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Israel Pessimistic about Ceasefire Deal with Lebanon

Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)
Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)
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Israel Pessimistic about Ceasefire Deal with Lebanon

Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)
Damage caused by Israeli raids in Lebanon. (AP)

The United States' special envoy for the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, decided to extend his visit to Beirut until Wednesday, political sources in Tel Aviv said. The envoy, who was expected in Israel on Wednesday morning, will arrive there by Thursday at the latest.

Despite the positive signals from Washington about Hochstein’s visit to the Lebanese capital, Israelis cast doubt on the likelihood that a deal could be reached to end the war on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The sources said US officials are very serious about reaching a possible ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war. “Coordination is ongoing between the administration of President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, who are both determined to end the war,” the sources stressed.

As evidence, they said, Washington has decided to place a US general at the head of a military technical committee tasked to achieve the total deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon.

However, Israel is skeptical. It believes Hezbollah is maneuvering and will not accept the Israeli terms of the US proposal.

The sources said the Israeli army is indirectly taking part in the Hochstein-led negotiations by exerting pressure on Lebanon and intensifying its attacks on the capital, not just its southern suburbs where Hezbollah has a strong presence, as well as the South and eastern Bekaa region.

Former head of Israeli Defense Intelligence Professor Amos Yadlin, who held a meeting with Hochstein recently, revealed that the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon is making great progress.

He said a deal could be announced this weekend. “The most important thing is that the agreement between Israel and Washington on the US guarantees is ready. If an agreement is reached in Beirut on those guarantees, a ceasefire deal will be signed and put into effect,” Yadlin said.

Biden sent a message to Israel that the US administration will not only serve as a guarantor to Israel, but it has also given it legitimacy in its right to self-defense, he revealed.

“In Washington, they agree with us that Israel has cancelled its known MABAM doctrine (the ‘war between the wars’), and is now ready to wage a war whenever it is attacked. Hochstein and other mutual friends of Israel and Lebanon have made this clear, but this policy has to be understood in Lebanon, Syria and Iran,” he added.

Meanwhile, the majority of officials close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain pessimistic about reaching a ceasefire deal with Lebanon.

The right-wing newspaper Israel Hayom quoted an Israeli political source as saying that “an agreement is not likely to be reached in the near future.”

Instead, it said, the Israeli military has approved plans to attack the southern suburbs of Beirut, carry out assassinations wherever possible, even in the majority-Christian part of east Beirut and continue to target Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.

On Tuesday, Bezalel Smotrich, the far-right minister of finance, said, “We will not agree to any arrangement that is not worth the paper it is written on.”

Addressing the ceasefire efforts, Netanyahu told a Knesset meeting that “the important thing is not the piece of paper.”

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Israeli Officials Demand the Right to Strike Hezbollah under Any Ceasefire Deal for Lebanon

An Israeli fighter jet flies over the northern border with Lebanon on 20 November 2024. (EPA)
An Israeli fighter jet flies over the northern border with Lebanon on 20 November 2024. (EPA)
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Israeli Officials Demand the Right to Strike Hezbollah under Any Ceasefire Deal for Lebanon

An Israeli fighter jet flies over the northern border with Lebanon on 20 November 2024. (EPA)
An Israeli fighter jet flies over the northern border with Lebanon on 20 November 2024. (EPA)

Israeli officials demanded Wednesday the freedom to strike Lebanon's Hezbollah as part of any ceasefire deal, raising a potential complication as a top US envoy was in the region attempting to clinch an agreement.

The development came as an airstrike hit the historic Syrian town of Palmyra, killing 36 people, according to Syrian state-run media, which blamed the attack on Israel. The Israeli military declined to comment.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar each said Israel sought to reserve the right to respond to any violations by Hezbollah under an emerging proposal, which would push the group’s fighters and Israeli ground forces out of a UN buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

There have been signs of progress on the ceasefire deal, with Hezbollah’s allies in the Lebanese government saying the militant group had responded positively to the proposal.

“In any agreement we will reach, we will have to maintain our freedom to act if there will be violations,” Saar told dozens of foreign ambassadors in Jerusalem. “We will have to be able to act in time, before the problem will grow.”

Katz, in a meeting with intelligence corps officers, said “the condition for any political settlement in Lebanon” was the right for the Israeli military “to act and protect the citizens of Israel from Hezbollah.”

Amos Hochstein, the Biden administration’s point man on Israel and Lebanon, has been working in recent days to push the sides toward agreement. He has been meeting this week with officials in Lebanon and said Wednesday he would travel to Israel in an attempt to “try to bring this to a close if we can.”

On Tuesday, Hochstein said an agreement to end the Israel-Hezbollah war is “within our grasp.”

The emerging ceasefire deal would push Hezbollah and Israel out of southern Lebanon Hezbollah began firing into Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, in solidarity with Hamas after its attack on southern Israel that sparked the war in the Gaza Strip. Israel has been responding with strikes in Lebanon, and dramatically escalated its bombardment in late September by launching a ground invasion just inside the border.

In the more than a year of exchanges, more than 3,500 people have been killed in Lebanon, most in the past month, the Health Ministry reported, and over 1 million people have been displaced. It's unknown how many of the dead were Hezbollah fighters.

In Israel, more than 70 people have been killed by Hezbollah fire, and tens of thousands have fled their homes.

Hochstein’s proposal is based on UN resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel. The resolution stipulates that only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers should operate in southern Lebanon.

Still, after 2006, Hezbollah never fully ended its presence in the south. Lebanon accuses Israel of also violating the resolution by maintaining hold of a small, disputed border area and conducting frequent military flights over Lebanon.

Israel says that since then, Hezbollah built up a military infrastructure throughout villages and towns in southern Lebanon.

The proposal currently being discussed would include an implementation plan and a monitoring system to ensure each side follows its obligations to fully withdraw from the south. That could involve the US and France, but details are still unclear.

There’s been progress, but the deal isn’t done yet The Israeli ministers did not outline what Israel’s demand to maintain freedom of operation would entail. Since the 2006 war, Israel has struck Hezbollah on the few occasions when border violence did flare up, but any larger scale response could push the region back into turmoil.

It is also unlikely that Lebanon would agree to a deal that permits Israeli violations of its sovereignty.

And although the proposal attempts to nail down an implementation mechanism, the failure to fully implement the UN resolution after the 2006 war could point to the difficulties in getting the sides to uphold a sustainable ceasefire that would bring long-term quiet.

Israel has continued to pound Hezbollah throughout the ceasefire attempts, and rockets have continued to rain down on northern Israel. Any perceived escalation could derail the talks.

Even if a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is reached, the war in Gaza grinds on into its 14th month.

Israel is still battling Hamas there, sending the death toll soaring to nearly 44,000 dead — over half of them women and children, according to local health officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants in their count.

While Hezbollah throughout the war in Gaza said it wouldn’t stop firing at Israel until the fighting in the Palestinian territory ends, that condition was dropped in September after Israel intensified its offensive on the group, killing its top leadership and degrading its military capabilities.

That leaves Gaza waiting for a ceasefire of its own, as people there continue to endure a humanitarian crisis that has displaced much of the territory’s 2.3 million people and prompted widespread hunger, especially in the north, where the UN says virtually no food or humanitarian aid has been delivered to for more than 40 days because of the Israeli military’s siege there.