After more than two years of intense fighting, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced on Monday that they had seized full control of the Sudanese Army’s 22nd Infantry Division, the military’s last remaining stronghold in Babanusa, the capital of West Kordofan.
Analysts say the fall of the strategically located, oil-producing city, which is also known for its dairy industry, could serve as a launchpad for further RSF advances into northern and southern parts of the state.
The Sudanese Army has issued no official statement more than 48 hours after the RSF announcement. However, pro-army social media pages reported that the military had withdrawn substantial forces from the city to Heglig, another key location in West Kordofan.
Pressure from the RSF has left major cities across the three Kordofan states increasingly vulnerable. The army now holds only El-Obeid and Um Rawaba in North Kordofan, and Heglig in West Kordofan, following the fall of Al-Nuhud and Babanusa.
In South Kordofan, the army retains control of Kadugli and Dilling, while the RSF holds Al-Dibabat. Their ally, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement–North (SPLM-N) led by Abdelaziz Adam al-Hilu, controls Kauda in the Nuba Mountains.
Babanusa lies about 600 kilometers southwest of Khartoum, near the East Darfur border. It is one of Sudan’s most important railway junctions, linking the west to the east and north, and is regarded as an economic hub due to its livestock industry and significant oil reserves.
Although the RSF has not publicly outlined its next objectives, former Sudanese officers say the city’s fall creates multiple avenues for further advances. A retired army officer, speaking anonymously, said Babanusa’s military and geographic significance could mark a turning point in the conflict, potentially opening the path to RSF attempts on major cities in South Kordofan, including Kadugli and Dilling.
He noted that the RSF has long listed El-Obeid as a priority target and has repeatedly attacked it; with RSF positions now nearby, a large-scale assault “is possible at any moment.”
The officer added that although the RSF declared a unilateral ceasefire, it did not adhere to it, continuing its assault on the 22nd Division until it captured the base – is an indication, he said, that the group’s military objectives remain far from exhausted.
Military experts say the RSF’s presence in Babanusa provides a strong platform for further operations, including support for its ally al-Hilu’s SPLM-N faction to push toward Kadugli, especially after recent army gains in several strategic towns in the state.
Mohamed Bashir Suleiman, former Deputy Chief of Staff and former army spokesman, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Babanusa’s fall was predictable. He said controlling the city grants the RSF “a wide operational maneuvering space.” Its economic value, particularly its oil, along with its social environment, which includes communities sympathetic to the RSF, also give the group political advantages as it expands its territorial hold in both Kordofan and Darfur.
Suleiman said RSF control of Babanusa places it in a stronger position to counter the army’s gains in North Kordofan, despite the military’s recent advances around El-Obeid and in the Nuba Mountains.
According to Suleiman, the Sudanese Army must adopt sound operational planning across all fronts in North and West Kordofan. This will require significant troop reinforcements, logistical support, and reserve forces to avoid costly setbacks. The army’s broader strategic goal, he said, remains the recovery of Darfur.
He added that the RSF’s seizure of Babanusa serves several aims, foremost among them driving the army out of areas where it traditionally enjoys social support in West Kordofan.
He noted that holding the city allows the RSF to maintain secure supply routes for fighters and weapons, expand its territorial control, and continue positioning itself for a future assault on strategically and symbolically important El-Obeid.
Suleiman said the RSF’s timing reflects an effort to strengthen its military and political leverage ahead of any renewed negotiations, particularly as the Quad, which comprises the United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, continues discussions over a proposed three-month humanitarian ceasefire.
