Biden, Macron to Declare 60-Day Ceasefire between Hezbollah, Israel on Tuesday

 Smoke and flame rise after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. (AP)
Smoke and flame rise after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. (AP)
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Biden, Macron to Declare 60-Day Ceasefire between Hezbollah, Israel on Tuesday

 Smoke and flame rise after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. (AP)
Smoke and flame rise after an Israeli airstrike on Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. (AP)

US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron will declare on Tuesday morning a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Asharq Al-Awsat learned from widely informed sources on Monday.

Washington has spoken of “cautious optimism” that the US proposal for a ceasefire could be a success. The proposal calls for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the area between the Blue Line and Litani River in a manner that can be verified. In return Israeli forces will withdraw from the regions they occupied since they carried out their limited invasion of Lebanon.

The discussions the US government had on the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire were positive and are headed in the right direction towards a deal, the White House said on Monday.

"We're close," said White House national security spokesperson John Kirby. "The discussions ... were constructive, and we believe that the trajectory of this is going in a very positive direction. But, yeah, nothing is done until everything is done." 

The relative positivity prevailed in spite of the ongoing wide-scale military operations between Israel and Hezbollah in the South and Israel’s air raids deep in Lebanese territory. Hezbollah has also fired rockets deep in Israel, reaching Tel Aviv.

Analysts have said the intense attacks suggest that both Israel and Hezbollah are trying to maximize their leverage as diplomats conduct what they hope is a final round of ceasefire talks, reported the New York Times on Monday.

The New York Times reported on Friday that the terms included a 60-day truce during which Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters pull back from border areas and the Lebanese Army and a United Nations peacekeeping force increase their presence in a buffer zone.

But officials have also warned that the two sides may not be able to finalize a deal, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced pressure from right-wing allies not to end the military campaign.

Israel’s hard-line national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, said in a social media post on Monday that the proposed deal would be a “historic missed opportunity to eradicate Hezbollah.”

Observers meanwhile told Asharq Al-Awsat that all pending issues related to the US proposal have been resolved from the Lebanese side, while Israel has some lingering reservations.

Israeli officials said Netanyahu’s security Cabinet is set to convene on Tuesday to discuss the ceasefire proposal.

Two officials confirmed the Cabinet meeting is set for Tuesday, but they said it is still not clear whether the decision-making body will vote to approve the deal.

The officials spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they were discussing internal deliberations.



Israel Poised to Approve Ceasefire with Hezbollah, Israeli Official Says

 A photo shows destruction at the site of an overnight Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on November 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)
A photo shows destruction at the site of an overnight Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on November 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)
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Israel Poised to Approve Ceasefire with Hezbollah, Israeli Official Says

 A photo shows destruction at the site of an overnight Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on November 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)
A photo shows destruction at the site of an overnight Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on November 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)

Israel looks set to approve a US plan for a ceasefire with Lebanon's Hezbollah on Tuesday, a senior Israeli official said, clearing the way for an end to the conflict that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war 14 months ago.

That optimism was shared by Lebanese caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib who expressed hope at a G7 meeting in Italy that a ceasefire would be reached by Tuesday night.

Israel's security cabinet is expected to convene later on Tuesday to discuss and likely approve the text at a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the official said.

This would pave the way for a ceasefire declaration by US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, four senior Lebanese sources told Reuters on Monday.

In Washington, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on Monday, "We're close" but "nothing is done until everything is done". The French presidency said discussions on a ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah had made significant progress.

The agreement requires Israeli troops to withdraw from south Lebanon and Lebanon's army to deploy in the region - a Hezbollah stronghold - within 60 days, officials say. Hezbollah would end its armed presence along the border south of the Litani River.

Israel demands effective UN enforcement of an eventual ceasefire with Lebanon and will show "zero tolerance" toward any infraction, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday.

The agreement with Lebanon will maintain Israel's freedom of operation there to act in defense to remove threats posed by Hezbollah and enable displaced residents to return safely to their homes in northern Israel, Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer told Reuters.

The proposal has already won approval in Beirut, where Lebanon's deputy parliament speaker Elias Bou Saab told Reuters on Monday there were no serious obstacles left to start implementing it - unless Netanyahu changed his mind.

Signs of a diplomatic breakthrough have been accompanied by a military escalation. Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday demolished more of Beirut's Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, while the armed group has kept up rocket fire into Israel.

The widespread destruction left by Israeli airstrikes has brought into focus a huge reconstruction bill awaiting cash-strapped Lebanon, with more than 1 million people displaced and many left homeless heading into winter.

In Israel, a ceasefire will pave the way for 60,000 people to return to homes in the north, which they evacuated as Hezbollah began firing rockets in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas a day after that group's Oct. 7, 2023 assault.

'THE MISSILES ARE CHASING US'

Israel has dealt Hezbollah massive blows since going on the offensive against the group in September, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders, and pounding areas of Lebanon where the group holds sway.

"Regarding the ceasefire, I think it will be implemented. Both sides are tired - both sides are tired," said Selim Ayoub, a 37-year-old mechanic from Beirut's southern suburbs.

Hezbollah launched some 250 rockets on Sunday in one of its heaviest barrages yet. The northern Israeli city of Nahariya came under more rocket fire overnight.

"As we were about to sleep, we suddenly heard a huge explosion, the window in our fortified room was shaking," said Ofir Ben David, who was evacuated earlier in the conflict from the Israeli community of Shomera on the Lebanese border.

"The missiles are chasing us all the time."

Diplomacy to end the fighting has focused on restoring a ceasefire based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the last major war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.

Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said on Monday that Israel would maintain an ability to strike southern Lebanon under any agreement.

Lebanon has previously objected to Israel being granted such a right, and Lebanese officials have said such language is not included in the draft proposal.

Two Israeli officials told Reuters that Israel has a side agreement with the US allowing it to take action in Lebanon against "imminent threats."

Senior Hezbollah official Mohammad Raad, writing in a Lebanese newspaper on Tuesday, said it was unlikely Israel would "accept any talk about halting its aggression against Lebanon without pressure or without exhausting the option of using force on the ground".

"However, we will wait and see the results of the indirect negotiations," he wrote.

Hezbollah, seen as a terrorist group by Washington, has endorsed its ally Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to negotiate.

DEATH TOLL

Over the past year, more than 3,750 people have been killed in Lebanon and over one million have been forced from their homes, according to Lebanon's health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures.

Hezbollah strikes have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. At least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in northern Israel, the Golan Heights and in combat in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli authorities.

Biden's administration, which leaves office in January, has emphasized diplomacy to end the Lebanon conflict, even as all negotiations to halt the parallel war in Gaza are frozen.