Rare Moment of Doubt Between Iran, Iraqi Allies

Members of the “Nujaba Movement” during a military parade in Baghdad (X)
Members of the “Nujaba Movement” during a military parade in Baghdad (X)
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Rare Moment of Doubt Between Iran, Iraqi Allies

Members of the “Nujaba Movement” during a military parade in Baghdad (X)
Members of the “Nujaba Movement” during a military parade in Baghdad (X)

As Syrian armed factions expand, Iraqi Shiite groups are steering clear of the fighting, increasing pressure on Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani’s government from both Iran and the US over Baghdad’s stance on Syria.

Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh arrived in Baghdad on Thursday, with Iran’s Abbas Araghchi expected on Friday.

Sources say Araghchi will seek Iraq’s help to restrain Syrian factions or protect key areas for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Tehran. However, it is unclear if Baghdad will comply.

Talks between Iraqi officials and Shiite factions suggest growing doubts about Iran’s ability to maintain its influence.

Sources said Syria has asked Baghdad for military aid, with some Iraqi politicians pushing to send troops. However, government officials indicated that Iraq’s role will depend on emerging regional developments.

Shiite factions have distanced themselves from the Syrian conflict, citing a lack of confidence in Iran’s ability to secure supply lines.

Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia, recently announced it was monitoring the situation but stopped short of joining the fight. Instead, it urged Al-Sudani to send troops to support Assad in Syria.

Insiders said Shiite factions and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard agreed that deploying fighters to Syria would be a “suicidal move.” They believe the responsibility now lies with the Iraqi government.

Despite Iran’s orders for Shiite militias to head to Damascus, the factions refused, signaling a rare defiance of Tehran’s directives.

The refusal of Iraqi Shiite factions to follow Iran’s orders has raised doubts, with Sunni and Kurdish politicians questioning the shift.

They find it hard to explain, given the close loyalty between Tehran and its Iraqi allies. However, key events in Gaza and Lebanon seem to have triggered this change, and its long-term impact remains uncertain.

An Iraqi political adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said various factors have led Iraqi factions to adopt a different approach from Iran. “It’s not a full break, but it’s an unusual shift in tactics,” he explained.

Groups like Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which are part of the Iraqi government, have been inactive for months. Other factions, once active in attacks against US and Israeli targets, are now questioning Iran’s support, especially after Hezbollah’s recent troubles.

Asharq Al-Awsat has gathered conflicting reports from sources close to Shiite factions, political figures, and those in communication with Tehran and Baghdad. The situation surrounding the factions’ stance on Syria can be summarized as follows:

“Iraqi Shiite factions are increasingly concerned about external interference impacting their leaders, supply lines, and camps, leading them to believe that intervening in Syria would be too risky.”

“Shiite faction leaders are questioning the effectiveness of Iran’s strategy since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, wondering if it has weakened the resistance axis instead of strengthening it.”

“Iran is struggling to communicate with Iraqi factions since the killing of Hezbollah’s leader. Factions claim they have heard nothing from Iran’s Quds Force commander, Ismail Qaani, since the fighting began in Syria.”

Discussions among factions have raised concerns about how Iran would protect supply lines for fighters going to Syria.

If the reports are correct, the factions’ refusal to intervene in Syria follows failed attempts to test the situation on the ground.

On December 2, 2024, armed Shiite groups tried to cross the Iraqi-Syrian border toward Al-Bukamal but were struck by airstrikes near Mayadeen, southeast of Deir Ezzor.

US sources warned of this area being one of the last accessible points in Syria.

On December 4, 2024, a Shiite group attempted to encircle Syrian Democratic Forces near Khafsa, northeast of Aleppo, but the operation failed.



Lebanon’s Jumblatt Visits Syria, Hoping for a Post-Assad Reset in Troubled Relations

Walid Jumblatt (C), the Druze former leader of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), and his son and current party head Taymur Jumblatt (C-L) meet with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) and interim prime minister Mohammad al-Bashir (L) during a visit to Damascus on December 22, 2024. (AFP)
Walid Jumblatt (C), the Druze former leader of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), and his son and current party head Taymur Jumblatt (C-L) meet with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) and interim prime minister Mohammad al-Bashir (L) during a visit to Damascus on December 22, 2024. (AFP)
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Lebanon’s Jumblatt Visits Syria, Hoping for a Post-Assad Reset in Troubled Relations

Walid Jumblatt (C), the Druze former leader of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), and his son and current party head Taymur Jumblatt (C-L) meet with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) and interim prime minister Mohammad al-Bashir (L) during a visit to Damascus on December 22, 2024. (AFP)
Walid Jumblatt (C), the Druze former leader of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), and his son and current party head Taymur Jumblatt (C-L) meet with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (R) and interim prime minister Mohammad al-Bashir (L) during a visit to Damascus on December 22, 2024. (AFP)

Former head of Lebanon’s Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Druze leader Walid Jumblatt held talks on Sunday with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose group led the overthrow of Syria's President Bashar Assad, with both expressing hope for a new era in relations between their countries.

Jumblatt was a longtime critic of Syria's involvement in Lebanon and blamed Assad's father, former President Hafez Assad, for the assassination of his own father decades ago. He is the most prominent Lebanese politician to visit Syria since the Assad family's 54-year rule came to an end.

“We salute the Syrian people for their great victories and we salute you for your battle that you waged to get rid of oppression and tyranny that lasted over 50 years,” said Jumblatt.

He expressed hope that Lebanese-Syrian relations “will return to normal.”

Jumblatt's father, Kamal, was killed in 1977 in an ambush near a Syrian roadblock during Syria's military intervention in Lebanon's civil war. The younger Jumblatt was a critic of the Assads, though he briefly allied with them at one point to gain influence in Lebanon's ever-shifting political alignments.

“Syria was a source of concern and disturbance, and its interference in Lebanese affairs was negative,” al-Sharaa said, referring to the Assad government. “Syria will no longer be a case of negative interference in Lebanon," he said, pledging that it would respect Lebanese sovereignty.

Al-Sharaa also repeated longstanding allegations that Assad's government was behind the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which was followed by other killings of prominent Lebanese critics of Assad.

Last year, the United Nations closed an international tribunal investigating the assassination after it convicted three members of Lebanon's Hezbollah — an ally of Assad — in absentia. Hezbollah denied involvement in the massive Feb. 14, 2005 bombing, which killed Hariri and 21 others.

“We hope that all those who committed crimes against the Lebanese will be held accountable, and that fair trials will be held for those who committed crimes against the Syrian people,” Jumblatt said.