In Lebanon, Israeli Strikes Point to a Precarious Ceasefire

 An Israeli army Merkava main battle tank deploys at a position in northern Israel along the border with southern Lebanon on March 18, 2025. (AFP)
An Israeli army Merkava main battle tank deploys at a position in northern Israel along the border with southern Lebanon on March 18, 2025. (AFP)
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In Lebanon, Israeli Strikes Point to a Precarious Ceasefire

 An Israeli army Merkava main battle tank deploys at a position in northern Israel along the border with southern Lebanon on March 18, 2025. (AFP)
An Israeli army Merkava main battle tank deploys at a position in northern Israel along the border with southern Lebanon on March 18, 2025. (AFP)

As Israel resumes heavy strikes in the Gaza Strip, escalating Israeli attacks in south Lebanon have killed five Hezbollah members in the last few days, according to security sources in Lebanon, underlining the fragility of a US-backed ceasefire.

The war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon marked the deadliest spillover of the Gaza war, rumbling across the frontier for months before escalating into a devastating Israeli offensive that wiped out the group's command and many of its fighters, along with much of its arsenal.

While the ceasefire brought about a big reduction in the violence, each side accuses the other of failing to fully implement it. Israel says Hezbollah still has infrastructure in the south, while Lebanon and Hezbollah say Israel is occupying Lebanese soil by not withdrawing from five hilltop positions.

The Israeli military has reported striking five Hezbollah members in three separate incidents in south Lebanon since March 15. In one of the incidents on Sunday, the Israeli military said it struck two Hezbollah members "who served as observation operatives and directed terrorist activities". Security sources in Lebanon said five Hezbollah members were killed.

The Israeli military said on Sunday that a gunshot hit a parked car in the Israeli community of Avivim, and that the shot most likely came from Lebanon. No one claimed responsibility.

STRIKES DESTROY PREFAB HOUSES

In Lebanon, Israeli strikes in two towns on Monday destroyed prefabricated houses brought to the area for people whose homes were destroyed in the war, security sources said.

Noting an increase in Israeli strikes in recent days, the UNIFIL peacekeeping force in south Lebanon "urges all actors to avoid any action that could upset the current delicate calm," spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said.

"We continue to urge Israeli forces to fully withdraw south of the Blue Line, and we continue to support the Lebanese Armed Forces in their deployment in the south of Lebanon," he added.

The Blue Line was drawn by the United Nations in 2000, when Israeli forces withdrew from south Lebanon, and separates the country from Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The ceasefire agreed in November required Hezbollah to have no weapons in the south and Israeli troops to withdraw as the US-backed Lebanese army deployed into the region.

Israel said earlier this month it had agreed to US-backed talks with Lebanon aimed at demarcating the border. It also released five Lebanese held by the Israeli military in what it called a "gesture to the Lebanese president".

Hezbollah officials have put the onus on the Lebanese state to liberate the remaining land still occupied by Israel. Still, leading Hezbollah official Ali Damoush said on Friday the group would not give up its arms while there was an occupation.

Analysts say Hezbollah would have to think very hard before taking any decision to escalate against Israel, noting that its overland resupply route to Iran was severed by the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria and that many of its supporters are homeless because of the devastation caused by the war.

"So far, Hezbollah is keen not to respond and to leave the decision to the government and the Lebanese army," said Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah.



Will Lebanon Be the Biggest Loser After the Ceasefire?

Smoke rises after an Iranian missile is intercepted over the Sahel Alma area in Mount Lebanon. (Reuters)
Smoke rises after an Iranian missile is intercepted over the Sahel Alma area in Mount Lebanon. (Reuters)
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Will Lebanon Be the Biggest Loser After the Ceasefire?

Smoke rises after an Iranian missile is intercepted over the Sahel Alma area in Mount Lebanon. (Reuters)
Smoke rises after an Iranian missile is intercepted over the Sahel Alma area in Mount Lebanon. (Reuters)

Political sources in Beirut warned Lebanon could emerge as the biggest loser when the current regional war ends, outlining their concerns to Asharq Al-Awsat.

Lebanon is heading toward a severe internal crisis, the sharpest in its modern history with the dispute centering on Hezbollah’s weapons.

The majority of Shiites in the country insists on keeping them, while most other segments say Lebanon’s survival depends on implementing government decisions to limit arms to the state, in line with Lebanese, Arab, and international positions.

The sources noted that Hezbollah has again entered a regional war it cannot influence, risking burdens Lebanon cannot bear.

Hefty price

The war is proving costly for those involved and for countries hit by its spillover.

A ceasefire would likely show Iran suffered heavy damage to its defense, industrial sectors, and infrastructure, potentially setting it back decades. But its size, energy resources, and experience with economic hardship may help it manage the aftermath, unless losses destabilize the system.

Iranian missiles are expected to have caused damage to Israeli institutions and infrastructure, despite a high interception rate. The cost of interception is steep, but Israel appears ready to absorb it, calling the conflict an existential war and relying on strong US support.

Lebanon will struggle the most. Its economy is already near collapse. The country faces a catastrophic situation, with about one million displaced and heavy destruction along the border with Israel.

Israel has said it intends to establish a “buffer zone” inside Lebanese territory, signaling a return of occupation to parts of the country “pending guarantees for the safety of Galilee residents.”

The most dangerous scenario is that Israel’s campaign on the Lebanese front continues even if a ceasefire is reached between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other.

The fallout is worsened by a deepening rift among Lebanon’s components, raising the risk of internal conflict.

The role of parliament Speaker Nabih Berri appears diminished as the conflict widens. The current crisis over the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador reflects a deeper divide between the Shiite camp and others over weapons, the war, and Lebanon’s regional role.

Hezbollah described the expulsion as a “sin”, demanding that the government reverse it.

‘Impossible to coexist’

Voices are rising in Lebanon, warning that it was “impossible to coexist” between a “quasi-state” and a “Hezbollah’s statelet.”

Countries that once backed Lebanon’s reconstruction, especially in the Gulf, are now focused on their own losses from Iranian attacks. They have also made clear that they will not help unless the Lebanese state takes full control over decisions of war and peace.

The sources reiterated their warning that Lebanon risks being the biggest loser, especially if Israel expands its ground offensive and internal divisions deepen to the point of questioning the country’s very formula of coexistence.


Netanyahu Says Israel Is Expanding ‘Buffer Zone’ in Lebanon

Smoke billows from an Israeli strike on Marjeyoun in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. (AFP)
Smoke billows from an Israeli strike on Marjeyoun in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. (AFP)
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Netanyahu Says Israel Is Expanding ‘Buffer Zone’ in Lebanon

Smoke billows from an Israeli strike on Marjeyoun in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. (AFP)
Smoke billows from an Israeli strike on Marjeyoun in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. (AFP)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that his country's forces were expanding a "buffer zone" in southern Lebanon as the military pressed ahead with its campaign against Hezbollah.

"We have created a genuine security zone preventing any infiltration toward the Galilee and the northern border," Netanyahu said in a video statement.

"We are expanding this zone to push the threat from anti-tank missiles further away and to establish a broader buffer zone."

Netanyahu said that dismantling Hezbollah "remains central" to Israel's objectives in Lebanon.

"It is connected to the broader confrontation with Iran," he said.

"We are determined to profoundly transform the situation in Lebanon," he added.

Lebanon was pulled into the Middle East war when Iran-backed Hezbollah began firing rockets into Israel on March 2 to avenge the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei.


Strike on Western Iraq Kills Seven Security Personnel

Members of Iraq's PMF carry the coffin of the PMF operations commander for Al-Anbar, Saad Dawai alongside others during a mass funeral in Baghdad on March 24, 2026. (AFP)
Members of Iraq's PMF carry the coffin of the PMF operations commander for Al-Anbar, Saad Dawai alongside others during a mass funeral in Baghdad on March 24, 2026. (AFP)
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Strike on Western Iraq Kills Seven Security Personnel

Members of Iraq's PMF carry the coffin of the PMF operations commander for Al-Anbar, Saad Dawai alongside others during a mass funeral in Baghdad on March 24, 2026. (AFP)
Members of Iraq's PMF carry the coffin of the PMF operations commander for Al-Anbar, Saad Dawai alongside others during a mass funeral in Baghdad on March 24, 2026. (AFP)

A strike on a base in western Iraq killed seven security personnel, the defense ministry said Wednesday, a day after an attack on the same base targeted the Popular Mobilization Forces.

"This resulted in the death of seven of our heroic fighters and the injury of 13 others," the ministry said of the strike in Anbar province, saying it specifically targeted the base's military healthcare clinic.

Rescue operations were ongoing, it added.

The base hosts Iraqi police, soldiers from the regular army and PMF, a security official told AFP.

It was hit by a deadly strike on Tuesday that the former paramilitaries blamed on the United States.

Iraq said late on Tuesday it would summon the US charge d'affaires and the Iranian ambassador after deadly strikes blamed on their countries, as Iraqi authorities granted the targeted groups the "right to respond".

Iraq has been pulled into the war sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, and which has since engulfed much of the region.

Iraq has long been a proxy battleground for the United States and Iran, and has struggled to balance diplomatic ties with both countries.

Since the war began, pro-Iran armed groups have claimed responsibility for attacks on US interests in Iraq and across the region, while strikes have also targeted these groups, including state-linked positions.

In the statement from the prime minister's office, however, Iraq granted former paramilitaries within the official armed forces the right to "respond to military attacks" by drones and aircraft that targeted their headquarters.