Lebanese political powers have so far failed to reach an agreement over a presidential candidate ahead of Thursday's much-anticipated election, casting doubt that a new head of state will be elected after more than two years of vacancy in the country's top post and in spite of intense local and international efforts to end the impasse.
US special envoy Amos Hochstein was in Lebanon this week for talks with major officials, including parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, army commander Joseph Aoun and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.
France's special envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, arrived in Beirut on Tuesday to help mediate the parliament's latest attempt to elect the country's president. He is set to attend the election on Thursday.
His visit comes as part of ongoing efforts to “enable the Lebanese to elect a president, in accordance with the principles agreed upon in Doha in July 2023,” according to a statement from his office. He is working alongside members of the Quintet - France, the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt - to push for a resolution to the prolonged stalemate.
Le Drian urged lawmakers to reach a consensus, emphasizing that electing a president is “the first step toward the urgent reactivation of Lebanon's institutions and the restoration of the country's sovereignty,” according to the statement.
Lebanon has been without a head of state since President Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022. Bickering between the political parties has impeded an agreement over a successor even though the country is reeling from several crises, including the fallout from Israel's war on Hezbollah and consolidating the ensuing fragile ceasefire.
The main obstacle in the election is the Shiite duo of Hezbollah and Berri's Amal movement's rejection of Aoun's candidacy. They remain committed to the election of their candidate Marada Movement leader and former MP Suleiman Franjieh.
Berri insisted on this position during his meeting with Hochstein. He spoke to the envoy of “a series of obstacles” preventing Aoun's election.
A constitutional amendment is needed for Aoun to run for president, but there aren't enough votes from parliament to approve the amendment. Moreover, the amendment needs a draft law from the government, which does not have the jurisdiction to do so because it is working in a caretaker capacity.
Sources close to Berri told Asharq Al-Awsat that the speaker is keen on ensuring the success of the election even if it means having to hold a vote on Friday or Saturday.
He insisted however, that Aoun cannot be elected president due to the constitutional obstacles, adding that other candidates, who enjoy the suitable traits of a head of state, can be elected instead.
Sovereign choice
Hezbollah MP Hussein al-Hajj Hassan stressed that Franjieh remains the party's chosen candidate.
He told Sputnik that the election is a “national sovereign” affair. The MPs who will elect a president represent the Lebanese people.
He added that he respects the “views of friends and partners who want to help Lebanon,” but the choice remains “internal and sovereign.”
The Hezbollah bloc will vote according to its convictions, he stressed, while dismissing accusations that the party and Amal were obstructing the polls.
“There is no need for accusations. Why would this be called a 'vote' if one position is being imposed on another?” the MP asked.
Everyone must hold dialogue over a suitable candidate if none of the nominees receive the needed votes to secure victory, Hajj Hassan added.
Geagea slams 'resistance bloc'
Meanwhile, Geagea slammed the Shiite duo for impeding the election. In a statement, he said that everyone “has known for months, even years, that the 'resistance' bloc does not approve in any way, shape, or form of the election of Aoun as president.”
“This is very evident in all media leaks or at closed-door meetings between various political forces or in statements made by international envoys,” he added.
“The Lebanese Forces is on good terms with Aoun and it was the first to deem him a suitable candidate when his name was proposed. It had never vetoed his nomination,” he stressed.
The “lying resistance bloc” - Hezbollah and Amal – and the Free Patriotic Movement oppose Aoun's election, and they have enough votes in parliament to ensure that he won't win, he noted.
United opposition
LF MP George Okais met with opposition and change MPs, saying afterwards: “We are united in the aim to elect a president on Thursday.”
“We hope the new president will be up to the task of running Lebanon” given all the challenges it is facing, he added.
He reiterated Geagea's assertion that the “resistance bloc” opposes Aoun's election.
Only 86 MPs out of the 128-member legislature are needed to hold the elections. A candidate needs 65 votes to win the first round of the election. He needs an absolute majority in the second round to be declared winner.
As it stands, none of the political blocs have the needed votes to ensure a candidate can be elected, which is why they are turning to understandings over a nominee.
Grand Mufti Sheikh Abul Latif al-Derian called on Tuesday for lawmakers to “carry out their constitutional duty to elect a president on January 9.”
He urged them to reach an agreement over a candidate “who can save Lebanon and prevent it from sliding deeper into chaos.”
He also warned of attempts to hinder the election, “which would give the Zionist enemy the opportunity to exploit political differences to undermine the Lebanese people's unity and solidarity.”
“The election of a president would fortify Lebanon and avert strife, which the country's enemies will benefit from,” he cautioned.
