Hezbollah Drone Incident Suggests Divide Between Political, Military Wings

Residents of the southern Lebanese village of Khiam wave Hezbollah flags as they walk beneath a portrait of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on their return to their village on January 27, 2025. (Photo by Rabih DAHER / AFP)
Residents of the southern Lebanese village of Khiam wave Hezbollah flags as they walk beneath a portrait of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on their return to their village on January 27, 2025. (Photo by Rabih DAHER / AFP)
TT
20

Hezbollah Drone Incident Suggests Divide Between Political, Military Wings

Residents of the southern Lebanese village of Khiam wave Hezbollah flags as they walk beneath a portrait of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on their return to their village on January 27, 2025. (Photo by Rabih DAHER / AFP)
Residents of the southern Lebanese village of Khiam wave Hezbollah flags as they walk beneath a portrait of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on their return to their village on January 27, 2025. (Photo by Rabih DAHER / AFP)

The downing of a reconnaissance drone, which the Israeli military said belonged to Hezbollah, on Thursday exposed internal decision-making challenges within the group.

In a statement last week, Hezbollah called on the Lebanese state to address Israel’s delay in withdrawing troops from occupied Lebanese territory—an obligation under the 60-day timeframe set by the ceasefire agreement—without hinting at any unilateral military action.

This measured rhetoric was echoed by senior Hezbollah figures, including Secretary-General Naim Qassem and the head of its parliamentary bloc, Mohammad Raad, earlier this week.

Since the ceasefire on November 27, Hezbollah has avoided military actions in southern Lebanon, except for a missile strike on an Israeli military site in the Shebaa Farms during the first week.

Despite Israeli airstrikes, home demolitions, and incursions into Lebanese territory, including near the Litani River, Hezbollah has not responded with further military action.

Hezbollah's recent statements have suggested a focus on political, not military action, with Qassem saying military decisions are up to Lebanon’s “defensive strategy.”

However, Israel’s claim of downing a drone—unclaimed by Hezbollah—raises questions. If the group is proven responsible, it would disrupt its efforts to shift to a political approach, say Lebanese sources.

The sources note that Hezbollah has refrained from military action since the ceasefire deadline, signaling a political shift despite Israel’s continued occupation of Lebanese land.

Although there’s no confirmation of a split within the group, researcher Ali Amin pointed out confusion within Hezbollah.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that while Hezbollah tends to avoid divisions, recent reports suggest disagreements over the ceasefire deal.

Some members fear it could limit Hezbollah’s military power, making it harder for supporters to accept the group’s shift toward a non-military, civilian role.



Israeli Military Inquiry Says It ‘Failed to Protect’ Civilians on October 7

An aerial view shows members of the media during a visit to Kibbutz Kfar Aza, in the aftermath of a deadly attack by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, in southern Israel, October 15, 2023. (Reuters)
An aerial view shows members of the media during a visit to Kibbutz Kfar Aza, in the aftermath of a deadly attack by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, in southern Israel, October 15, 2023. (Reuters)
TT
20

Israeli Military Inquiry Says It ‘Failed to Protect’ Civilians on October 7

An aerial view shows members of the media during a visit to Kibbutz Kfar Aza, in the aftermath of a deadly attack by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, in southern Israel, October 15, 2023. (Reuters)
An aerial view shows members of the media during a visit to Kibbutz Kfar Aza, in the aftermath of a deadly attack by Hamas gunmen from the Gaza Strip, in southern Israel, October 15, 2023. (Reuters)

The Israeli military drastically underestimated the capabilities of Hamas before its attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and "failed in its mission to protect Israeli civilians", a summary of an Israeli military investigation published on Thursday said.

The perception that Hamas was not interested in a full-scale conflict and that Israel would have ample warning if that changed went unchallenged for years, the summary said, resulting in a lack of preparedness and ability to respond to an attack.

"The belief was that Hamas could be influenced through pressures that would reduce its motivation for war, primarily by improving living conditions in the Gaza Strip," the report said.

The investigation looked at Israeli military strategy, battle behavior and intelligence before, during and after October 7, 2023, when Hamas fighters stormed southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

More than 48,000 people have been killed in Israel's assault on Gaza since then, according to Palestinian health officials. Much of the enclave has been laid waste and most of the territory's 2.3 million prewar population have been displaced multiple times, humanitarian agencies say. Around 400 Israeli soldiers have also been killed.

The military investigation was conducted as calls grow from within the Israeli opposition and civil society for a national inquiry into the government's failures on the deadliest single day in modern Israeli history.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said a national inquiry would only be appropriate after the conclusion of the war.

The first phase of a ceasefire that began on January 19 is due to expire in two days' time.

The military investigation found Israel had focused its intelligence and military efforts on other fronts, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, and relied too heavily "on intelligence, barriers, and defensive measures alone", and was thus caught by surprise.

Military commanders did not perceive an urgent threat leading up to October 7 attacks and did not reinforce the troops defending the border.

A statement from the Israeli Prime Minister's Office on Thursday said that the military had not given the prime minister the findings of its investigations into the war.