A suicide bombing that targeted the Mar Elias church in the Dweila district of Damascus has reignited debate over ISIS’s activity inside Syria, amid growing concerns that extremist groups are intensifying efforts to destabilize the government of President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Although a lesser-known faction, Saraya Ansar al-Sunna, claimed responsibility for the attack, multiple sources say various radical groups, despite differing ideologies, are now pursuing parallel strategies to undermine the Syrian state.
A senior commander in the New Syrian Army warned of a looming ISIS plan to stage a large-scale, surprise assault on Damascus. They said the group was seeking to infiltrate cities by moving militants from the vast Syrian desert into urban areas, while other factions were launching attacks driven by resentment and anger towards the authorities.
“ISIS’s current strategy is based on relocating from the desert into cities, embedding itself within civilian populations, and forming new sleeper cells,” the commander, who spoke under the condition of anonymity, told Asharq Al-Awsat.
“We have the capabilities to confront the threat and dismantle their networks. We know them better than anyone else,” they added.
According to the commander, the new Syrian army has disclosed sensitive intelligence on ISIS’s renewed push to infiltrate urban centers, warning that the extremist group is adapting its tactics as it regroups across Syria.
The commander also said the army uncovered key details of ISIS’s plans after dismantling a sleeper cell in Homs several months ago.
The militants had reportedly travelled from the Syrian desert, or al-Badiya, highlighting what the commander described as “a clear strategy” by ISIS to move from remote regions into population centers.
“The cell was part of a broader effort to penetrate cities from the desert,” the commander said, adding that the group appeared to be shifting its operational base closer to Damascus and other strategic urban areas.
The revelations come in the wake of the suicide bombing that struck the Mar Elias church.
One day after the June 22 attack, Syria’s Interior Ministry announced it had carried out a “precision operation” in coordination with the General Intelligence Directorate to track and dismantle ISIS hideouts in and around Damascus, including those believed to be directly linked to the church bombing.
ISIS was preparing to launch a wide-scale, coordinated assault on several Syrian cities, starting from Homs, revealed the commander, adding that the terror group’s strategy involved seizing control of multiple neighborhoods in key urban centers simultaneously, in a surprise offensive designed to destabilize the country.
“Dismantling the sleeper cells was crucial,” the commander told Asharq Al-Awsat.
“We reinforced our military presence in Homs and its surrounding areas. It was a major preemptive blow that disrupted ISIS’s plans and helped bolster stability in Syria.”
The group's tactical goals also included targeting religious sites belonging to Alawites, Murshidis, and Christians in an attempt to embarrass the Syrian government and project a sense of insecurity across the country.
“It’s a familiar ISIS tactic used in both Syria and Iraq to inflame sectarian tensions, undermine state authority, and recruit new followers through chaos,” the commander added.
The June 22 bombing of the Orthodox Saint Mar Elias church in Damascus, which killed and injured many civilians, appears to fit this pattern. Syria’s Interior Ministry quickly blamed ISIS for the attack and later announced the arrest of several individuals it said were affiliated with the group.
While local media have reported that ISIS is stepping up efforts to rebuild its networks after a period of dormancy, independent verification of these claims remains limited.
However, intelligence gathered by the Syrian army suggests that ISIS is prioritizing urban operations and symbolic attacks on religious sites, a strategy consistent with the government’s swift attribution of the church bombing to the group.
The bombing of the Mar Elias church, the first attack of its kind targeting worshippers inside a church in the capital since 1860, has triggered both shock and competing interpretations about who was behind the deadly blast.
While many Syrians and analysts have aligned with the government’s accusation that ISIS was responsible, citing the group’s enduring threat, some well-informed sources remain skeptical. They argue that despite similarities in method, the operation does not fully align with ISIS’s known tactics or ideological playbook in Syria, particularly at this stage of its insurgency.
“ISIS has never targeted churches in this manner within its areas of influence in Syria,” a source familiar with the group’s activity told Asharq Al-Awsat. “Such attacks do not serve its goals while it's engaged in a broader war against al-Sharaa’s government.
Historically, ISIS has defiled and desecrated churches, destroying crosses, smashing altars, and raising its black flags above Christian sites. These acts were documented in parts of Deir Ezzor, rural Homs, and Idlib over the past decade.
However, the group typically targeted religious symbols in already-conquered territory, rather than staging suicide bombings in government-controlled urban centers.
Further complicating the narrative is the fact that churches have also been struck by shelling or airstrikes carried out by the previous Syrian regime, undermining the notion that religious sanctuaries were ever fully protected during the war.
Syrian authorities are stepping up efforts to sever ISIS from its former support networks, using a mix of security operations and reconciliation initiatives aimed at individuals who once backed or belonged to the group.
Mediators involved in government-led reconciliation efforts told Asharq Al-Awsat that more than 150 former ISIS affiliates who were not found to have committed crimes against civilians have renounced the group and been granted amnesty.
“These individuals chose to walk away from ISIS, and the state responded by offering a path back through forgiveness,” one mediator said, describing the initiative as part of a broader strategy to drain the group’s residual influence in previously sympathetic communities.
Another mediator, a respected tribal elder who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity, revealed that many of those pardoned had joined the state’s reconciliation efforts after receiving endorsements from local religious and tribal figures.
Observers say the policy signals a strategic shift aimed at rehabilitating former ISIS affiliates who played no direct role in civilian bloodshed. The goal, they argue, is to detach these individuals from the group’s ideological grip, strip ISIS of its remaining support base, and stem future recruitment.
“We asked the government to settle the status of former ISIS members who had no blood on their hands, to encourage others to walk away from the group,” the mediator said. “The authorities understand that continued pursuit of these individuals could push them back into ISIS’s arms.”
However, he clarified that the state remains resolute in pursuing key ISIS operatives responsible for violence against civilians and rival factions such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. “There is no clemency for those who’ve committed acts of terror,” he said.
The reconciliation initiative runs parallel to ongoing military and intelligence operations targeting ISIS cells, as Damascus attempts to contain the group’s underground resurgence and prevent a return to widespread insurgency.
