Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had no choice but to act fast. Russia urgently advised him to launch a political initiative to open dialogue with the opposition and prevent the start of Operation “Deterring Aggression.”
After the attack began, Moscow had accurate details on its timing, size, and targets. By then, it was too late.
Moscow quickly decided to arrange a safe exit to avoid a destructive sectarian war, which would have had catastrophic consequences, said Rami Shaar, a close advisor to Russian officials.
Shaar told Asharq Al-Awsat that Russia’s intelligence on the planned large-scale attack led to urgent action 48 hours before it began. Using “specialized channels,” Russian officials warned Syria that “armed factions would advance towards Aleppo and other cities.”
He added that urgent talks with Türkiye and Iran aimed to stop the attack and push for political dialogue. However, it soon became clear that the factions were determined to proceed.
Shaar explained that Moscow’s decision was difficult because intelligence showed that the attack wasn’t just backed by the factions, but also by broad popular support.
According to the reports, “If the attack advances widely, around 80% of Syrians will strongly support it.”
Shaar told Asharq Al-Awsat that, in a bid to avoid major consequences, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran discussed ways to prevent a destructive conflict. Moscow’s intelligence also showed widespread discontent in the Syrian army, worsened by poor living conditions for soldiers and officers.
The close advisor to Russian officials explained that these factors led Russia to prioritize stopping a collapse that could trigger a civil war.
Russia made a direct call to Assad, warning that “all signs point to a major disaster, and a political initiative for dialogue must be launched quickly.”
However, according to Shaar, “Assad did not respond as urgently as needed.”
Shaar added that by then, opposition forces had already moved toward Aleppo, gaining significant local support, while the army had to gradually withdraw, allowing the opposition to take control of the city.
