Israel has raised the alert level of its military along the border with Lebanon, raising questions that Lebanon’s south may again be involved in a regional confrontation should the US attack Iran.
Given the heightened tensions between the US and Iran, questions have been asked over whether Hezbollah will become involved in a new war. Its Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem had recently announced that the party will not remain on the side if Iran is attacked.
On the ground, Israel blew up houses in southern Lebanon border towns and carried out air strikes in the south. Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee said the raids targeted “Hezbollah infrastructure,” including arms caches and rocket launchers.
Their presence in the south is a violation of current agreements, he added.
Amid the high regional tensions, Israel’s Maariv quoted a military source as saying that the army has come up with plans, including a preemptive strike against Hezbollah, which would drag the south and the whole of Lebanon into a new war.
Ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the presidency has been carrying out internal and foreign contacts since Thursday morning to keep Lebanon out of any escalation.
Hezbollah had launched a “support front” war against Israel a day after Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack. In 2024, the war spiraled into an all-out conflict, with Israel decimating the Hezbollah leadership and severely weakening the party.
Israel believes that Hezbollah has been rebuilding its capabilities since the ceasefire that was struck in November 2024.
Kassim Kassir, a political analyst who is close to Hezbollah, told Asharq Al-Awsat: “No one knows what Hezbollah will do because the situation is tied the extent of the attack, should it happen.”
He noted that Qassem was ambiguous when he said the party will decide what to do when the time is right, but at any rate, he stressed that the party will not remain on the sidelines or abandon Iran.
“No one knows what Hezbollah’s abilities are, so everything is possible,” Kassir said.
Riad Kahwaji, a security and defense affairs expert, said he does not rule out the possibility that Hezbollah would join the war should the US attack Iran.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, he stressed that Iran is now the United States’ main target, when previously it used to confront its proxies.
It has now taken the fight directly to the heart of the problem, which is the Iranian regime, he remarked.
The extent of the military mobilization in the region and the frequent American statements about regime change all indicate that a major military operation may be imminent, he added.
Israel’s military also favors preemptive operations, so it is watching Hezbollah, which remains Iran’s most powerful regional proxy despite the blows it received in 2024 war, Kahwaji said.
Hezbollah still possesses a rocket arsenal that can threaten Israel, he remarked.
Israel’s high level of alert on the border with Lebanon could be in readiness for any development. Should Tel Aviv receive word from Washington that it intends to attack Iran, then it could launch operations against Hezbollah as part of preemptive strikes aimed at preventing the party from launching attacks against it, Kahwaji said.
“As long as Hezbollah possesses heavy weapons, such as rockets, and drones, that it has not handed over to the army, then Lebanon will continue to be vulnerable to attacks in the next confrontation. It will be exposed to Israeli strikes as long as this issue remains unresolved,” he added.
