detention and the rest remain at large.
The officials said 26 have were charged late Thursday by the Military Court’s Government Commissioner Judge Fadi Akiki with terrorism, undermining state authority, robbery and forming a gang to carry out evil acts. The judicial officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said those charged could get up to life in prison.
The officials also said that a bag was stolen from UNIFIL’s convoy that had about $30,000 in cash and that the money is still missing.