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Arab World

‘Tactical Calm’ May Precede Long War in Iraq

Demonstrators run amid tear gas as supporters of Iraqi Shiite armed groups attempt to move toward the US embassy located in Baghdad's Green Zone following the Israel and US strikes on Iran and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Baghdad, Iraq, March 1, 2026. (Reuters)
Demonstrators run amid tear gas as supporters of Iraqi Shiite armed groups attempt to move toward the US embassy located in Baghdad's Green Zone following the Israel and US strikes on Iran and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Baghdad, Iraq, March 1, 2026. (Reuters)
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‘Tactical Calm’ May Precede Long War in Iraq

Demonstrators run amid tear gas as supporters of Iraqi Shiite armed groups attempt to move toward the US embassy located in Baghdad's Green Zone following the Israel and US strikes on Iran and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Baghdad, Iraq, March 1, 2026. (Reuters)
Demonstrators run amid tear gas as supporters of Iraqi Shiite armed groups attempt to move toward the US embassy located in Baghdad's Green Zone following the Israel and US strikes on Iran and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Baghdad, Iraq, March 1, 2026. (Reuters)

The violent protests that erupted in Iraq among supporters of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei against US interests subsided on Monday.

It appears that a decision has been taken for the pro-Iran factions to rein in their reactions to give time for the resumption of communication with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

Restoring contacts will help put in place a plan for a possible long war against the US that covers a number of potential targets, some of which may be out of reach.

Influential leaderships ordered the angry protesters to withdraw from Baghdad’s Green Zone where they were trying to inch their way towards the American embassy. “An eerie calm has since been restored with the situation open for any scenario,” observers said.

The protesters had flooded the Green Zone soon after the confirmation of Khamenei’s death on Saturday. Security forces were clearly given an order to prevent them from reaching the US embassy, said an Iraqi official.

Overnight on Sunday, a number of protesters opened live fire at government forces. The Interior Ministry later said a “fifth column” had opened fire at security forces who were there to protect the protesters. Thirteen people were wounded in the unrest.

It did not detail how many were wounded by live fire shot by security forces, according to witnesses.

Various sources confirmed that the government, which is composed of various pro-Iran powers, had issued strict orders to prevent the protesters from breaching the embassy and to arrest any security leader who fails in preventing the launch of rockets and drones.

No leadership

Over the weekend, Iran’s supporters in Iraq acted without clear orders from their central command as the Revolutionary Guards were coming under Israeli and US attacks. What ensued were attacks against any target in Iraq and Kurdistan the factions could come up with.

American reports on Sunday said the Guards no longer have a central base for guiding operations, forcing allied factions to improvise in launching their retaliatory attacks.

Consequently, the factions hit the US Victoria base near Baghdad International Airport. In Basra, they attacked a system of radars; and in Nasiriyah, they fired booby-trapped drones at the Imam Ali base.

The capital of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, Erbil, “paid the highest price” for Khamenei’s killing, said a Kurdish officer.

“The attacks have been countless. Drones are fired every hour,” he added.

The drone attacks focused on the new US consulate building and Harir military base, revealed American and Kurdish sources.

Calm

By Monday, the strict security measures around the Green Zone remained in place, but the angry factions, mostly Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces, had retreated.

Observers believe Baghdad has entered a phase of “tactical calm” after the shock of Khamenei’s death. The Guards appear to be “catching their breath” and will begin resuming regular communication with their Iraqi agents.

Various sources said the Iraqi factions view Hezbollah’s attack against Israel overnight on Sunday as a sign that contacts had resumed between the Lebanese party and Iran. Tehran had ordered Hezbollah to act, and it did. A similar order will likely be issued to the factions in Iraq.

American estimates believe that the Iranian response to Khamenei’s killing will ease in the coming days due to logistical reasons or because Tehran will be preoccupied with the transition to post-Khamenei rule. Shiite circles in Iraq, however, believe that a long war is in store.

Secretary of Iran’s national security council Ali Larijani said his country has prepared itself for a long war more so than the US.

Target bank

Such a conflict demands a target bank that is not all within reach of the factions seeking to avenge Khamenei’s death, said a leading member of the pro-Iran Shiite Coordination Framework in Iraq.

The targets may include American interests that will harm Washington in the medium-term, such as the consulate and Harir base in Erbil and Victoria base in Baghdad.

In a longer war, the factions may target American investments in gas and oil fields across Iraq. An attack against the US embassy may be saved for a decisive moment in the conflict and will be decided by the Guards, said sources close to the factions.

The factions may also “relish” the idea of carrying out assassinations against the “enemies of Iran,” they added.

The unrest will pose the biggest challenge to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's caretaker government. It will find itself caught in the middle of Shiite factions that want to escalate the conflict against the US and an emerging Arab alliance that has been targeted by Iran’s attacks, said a former government official.

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Arab World

Sudanese Army Welcomes RSF Defectors

Sudanese Army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan receives Major General Al-Nour Qubba, who defected from the Rapid Support Forces. (Sovereignty Council)
Sudanese Army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan receives Major General Al-Nour Qubba, who defected from the Rapid Support Forces. (Sovereignty Council)
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Sudanese Army Welcomes RSF Defectors

Sudanese Army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan receives Major General Al-Nour Qubba, who defected from the Rapid Support Forces. (Sovereignty Council)
Sudanese Army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan receives Major General Al-Nour Qubba, who defected from the Rapid Support Forces. (Sovereignty Council)

Sudan’s army is increasingly absorbing defectors from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), betting that growing divisions within the paramilitary group can help consolidate military gains in a civil war that has become one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

The latest sign of that strategy came last month when authorities in Khartoum granted a military rank to Ali Rizqallah, a former RSF commander who defected alongside several other senior figures. The army-backed government welcomed the move as evidence of widening cracks within the RSF.

The conflict erupted on April 15, 2023, after a power struggle between the army and RSF spiraled into open warfare. Since then, the war is believed to have killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions, and fueled famine and disease across large parts of the country.

Some of the worst violence has unfolded in Darfur, an RSF stronghold where the force has been accused of committing atrocities. Alleged abuses during the group’s assault on al-Fashir last October were documented in a Reuters investigation.

Halima, a resident of Darfur now living in the town of Tawila, said she was forced to flee repeatedly as RSF fighters raided villages surrounding al-Fashir. She recounted that she witnessed women being raped and was herself whipped by RSF personnel.

Sudanese refugees from Darfur walk amidst a sandstorm at the Touloum refugee camp, amid ongoing conflict in their country, on the outskirts of the town of Iriba in Wadi Fira province, eastern Chad, November 30, 2025. (Reuters)

“My arm is covered in scars all the way down to here,” she said, pointing toward her leg as she described the marks left on her body.

Anger toward the RSF is also widespread in neighboring Kordofan. A merchant in the town of Al-Nuhud revealed that he plans to file a lawsuit over the looting of warehouses and food stores.

Speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation, he blamed the RSF for the losses. But Mohamed Salah al-Din, a member of the executive council of the Emergency Lawyers group, said such individual cases are unlikely to gain broad traction amid the turmoil of war.

“This issue cannot be addressed piecemeal,” he stated. “It requires transitional justice.”

His comments contrast with efforts already underway to prosecute alleged collaborators. Emergency Lawyers said it has documented 243 cases referred to the courts involving accusations ranging from supplying intelligence to the RSF to cooking for its fighters.

The army is also seeking to exploit tribal tensions within the RSF’s support base. Several of the group’s senior commanders come from the Arab Rizeigat tribe, where rival clans have become increasingly divided, particularly after an RSF raid earlier this year on the hometown of Musa Hilal, a powerful tribal leader aligned with the military.

Hilal belongs to the Mahamid clan, while critics accuse the RSF of operating through a tribal and ethnic hierarchy that disproportionately benefits the family of its commander, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti.

“The RSF has become the preserve of a specific group and a single family,” critics said. “The project that builds a state must be a Sudanese national project, not one based on tribal loyalties.”

The Sudanese military is hoping those divisions will trigger further defections, replicating the success it achieved in Al Jazirah State, where the 2024 defection of militia commander Abu Aqla Keikal helped shift momentum decisively in the army’s favor.

Arab World

Hamas Inclined Toward ‘Positive’ Response to Mladenov Amendments Despite Internal Objections

Mourners grieve for Palestinian woman Shahd Ashour, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Monday in Gaza City (AP). 
Mourners grieve for Palestinian woman Shahd Ashour, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Monday in Gaza City (AP). 
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Hamas Inclined Toward ‘Positive’ Response to Mladenov Amendments Despite Internal Objections

Mourners grieve for Palestinian woman Shahd Ashour, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Monday in Gaza City (AP). 
Mourners grieve for Palestinian woman Shahd Ashour, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Monday in Gaza City (AP). 

Expectations are growing that Hamas and other Palestinian factions will respond positively to revised proposals put forward by Nikolay Mladenov, the senior international mediator for Gaza within the Peace Council framework, despite emerging opposition to the latest amendments he has made to a roadmap first presented to the movement in April.

Hamas and participating factions are reviewing the newest version of Mladenov’s proposals, which are intended to advance a fragile Gaza ceasefire announced in October as part of a plan introduced by US President Donald Trump. Palestinian officials accuse Israel of repeatedly violating the agreement, saying more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the truce took effect.

Two Hamas sources and a third source from another Palestinian faction involved in the negotiations criticized the amendments, arguing that they depart from key provisions of the original agreement. Their objections focus on issues including an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, implementation of the first phase of the deal, the rights of employees affiliated with the Gaza administration, reconstruction guarantees across the enclave, and the broader political framework.

The disagreements have complicated indirect talks between Israel and Palestinian factions over advancing to subsequent stages of the ceasefire agreement. Palestinian negotiators insist that Israel must fulfill first-phase commitments, including withdrawing troops from occupied areas and allowing the entry of aid and commercial goods. Israel, meanwhile, continues to press for the disarmament of Palestinian factions as a central element of the next phase.

A Hamas source based outside Gaza noted that some implementation mechanisms in the roadmap remain unclear. The movement and other factions, he said, will seek additional clarification to ensure Israel fulfills its obligations.

A factional source inside Gaza echoed those concerns, arguing that certain revisions and the removal of previously agreed provisions effectively undermine earlier understandings. “There are attempts to impose a new reality that serves Israel’s interests at the expense of Palestinian rights,” he stated.

Despite the criticism, all three sources said Hamas and the factions are generally inclined to engage constructively with the revised proposal. They are expected to submit comments and additional amendments aimed at strengthening implementation of the original agreement signed in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh in October 2025. A formal response is expected within days.

According to Hamas officials, the movement’s leadership seeks to build on recent understandings reached in Cairo in order to secure a permanent end to the war and alleviate humanitarian suffering in Gaza.

A Hamas source outside the enclave said negotiators are working toward an agreement that would prevent Israel from maintaining long-term security control or creating a security vacuum by limiting weapons while continuing military operations, either directly or through armed groups that Hamas and other factions insist must be dismantled.

Meanwhile, Israeli military operations continued across Gaza. On Monday, Israeli forces killed a paramedic after targeting a vehicle in the al-Mawasi area of Khan Younis in southern Gaza. Six others were wounded.

Earlier, an Israeli strike in Gaza City’s al-Rimal neighborhood targeted a vehicle with four missiles during the busy morning rush hour. The attack killed an 11th-grade student and wounded at least eight others. A local field source said the intended target escaped after abandoning the vehicle following the first missile strike.

According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, the death toll since the ceasefire began has surpassed 1,026, with more than 3,260 people injured. The ministry says more than 73,000 people have been killed in Gaza since October 7, 2023.

 

 

Arab World

New Lebanon-Israel Talks to Begin, in Shadow of US-Iran Deal

This picture taken from a position in northern Israel, near the border with Lebanon shows an Israeli military vehicle driving along a road in southern Lebanon on June 22, 2026. (AFP)
This picture taken from a position in northern Israel, near the border with Lebanon shows an Israeli military vehicle driving along a road in southern Lebanon on June 22, 2026. (AFP)
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New Lebanon-Israel Talks to Begin, in Shadow of US-Iran Deal

This picture taken from a position in northern Israel, near the border with Lebanon shows an Israeli military vehicle driving along a road in southern Lebanon on June 22, 2026. (AFP)
This picture taken from a position in northern Israel, near the border with Lebanon shows an Israeli military vehicle driving along a road in southern Lebanon on June 22, 2026. (AFP)

Lebanon heads into a new round of talks with Israel on Tuesday in Washington, with Beirut determined to press ahead with direct negotiations even as they appear to be overshadowed by Iran's decision to make Lebanon part of its negotiations with the United States.

Lebanese officials have insisted that face-to-face negotiations with Israel are the only way to secure an end to the war raging since March 2, when armed group Hezbollah fired at Israel in support of Iran and triggered Israeli air and ground attacks that have killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon.

But four rounds of Lebanese-Israeli talks since April failed to produce a durable ceasefire. Instead, the longest lull in fighting came this week after Iran and the US agreed a memorandum of understanding that stipulated fighting would halt across all fronts, including Lebanon.

That deal buoyed Iran-backed ‌Hezbollah and dealt ‌a blow to the Lebanese state, whose leaders including President Joseph Aoun had repeatedly warned ‌that ⁠Tehran cannot negotiate ⁠on Lebanon's behalf.

A Lebanese official and two foreign officials working on Lebanon told Reuters the Iran-US deal had pulled the rug out from the Lebanese state, leaving it in its weakest position yet and throwing into question the utility of its talks with Israel this week.

The Lebanese official was skeptical that any tangible progress would come out of the negotiations, which are set to last for three days.

"There remains a fundamental problem of trust between us and the Israelis in these talks. We cannot fulfill their demands, and they reject all of ours," the official said.

LEBANON TO SEEK ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL TIMELINE

Lebanon has ⁠said that one of its key goals in the talks would be securing an ‌Israeli military withdrawal, but top Israeli officials have said that troops would ‌remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely.

The Lebanese official said that Beirut would demand Israel present a "reasonable" timetable for its withdrawal at the talks.

"This ‌is the only chance we have to generate momentum in these talks, and in this tug-of-war with Iran," ‌the official said.

Israel, meanwhile, sees the purpose of the upcoming talks as "disarming Hezbollah and achieving a genuine peace agreement" with Lebanon, according to a briefing by Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer on the eve of the new negotiations.

Mencer said the only impediment to a deal with Lebanon was Hezbollah, "which is why we believe that they should be disarmed and dismantled."

The Lebanese government has moved ‌carefully since 2025 to disarm Hezbollah without confronting the group directly, fearing it would spark a civil conflict.

Hezbollah has rejected disarming in full and has called on the ⁠government to withdraw from its ⁠direct talks with Israel.

HEZBOLLAH BETS ON IRAN AS NEGOTIATOR

Karim Safieddine, a fellow at the Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told Reuters there was a risk that Israel could assume an even more hardline position in the Washington talks given its officials' anger over the US-Iran deal.

While that deal had brought relative calm to Lebanon, there was "no structural change" in the Lebanese and Israeli positions that indicated progress could be made at the negotiating table, Safieddine said.

Aoun first proposed direct talks in March, but they only began in mid-April, after the US announced a ceasefire to enable a diplomatic process that Washington said would ultimately lead to a peace deal.

Israeli air strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs then largely stopped, but fierce fighting continued in southern Lebanon as Israeli troops pushed deeper into Lebanese villages.

The US announced a new ceasefire initiative in early June again as part of the Lebanese-Israeli talks, but it was contingent on Hezbollah halting fire and was rejected by the group.

Hezbollah expects Iran to demand an Israeli withdrawal as it pursues talks with the US on a final deal, and says the Lebanese government should bet on that track instead of its direct negotiations.