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Iraq’s New Government Faces Unpredictable Prospects

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stands beside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious event in Baghdad (Government Media)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stands beside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious event in Baghdad (Government Media)
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Iraq’s New Government Faces Unpredictable Prospects

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stands beside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious event in Baghdad (Government Media)
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stands beside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious event in Baghdad (Government Media)

Tension rippled through Iraq’s ruling Shiite alliance after authorities briefly listed Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi group as terrorist organizations, then swiftly reversed the move, at a time when debate over the next government is intensifying.

The decision and the rapid retreat from it revived scrutiny of a long running point of friction between United States pressure on Baghdad and Iranian influence in the country.

Iraq’s presidency said on Friday it had no knowledge of the designation of the Houthis and Hezbollah as terrorist entities and no role in freezing their assets.

It said such decisions are not sent to the presidency and that it only reviews and endorses laws approved by parliament and presidential decrees.

The statement added that decisions by the cabinet, the committee that freezes terrorist assets, and anti money laundering directives are not referred to the presidency for approval and that it learned of the designation only through social media, prompting the clarification.

The listing appeared in the 17 November 2025 edition of the official Gazette, which cited the government’s counterterrorism obligations under a series of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Authorities then moved to roll back the designation after a statement and a document from the Central Bank of Iraq confirmed that Baghdad’s approval had been limited to entities and individuals tied to ISIS and Al-Qaeda only.

Tension inside the Coordination Framework

Political figures and legal experts said the central bank operates as an independent institution and does not fall under direct government control.

But they said a corrective step taken by outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, including public clarification and an urgent investigation, escalated the dispute inside the Coordination Framework as negotiations over the next premier intensify.

Although the alliance issued no unified position, parties and factions close to it accused the government of making a deliberate move meant to signal alignment with the demands of the administration of President Donald Trump.

They made the accusation as presidential envoy Mark Savaya was expected in Baghdad after a similar visit by Washington’s envoy to Syria and Lebanon.

Sudani, who faces mounting pressure within his coalition and was even removed from an internal WhatsApp group by some Coordination Framework leaders according to political sources, issued a brief statement saying there would be no compromise on Iraq’s support for what he called peoples’ rights and sacrifices, a veiled reference to Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Former deputy prime minister Bahaa Araji, a political ally of Sudani, defended him. He said the incident was a technical error in a decision issued by a committee tied to the central bank which he described as an independent institution not subject to government will.

He said on X that the mistake would be corrected and that the investigation would prevent opportunists from exploiting it politically.

Impact on government formation

The episode unfolded as the Coordination Framework attempts to settle on a nominee for prime minister, amid clear divisions over whether to keep Sudani for a second term or replace him.

The uproar over what is now known as the central bank error has further complicated the alliance’s internal bargaining and opened the door to unexpected scenarios, political sources said.

At the same time, Shiite armed factions escalated their criticism. Ali al-Asadi, head of the political bureau of Harakat al-Nujaba, said listing the two groups as terrorists was an act of betrayal.

He also claimed Iraq had nominated US President Donald Trump for the Nobel Prize, which he called an insult to sacrifices. He said such a government does not represent the Iraqi people and posted a hashtag calling the move a death sentence for a second term.

The incident, which began as an administrative oversight and morphed into a political crisis, underscored the fragility of the balance Baghdad tries to maintain between its ties with the United States, its main financial and military partner, and its relations with groups aligned with Iran.

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Arab World

Lebanon’s Leaders Unite on Technical, Security Track in Talks with Israel

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri meets with UN Security Council Delegation in Beirut (Lebanese Parliament)
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri meets with UN Security Council Delegation in Beirut (Lebanese Parliament)
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Lebanon’s Leaders Unite on Technical, Security Track in Talks with Israel

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri meets with UN Security Council Delegation in Beirut (Lebanese Parliament)
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri meets with UN Security Council Delegation in Beirut (Lebanese Parliament)

Cabinet sources said Lebanon’s three top leaders remain aligned as negotiations with Israel move into a new phase, marked by the appointment of a civilian envoy, former ambassador to Washington and lawyer Simon Karam, to lead Lebanon’s delegation to the Mechanism Committee.

The move is intended to jolt the committee out of months of stagnation and push it toward a security agreement anchored in enforcing a cessation of hostilities, after earlier rounds were dominated by routine tallies of Israeli violations conducted with United Nations peacekeepers.

The sources said the leaders’ agreement to pull the Mechanism out of its deadlock coincided with drawing political boundaries for the talks.

These boundaries are strictly limited to ending Israeli violations and attacks, securing a withdrawal from the south, releasing Lebanese detainees, and revisiting and correcting border demarcation in response to Lebanon’s reservations over disputed points along the Blue Line that it considers part of its sovereign territory.

The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Lebanon insists on restricting the negotiations to non-negotiable security issues. It will not allow the talks to drift into discussions on normalizing relations with Israel or striking a peace agreement.

This position is shared by President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who was the first to propose adding civilians to the Mechanism.

The three leaders reiterated their stance ahead of the first round of talks, attended by US envoy Morgan Ortagus and joined by Karam, in defiance of the agenda set by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

They said Netanyahu is trying to raise the stakes to provoke Hezbollah against the state and sow confusion, even as the Israeli army continues its violations to turn the group’s base against it.

This became evident in the targeting of several homes between the banks of the Litani River, despite containing no weapons depots.

The sources said Netanyahu is escalating militarily to force Lebanon to accept Israeli terms, although he knows the negotiations will not deviate from their technical and security framework.

Lebanon, they said, remains committed to ensuring that only the state holds weapons.

The sources noted Berri’s insistence that he was the first to propose adding civilians to the Mechanism and asked where Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem stands on this proposal.

They asked whether he ever objected to his “older brother’s” suggestion, given that Qassem had declared in an open letter to the three leaders that he rejects negotiations with Israel.

Qassem later walked back parts of that letter by having a senior Hezbollah official convey a message that Berri was not its intended target, in an effort to prevent a rupture within the Shiite political camp.

The sources also questioned why Hezbollah objects to the talks if its “older brother” is the one negotiating on its behalf and was behind the United States mediated ceasefire agreement brokered by Amos Hochstein.

They said the only card Hezbollah has left is raising the ceiling of its objections, since it no longer has the ability to reset the negotiating table at a time when the balance of power has tilted in Israel’s favor, particularly after the group’s unilateral support for Gaza cost it its previous deterrence and rules of engagement.

The sources said Hezbollah lacks alternatives that would allow it to reverse the balance of power and is limiting itself to loud political objections that it cannot translate into military action.

This comes despite its insistence on keeping its weapons and its accusation that the Salam government committed a mistake by agreeing to the principle that arms must be exclusively in the hands of the state, beginning from north of the Litani to Lebanon’s international border with Syria, in parallel with progress in the negotiations.

They said Hezbollah is forced to calibrate its position, since it cannot afford to break with Aoun or jeopardize its alliance with Berri, a rupture that would leave the group exposed at a moment when it seeks internal protection.

Any strain in these relationships would also create negative repercussions for the Shiite community. The sources asked why the group does not place its cards in Berri’s hands, as he is better positioned to navigate Shiite public sentiment that seeks the liberation of the south and the return of its residents to their villages.

Berri is viewed, even by rivals, as the essential gatekeeper to any settlement that could restore international attention to Lebanon and open a path for reconstruction. He enjoys Arab and international ties that Hezbollah lacks, as the group remains reliant solely on Iran.

The sources said the negotiations’ entry into a new phase prompted United States pressure on Israel to prevent the war from expanding, after Lebanon agreed to Washington’s request to add a civilian to the Mechanism and task him with leading the delegation.

They urged Hezbollah to stand behind the state’s diplomatic choice and said the group’s fears that the talks could lead to a peace treaty with Israel are unfounded.

They noted that Berri himself was the first to support bringing civilians into the process, which should reassure Hezbollah and encourage it to give diplomacy a chance.

They added that Salam is not acting unilaterally and is coordinating with Aoun. Both leaders are working together to implement the government’s commitment to ensuring that only the state holds weapons.

They also revealed that communication between Aoun and Berri has not stopped. The two men reviewed the atmosphere surrounding the Mechanism’s meeting in Naqoura before the latest cabinet session.

According to the sources, Berri instructed his parliamentary bloc and senior Amal Movement members not to comment on the negotiations, positively or negatively.

The directive came because he wants to centralize the political message and avoid dragging party members on both sides into disputes that could spill into the streets.

Hezbollah, they said, also wants to protect its relationship with its sole remaining ally in Lebanon after its former partners in the so-called Axis of Resistance endorsed the principle of exclusive state authority over weapons.

The sources said Hezbollah knows that avenues for repairing its Arab and international relations remain closed, unlike Berri who maintains wide ties.

They questioned what Hezbollah is counting on after its leadership rejected Egypt’s initiative, insisting, according to Western diplomatic sources cited by Asharq Al-Awsat, on linking its position to US-Iran negotiations in hopes of safeguarding Iran’s leverage in Lebanon after regional setbacks for the Axis.

They said the government will take note of Hezbollah’s objection, although it will have no impact on the course of the talks.

Hezbollah will not mobilize its supporters in the streets to avoid friction with Amal, particularly since Berri does not oppose the launch of negotiations, which remain tied to liberating the south and implementing Resolution 1701.

Any attempt by Hezbollah to outbid Berri for populist gain would backfire and weaken the group’s standing within its own community.

Arab World

Trump’s Phase Two Remarks Revive Questions Over Gaza Article 17

Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)
Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)
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Trump’s Phase Two Remarks Revive Questions Over Gaza Article 17

Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)
Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)

A brief and cryptic remark by US President Donald Trump about modifying phase two of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, offered without any details, has stirred questions over how the accord will be executed.

Analysts say the comment points to a possible change in implementing the deal’s provisions rather than adjusting its core terms.

Instead of moving toward an Israeli withdrawal from the enclave, where Israel controls about 55% of the territory, and the disarmament of Hamas, they expect Washington to pivot to article 17, which allows for unilateral application of the peace plan without adhering to its sequencing.

They said phase two will be difficult to reach while key issues remain unresolved, including forming a peace council, establishing a Gaza administrative committee and deploying a stabilization force.

Article 17 of the ceasefire agreement, which took effect on October 10, states that if Hamas delays or rejects the proposal, the measures listed above, including an expanded aid operation, will be carried out in areas free of terrorism that the Israeli army hands over to the international stabilization force.

The peace document signed in October by Hamas and Israel covered only the provisions of what is known as phase one.

This includes an initial truce, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, conditions for exchanging detainees and prisoners and facilitating humanitarian aid. No formal agreement has been reached on phase two, which relates to governing Gaza after the war.

Trump said on Thursday that phase two of his Gaza peace plan will be modified very soon, amid growing concern over its stalled implementation. He did not specify what the changes would entail.

Saeed Okasha, an Israeli affairs analyst at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said Trump may be considering an adjustment anchored in article 17 to prevent the agreement from collapsing.

He said the article opens the way for dividing Gaza into an old Gaza and a new Gaza, an idea recently circulated by US envoy Steve Witkoff in several meetings last month.

Okasha said the amendment remains possible since the agreement was endorsed by the United Nations Security Council last month.

He said article 17 could be reactivated on grounds that Hamas has not met requirements for disarmament or other commitments, adding that such a shift could create a situation of neither war nor peace.

Ayman Al-Raqab, a Palestinian political analyst, said the lack of clarity over Trump’s intended changes has fueled concerns that any adjustment may entrench a division of Gaza at a time when Israel seeks to maintain a long term presence in the enclave. He said this aligns with proposals characterizing a new Gaza and an old Gaza.

Amid the uncertainty, the Axios news site reported that Trump plans to announce the start of phase two and unveil the new governance structure for Gaza before December 25. The site quoted two US officials as saying the formation of the international force and the governing body is in its final stages.

They expect Trump to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the end of December to discuss the steps.

Al-Raqab said phase two still faces hurdles, including the absence of a peace council and a technocratic government, the lack of a police force to assume its duties and the pending formation of a stabilization force. He said no major moves are likely before January.

Okasha said he sees no immediate prospect other than Israel expanding the areas it controls in the enclave to about 60% as long as implementation of the agreement remains stalled, though without a major escalation similar to what Israel is carrying out in southern Lebanon.

Several days ago, the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported on an Israeli plan to resettle about two million Palestinians in new areas under Israeli control east of the Yellow Line and to empty areas held by Hamas of all civilians while pursuing Hamas members there over time.

British newspaper The Telegraph also quoted Western diplomats as saying the US plan for Gaza carries the risk of dividing the enclave permanently, entrenching the presence of Israeli forces in the devastated strip.

About a week ago, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty underscored during a meeting in Barcelona with European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas the importance of preserving the territorial unity of Palestine, including the West Bank and Gaza, and rejected any measures that would entrench separation or undermine prospects for a two state solution.

Abdelatty reiterated that position on Wednesday, saying, “There is no place for talk of dividing Gaza. Gaza is an integrated territorial unit and is an inseparable part of the future Palestinian state together with the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. These are binding international legitimacy resolutions and certainly must be upheld.”

He said consultations continue with relevant parties on forming a Gaza administrative committee made up of technocrats to manage affairs on the ground.

Okasha said Egyptian efforts will continue to prevent any division of Gaza or any amendment that would undermine the agreement, adding that various scenarios remain possible as developments unfold around Trump’s plan.

Arab World

Abu Shabab Successor Pledges to Keep Up Resistance to Hamas

A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)
A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)
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Abu Shabab Successor Pledges to Keep Up Resistance to Hamas

A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)
A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)

Hamas was taken by surprise by news of the killing of Yasser Abu Shabab, the self-styled leader of armed groups operating east of Rafah in southern Gaza.

The movement stayed silent until his men confirmed he had been shot dead, while Israel’s account of the incident continued to stir questions amid firm denials from several sides. Ghassan al-Dahini, who is expected to take over the Popular Forces, vowed to press on in defying Hamas.

Hamas’s position

Hamas sources told Asharq al-Awsat that the movement had no involvement in the incident and learned of it with surprise, even though it has a clear policy of using force against anyone who collaborates with Israel.

The sources said the movement also has high level instructions to deal in particular with armed cells that serve Israel, including Abu Shabab’s group and others.

According to the sources, Hamas’s leadership decided to withhold comment until the circumstances of the killing became clear. Once the details were verified, the movement issued a statement.

The sources acknowledged that Hamas had hoped Abu Shabab would be killed by his own fighters who remained in the Rafah tunnels throughout the past period, but at the same time conceded that his death would have far reaching implications for Israel’s reliance on such armed groups. The sources said these groups have failed to achieve Israel’s aims, whether in challenging Hamas’s strength in Gaza, taking control of large areas or even sowing Palestinian divisions.

In its statement on Abu Shabab’s killing, Hamas said his fate was inevitable for anyone “who betrayed his people and homeland and accepted being a tool in Israel’s hands”. It accused him of criminal acts that represented “a clear break with national and social norms”. The movement praised families, tribes and clans that disowned Abu Shabab and anyone who had cooperated with Israel.

Israel, Hamas said, “had failed to protect its agents and would not be able to protect any of its collaborators”. It added that “anyone who undermines the security of his own people and serves the enemy will end up in the dustbin of history and lose any respect or standing within his community”.

The Israeli account

The Popular Forces, which Abu Shabab headed, confirmed he was killed while trying to break up a family dispute between members of the Abu Seneima clan. It stressed that Hamas had nothing to do with his death, describing the movement as “too weak to harm” the general commander or his comrades.

The group did not address the Israeli version that surprised many Palestinians. That account claimed Abu Shabab was beaten and kicked to death by his own escorts and bodyguards amid disputes over positions, money and his cooperation with Israel.

Hamas sources said the Israeli narrative amounted to a clear abandonment of those who work for it and was designed to tarnish Abu Shabab and the circumstances of his death in a way that serves Israel’s current interest in ending the phenomenon of such armed groups.

Israel had nurtured and supported them, the sources said, but now understands they have little value in influencing Hamas’s grip on Gaza and have become a burden, having failed to deliver what Israel sought, which was to fracture Palestinian society and take control of wide areas.

The sources estimated that Israel is now keen to eliminate Abu Shabab and others, particularly under continued United States pressure to move to the second phase of the war. That shift would reduce the areas under Israeli control in Gaza, where these groups are present. Israel had hoped they would serve as a governing force for the enclave.

Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Friday that Abu Shabab’s killing, after some had portrayed him as a rising force challenging Hamas’s rule, paints a more troubling picture.

It said official Israeli reports point to a silent and brutal war within his armed faction and that his killing was not a routine incident but a moment that exposed the collapse of Israel’s idea of forming a local alternative force to fill the civilian and security vacuum left by Hamas.

Although the newspaper had been first to report the security establishment’s version that he died from a severe beating, it later noted that he was shot during a brawl between his men and local families that then escalated into internal disputes.

The paper said Abu Shabab, in an earlier interview, “had boasted that he had become the strongest man in Gaza and saw himself as Hamas’s replacement. But the man who thought he was leading a revolution was brought down by the forces he helped empower and his vision of a different Gaza ended with the bullet that struck him in the back.”

A weak successor

The newspaper said Abu Shabab’s death created a “dangerous” vacuum and that no stable entity currently exists to replace Hamas in leading Gaza. It said existing militias are divided and disorganized and that Abu Shabab’s deputy, Ghassan al-Dahini, might assume leadership, although his position is far from secure.

Al-Dahini suffered a minor leg injury during the same incident and was taken to Barzilai Medical Center in Ashkelon for treatment, according to Israel’s Army Radio.

He appeared in a short video posted on social media performing the funeral prayer for Abu Shabab alongside dozens of gunmen, led by an elderly bearded man whose identity was not known.

In a brief interview with the Israeli newspaper published Friday, Al-Dahini vowed to continue Abu Shabab’s project and resist Hamas by establishing an alternative to its rule.

Al-Dahini, a former Palestinian security officer, described Hamas as too weak to undermine anyone’s morale.

Sources told Asharq al-Awsat that Abu Shabab was killed by two young men from the Debari and Abu Seneima clans. The two were later killed in a gunfight with Abu Shabab’s men during the incident in which he was present.