Red Cross Urges Unhindered Aid Access to Flood-hit and Freezing Gaza

Paramedics from the Palestine Red Crescent Society protest over the deaths of their colleagues in the war between Israel and Hamas on February 11, 2024. Hazem Bader/AFP/Getty Images
Paramedics from the Palestine Red Crescent Society protest over the deaths of their colleagues in the war between Israel and Hamas on February 11, 2024. Hazem Bader/AFP/Getty Images
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Red Cross Urges Unhindered Aid Access to Flood-hit and Freezing Gaza

Paramedics from the Palestine Red Crescent Society protest over the deaths of their colleagues in the war between Israel and Hamas on February 11, 2024. Hazem Bader/AFP/Getty Images
Paramedics from the Palestine Red Crescent Society protest over the deaths of their colleagues in the war between Israel and Hamas on February 11, 2024. Hazem Bader/AFP/Getty Images

The Red Cross called Wednesday for safe and unhindered access to Gaza to bring desperately needed aid into the war-torn Palestinian territory wracked by hunger and where babies are freezing to death.

Heavy rain and flooding have ravaged the makeshift shelters in Gaza, leaving thousands with up to 30 centimetres (one foot) of water inside their damaged tents, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said.

The dire weather conditions were "exacerbating the unbearable conditions" in Gaza, it said, pointing out that many families were left "clinging on to survival in makeshift camps, without even the most basic necessities, such as blankets".

Citing the United Nations, the IFRC highlighted the deaths of eight newborn babies who had been living in tents without warmth or protection from the rain and falling temperatures, AFP reported.

Those deaths "underscore the critical severity of the humanitarian crisis there", IFRC Secretary-General Jagan Chapagain said in a statement.

"I urgently reiterate my call to grant safe and unhindered access to humanitarians to let them provide life-saving assistance," he said.

"Without safe access -- children will freeze to death. Without safe access -- families will starve. Without safe access -- humanitarian workers can't save lives."

According to a UN count, more than 330 humanitarian workers have been killed in Gaza since Israel unleashed its war there.

Chapagain issued an "urgent plea to all the parties... to put an end to this human suffering. Now".

The IFRC said the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) was striving to provide emergency health services and supplies to people in Gaza, with an extra sense of urgency during the cold winter months.

But it warned that "the lack of aid deliveries and access is making providing adequate support all but impossible".

The IFRC stressed that the closure of the main Rafah border crossing last May had had a dramatic impact on the humanitarian situation.

"Only a trickle of aid is currently entering Gaza," it warned.

It also lamented the "continuing attacks on health facilities across the Gaza Strip", which it said meant people were unable to access the treatment they need.

"In the north of Gaza, there are now no functioning hospitals," it said.

The Doctors Without Borders (MSF) charity warned that access to healthcare had also become "seriously compromised" in parts of the West Bank. It was seeing "a dramatic decline in children's mental health", it added.

It pointed in a statement to the drastic increase in restrictions imposed by Israeli forces since the start of the war in Gaza. In particular, it highlighted the situation in the Jaber neighbourhood inside the H2 area of Hebron City, which is under full Israeli military control.

MSF, which said it had been forced to suspend its operations for five months from December 2023, urged Israeli forces to "stop implementing restrictive measures that impede the ability of Palestinians to access basic services, including medical care".

MSF project coordinator Chloe Janssen warned that "although we are now able to provide care in the MSF clinic in Jaber neighbourhood, access remains challenging as our staff can be searched and delayed at the checkpoints to enter the H2 area.

"Access to medical care should never be arbitrarily denied, impeded or blocked."



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”