Iraq’s plans to tackle the issue of armed factions have stalled due to a lack of communication with the administration of US President Donald Trump, an Iranian decision to avoid unnecessary actions, and fears of unintended shifts in the Shiite power balance, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Alleged negotiations over disarmament “may be merely symbolic and not aimed at real change,” the sources said.
Iraqi and Western officials familiar with the matter said Shiite forces remain uncertain whether a superficial resolution would be enough to defuse threats or if they are obliged to implement deep structural reforms within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and other armed factions.
Iraq’s government, led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, has tried to show a clear separation between the PMF and armed factions, but it has yet to secure US backing, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Iraqi political circles say “trial” talks have begun to address the factions’ status, with several options under consideration depending on US policy shifts.
Negotiations, now on hold, explored two main options for armed factions, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. One proposal called for them to disband, hand over their weapons to the PMF, and shift to politics.
But given the overlap between the PMF and these groups, this was seen as a way to bypass rather than solve the issue.
Iraqi politicians said such a move would reshape the political landscape, stripping some groups of their military edge.
Armed factions strongly opposed the idea, demanding guarantees, including key roles in state security agencies, before considering disarmament.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, western sources were skeptical and suggested the talks were more about easing pressure than real reform. They noted that while the PMF pays faction fighters, it does not control their actions, making a true disarmament deal unlikely.
Negotiations have stalled due to internal disputes within the Coordination Framework, as rivals of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani see dissolving armed groups or restructuring the PMF as an unexpected political gift for him.
They argue Sudani never imagined such an opportunity when he took office in October 2022.
Some Shiite factions fear even minor reforms in the PMF could help Sudani politically ahead of parliamentary elections expected this year. As a result, they are considering delaying any major decisions until the next prime minister, whom armed groups hope will be one of their own, sources say.
While Shiite leaders no longer feel immediate US pressure under Trump’s presidency, they face a tough choice: Should they make only symbolic changes while keeping their military influence or offer real concessions?
