Deadly Israeli Strike in Lebanon Further Shakes Tenuous Ceasefire

People spend time on a beach during sunset, after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, in Tyre, southern Lebanon December 3, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
People spend time on a beach during sunset, after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, in Tyre, southern Lebanon December 3, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
TT

Deadly Israeli Strike in Lebanon Further Shakes Tenuous Ceasefire

People spend time on a beach during sunset, after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, in Tyre, southern Lebanon December 3, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
People spend time on a beach during sunset, after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, in Tyre, southern Lebanon December 3, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

Israeli forces carried out several new drone and artillery strikes in Lebanon on Tuesday, including a deadly strike that the Health Ministry and state media said killed one person, further shaking a tenuous ceasefire meant to end more than a year of fighting with Hezbollah.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed keep striking “with an iron fist” against perceived Hezbollah violations of the truce. His defense minister warned that if the ceasefire collapses, Israel will target not just Hezbollah but the Lebanese state — an expansion of Israel’s campaign.
Israel also carried out an airstrike in Syria, saying it killed a senior member of Hezbollah responsible for coordinating with Syria’s army on rearming and resupplying the Lebanese militant group. Israel has repeatedly hit Hezbollah targets in Syria, but Tuesday's attack was a rare public acknowledgement. Syrian state media reported that an Israeli drone strike hit a car in a suburb of the capital Damascus, killing one person.

Since the two-month ceasefire in Lebanon began last Wednesday, the US- and French-brokered deal has been rattled by near daily Israeli attacks, although Israel has been vague about the purported Hezbollah violations that prompted them.
On Monday, it was shaken by its biggest test yet. Hezbollah fired two projectiles toward an Israeli-held disputed border zone, its first volley since the ceasefire began, saying it was a “warning” in response to Israel’s strikes. Israel responded with its heaviest barrage of the past week, killing 10 people.
On Tuesday, drone strikes hit four places in southern Lebanon, one of them killing a person in the town of Shebaa, the state-run National News Agency said. The Health Ministry confirmed the death, The Associated Press reported.

Asked about the strike, the Israeli military said its aircraft struck a Hezbollah militant who posed a threat to troops. Shebaa is situated within a region of border villages where the Israeli military has warned Lebanese civilians not to return, with Israeli troops still present.
Israeli forces fired an artillery shell at one location and opened fire with small arms toward a town, the news agency reported.
With Tuesday’s death, Israeli strikes since the ceasefire began have killed at least 15 people.

Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hezbollah is supposed to withdraw its fighters, weapons and infrastructure from a broad swath of the south by the end of the initial 60-day phase, pulling them north of the Litani River. Israeli troops are also to pull back to their side of the border.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
TT

Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”