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Hamas to Conceal Identity of Sinwar’s Successor, Five Candidates Considered

Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
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Hamas to Conceal Identity of Sinwar’s Successor, Five Candidates Considered

Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)
Yahya Sinwar in a file photo taken in Gaza on October 21, 2011 (AP)

Hamas is set to keep the identity of its new political bureau chief secret after Israel assassinated Yehya Sinwar, the group’s Gaza leader, on Wednesday.

This follows the killing of former political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran less than three months ago.

Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hamas leaders are discussing the decision to hide the new leader’s name due to growing security risks.

“The leadership is likely to keep the identity confidential for safety reasons,” one source said.

The move is aimed at giving the new chief more freedom to operate and avoiding Israeli assassination attempts, which have targeted many of Hamas’ leaders.

The secrecy is also expected to help maintain internal order and protect the group’s structure.

Hamas wants to keep Israel uncertain about who will make decisions if talks resume on a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange in Gaza.

Since Friday, after officially announcing Sinwar’s death, Hamas leaders have been discussing who will replace him and whether to reveal their identity.

Sinwar was appointed about three months ago to send a defiant message to Israel and to show Hamas’ commitment to its “Al-Aqsa Flood” campaign.

His selection also aimed to reduce pressure on the group’s external leadership, which faces Israeli threats, political pressure from mediators, and calls for host countries to expel Hamas leaders.

Potential Successors:

Darwish, the ‘Shadow Man’

Several candidates are being considered to replace Sinwar, who faced no competition for Hamas’ political leadership after Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran on July 31.

The focus is now on Mohammad Darwish (Abu Omar Hassan), head of Hamas’ Shura Council. He was relatively unknown until gaining attention after Haniyeh’s death.

Many believe he has a strong chance, having appeared in recent official meetings ahead of some long-standing leaders.

A Hamas source said Darwish, once seen as the “shadow man,” is now taking on a more prominent role, receiving visitors and leading key activities.

Darwish spent much of his life abroad and was closely tied to the Muslim Brotherhood, from which Hamas originally emerged. Hamas later revised its charter and distanced itself from the Brotherhood.

Khalil al-Hayya: Sinwar’s Deputy

Alongside Darwish, Khalil al-Hayya is seen as a key contender, believed to be Sinwar’s deputy. Al-Hayya became a leading figure in Gaza after Sinwar’s disappearance and assassination.

A veteran political leader in Gaza, al-Hayya became Sinwar’s deputy and a close ally. He now leads Hamas in Gaza and is in charge of ceasefire negotiations and a potential prisoner exchange.

Al-Hayya has represented the group on key occasions, including speeches marking the October 7 attack and mourning Sinwar, calling him “the leader of the Al-Aqsa Flood battle.”

He promised that Hamas would continue its fight for full Palestinian liberation and a state with Jerusalem as its capital.

Al-Hayya also stated that Israeli prisoners held by Hamas would not be released unless Israel halts its offensive on Gaza, withdraws, and frees Palestinian prisoners.

Known as a political hardliner, al-Hayya, like Sinwar, supports strong ties with Iran.

Khaled Meshaal: Closer to the Muslim Brotherhood than Iran

In addition to al-Hayya and Darwish, Khaled Meshaal, Mousa Abu Marzouk, and Mohammad Nazzal are also possible candidates to lead Hamas.

Meshaal led Hamas’ political bureau for about 21 years and now heads the group’s external branch.

After Haniyeh’s assassination, Meshaal reportedly declined the leadership role due to health reasons and the current situation. It is unclear if he will now step in after Sinwar's death.

Meshaal is widely known politically and is seen as more connected to the Muslim Brotherhood than to Iran.

Mohammad Nazzal: A Hardliner in Hamas

Mohammad Nazzal’s influence was evident in the recent elections.

Born and raised in Amman, Jordan, Nazzal is originally from the West Bank and studied in Kuwait. He joined Hamas at its founding and has been a member of the political bureau since 1996. Nazzal is regarded as one of the hardliners within the group.

Mousa Abu Marzouk: First Head of the Political Bureau

Mousa Abu Marzouk is another candidate for leadership. He co-founded Hamas in 1987 and was its first head of the political bureau.

He currently serves as the deputy head of Hamas’ external branch. Born in 1951 in the Rafah refugee camp, his family was displaced from a village near Ramla.

It is expected that the next Hamas leader will be chosen from among these candidates rather than from Gaza, especially given the communication breakdown with some leaders in the territory.

Hamas has a system for selecting successors for vacant positions.

Hiding the Identity of Hamas' Leader

Hamas began concealing the identity of its leader in 2004 after Israel assassinated founder Ahmed Yassin on March 22, followed by his successor, Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, on April 17.

For a long time, Hamas did not disclose the name of its leader in Palestine to avoid Israeli targeting.

Sinwar was killed on October 17, a major setback for Hamas that came just three months after former political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran.

Sinwar’s death has prompted Hamas to start extensive consultations to shape its future approach to the ongoing conflict and ceasefire negotiations.

This shift returned decision-making power to the external leadership after Gaza had been the focus.

Future decisions are likely to involve broader discussions, especially with the absence of influential historical leaders. While not indicating a collective leadership model like Hezbollah's in Lebanon, it suggests a move towards more inclusive consultation.

Since its founding in 1987, Hamas has had four leaders of the political bureau: Abu Marzouk (1992-1996), Meshaal (1996-2017), Haniyeh (2017 until his assassination), and Sinwar. A fifth leader is expected to be chosen soon.

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Israelis are Wary of Returning to the North Because they Don't Trust the Ceasefire with Hezbollah

A general view of the border line between Israel and Lebanon following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah, as seen from its Israeli side, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/ Shir Torem
A general view of the border line between Israel and Lebanon following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah, as seen from its Israeli side, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/ Shir Torem
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Israelis are Wary of Returning to the North Because they Don't Trust the Ceasefire with Hezbollah

A general view of the border line between Israel and Lebanon following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah, as seen from its Israeli side, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/ Shir Torem
A general view of the border line between Israel and Lebanon following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah, as seen from its Israeli side, November 28, 2024. REUTERS/ Shir Torem

Dean Sweetland casts his gaze over a forlorn street in the Israeli community of Kibbutz Malkiya. Perched on a hill overlooking the border with Lebanon, the town stands mostly empty after being abandoned a year ago.
The daycare is closed. The homes are unkempt. Parts of the landscape are ashen from fires sparked by fallen Hezbollah rockets. Even after a tenuous Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire designed to let Israelis return to the north, the mood here is far from celebratory.
“The ceasefire is rubbish,” said Sweetland, a gardener and member of the kibbutz’s civilian security squad. “Do you expect me to ring around my friends and say, ‘All the families should come home?’ No."
Across the border, Lebanese civilians have jammed roads in a rush to return to homes in the country's south, but most residents of northern Israel have met the ceasefire with suspicion and apprehension.
“Hezbollah could still come back to the border, and who will protect us when they do?” Sweetland asked.
Israel’s government seeks to bring the northern reaches of the country back to life, particularly the line of communities directly abutting Lebanon that have played a major role in staking out Israel’s border.
But the fear of Hezbollah, a lack of trust in United Nations peacekeeping forces charged with upholding the ceasefire, deep anger at the government and some Israelis' desire to keep rebuilding their lives elsewhere are keeping many from returning immediately.
When the truce took effect, about 45,000 Israelis had evacuated from the north. They fled their homes after Hezbollah began firing across the border on Oct. 8, 2023, in solidarity with its ally Hamas in Gaza. That triggered more than a year of cross-border exchanges, with Lebanese villages in the south and Israeli communities facing the border taking the brunt of the pain.
During the truce's initial 60-day phase, Hezbollah is supposed to remove its armed presence from a broad band of southern Lebanon where the military says the militant group had been digging in for years by gathering weapons and setting up rocket launch sites and other infrastructure. Under the ceasefire, a UN peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL and a beefed-up Lebanese army presence are supposed to ensure Hezbollah doesn’t return.
Many residents of northern Israel are skeptical that the peace will hold.
Sarah Gould, who evacuated Kibbutz Malkiya at the start of the war with her three kids, said Hezbollah fired on the community up to and just past the minute when the ceasefire took effect early Wednesday.
“So for the government to tell me that Hezbollah is neutralized," she said, "it’s a perfect lie.”
Residents fear for their safety in the far north in Gaza, where Israel is pushing forward with a war that has killed over 44,000 Palestinians, Israel’s goal is the eradication of Hamas. But in Lebanon, Israel’s aims were limited to pushing Hezbollah away from the border so northern residents could return home.
Israeli critics say the government should have kept fighting to outright cripple Hezbollah or to clear out the border area, which is home to hundreds of thousands of Lebanese.
“I won’t even begin to consider going home until I know there’s a dead zone for kilometers across the border,” the 46-year-old Gould said.
Some wary Israelis trickled back home Thursday and Friday to areas farther from the border. But communities like Kibbutz Manara, set on a tiny slice of land between Lebanon and Syria, remained ghost towns.
Orna Weinberg, 58, who was born and raised in Manara, said it was too early to tell whether the ceasefire would protect the community.
Perched above all the other border villages, Manara was uniquely vulnerable to Hezbollah fire throughout the war. Three-quarters of its structures were damaged.
In the kibbutz’s communal kitchen and dining hall, ceiling beams have collapsed. The uprooted floorboards are covered with ash from fires that also claimed much of the kibbutz’s cropland.
Rocket fragments abound. The torso of a mannequin, a decoy dressed in army green, lies on the ground.
Weinberg tried to stay in Manara during the war, but after anti-tank shrapnel damaged her home, soldiers told her to leave. On Thursday, she walked along her street, which looks out directly over a UNIFIL position separating the kibbutz from a line of Lebanese villages that have been decimated by Israeli bombardment and demolitions.
Weinberg said UNIFIL hadn’t prevented Hezbollah’s build-up in the past, “so why would they be able to now?”
“A ceasefire here just gives Hezbollah a chance to rebuild their power and come back to places that they were driven out of,” she said.
The truce seemed fragile.
Associated Press reporters heard sporadic bursts of gunfire, likely Israeli troops firing at Lebanese attempting to enter the towns. Israel’s military says it is temporarily preventing Lebanese civilians from returning home to a line of towns closest to the border, until the Lebanese military can deploy there in force.
Even in less battered communities, no one returns home. Though the atmosphere along the border was tense, Malkiya showed signs of peace. With Hezbollah’s rockets stopped, some residents returned briefly to the kibbutz to peer around cautiously.
At a vista overlooking the border, where the hulking wreckage of Lebanese villages could be made out, a group of around 30 soldiers gathered. Just days ago, they would have made easy targets for Hezbollah fire.
Malkiya has sustained less damage than Manara. Still, residents said they would not return immediately. During a year of displacement, many have restarted their lives elsewhere, and the idea of going back to a front-line town on the border is daunting.
In Lebanon, where Israeli bombardment and ground assaults drove some 1.2 million people from their homes, some of the displaced crowded into schools-turned-shelters or slept in the streets.
In Israel, the government paid for hotels for evacuees and helped accommodate children in new schools. Gould predicted residents would return to the kibbutz only when government subsidies for their lodging dried up — “not because they want to, but because they feel like they can’t afford an alternative.”
“It’s not just a security issue,” Gould said. “We’ve spent more than a year rebuilding our lives wherever we landed. It’s a question of having to gather that up and move back somewhere else, somewhere that’s technically our old house but not a home. Nothing feels the same.”
It’s unclear if schools in the border communities will have enough students to reopen, Gould said, and her children are already enrolled elsewhere. She’s enjoyed living farther from the border, away from an open war zone.
There’s also a deep feeling that the communities were abandoned by the government, Sweetland said.
Sweetland is one of roughly 25 civilian security volunteers who stayed throughout the war, braving continual rocket fire to keep the kibbutz afloat. They repaired damaged homes, put out blazes and helped replace the kibbutz generator when it was taken out by Hezbollah fire. They were on their own, with no firefighters or police willing to risk coming, he said.
“We didn’t have any help for months and months and months, and we pleaded, ‘Please help us.’”
Sweetland said he will keep watching over the hushed pathways of the once-vibrant community in hopes his neighbors will soon feel safe enough to return. But he predicted it would take months.
Weinberg hopes to move back to Manara as soon as possible. On Thursday, she spotted a former neighbor who was about to leave after checking the damage to her home.
Weinberg grasped her hand through the car window, asking how she was. The woman grimaced and began to cry. Their hands parted as the car slowly rolled out through the gates and drove away.