Western diplomatic sources expressed concern that Iraq may be heading toward a power struggle between one camp seeking to remove the country from the region's axis politics and another insisting that priority be given to its alliance with Iran in its confrontation with the United States, placing Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi's government in an extremely difficult position.
The sources revealed that Iraqi authorities refrained from acknowledging that attacks against neighboring countries had originated from Iraqi territory in order to avoid being drawn into a premature confrontation before the conditions for engaging in such a conflict had been met.
They said Iraqi officials know that groups directed by Iranian adviser Javad Ghaffari were responsible for launching attacks against Kuwait from the Basra area, while other groups targeted the United Arab Emirates from the desert between Samawah and Najaf, the same area previously used to launch attacks on Saudi facilities. They added that attacks targeting the Kurdistan Region originated from a limited area between the provinces of Salahuddin, Kirkuk, and Diyala, under the supervision of Iranian adviser Iqbal Pour.
The sources said the primary objective of the attacks was to undermine Iraq's relations with neighboring countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, by sending a message to Gulf Cooperation Council states that pursuing policies opposed to Iran's would come at a high cost.
They added that the second objective was to embarrass Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi, who had been preparing to visit Saudi Arabia as part of his plan to improve Iraq's relations with regional countries and use those ties as the basis for a more balanced foreign policy. They did not rule out the possibility that the attacks were also intended to punish Al-Zaidi for insisting that his first official foreign visit be to Washington, despite repeated calls for him to begin his foreign tour in Tehran.
The sources said the third objective was to intimidate Iraq's military and security establishment to prevent it from enforcing the government's decision to place all weapons under exclusive state control, which Al-Zaidi had pledged to implement after the departure of the last US soldier from Iraq at the end of next September. They noted that what they described as "rogue factions" reacted negatively to Al-Zaidi's remarks that there would be no justification for continuing armed resistance after that date because "resistance is not a profession."
The sources also revealed that security agencies had raised their alert level after military and security personnel received threats against themselves and their families if they participated in efforts to enforce the state's monopoly on arms. They said concerns intensified following reports that groups previously involved in assassinations had updated their target lists to include senior officials, led by Al-Zaidi and Supreme Judicial Council President Faeq Zaidan, in addition to intelligence and security officials.
The sources said Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi had delivered a message during his visit to Baghdad from GCC leaders stating that the member states possess photographs and documents proving that attacks against Gulf countries originated from Iraqi territory. Albudaiwi urged the Iraqi authorities to act swiftly to stop the attacks, stressing that GCC states reserve their legitimate right to defend themselves unless the attacks cease.
They added that Iraqi security agencies possess reliable intelligence indicating that drones are assembled either in the Jurf Al-Sakhar area or the Jurf Al-Naddaf area in eastern Baghdad. The Al-Nujaba Movement controls the Jurf Al-Naddaf site, which is officially designated as a Popular Mobilization Forces facility. Jurf Al-Sakhar is likewise officially listed as a PMF site and is operated by Kataib Hezbollah. The sources also referred to additional sites in Suwayrah in Wasit province and in Babil province.
The sources noted that Al-Zaidi's policies enjoy broad support among ordinary Iraqis, who have been exhausted by years of war and economic decline, but said that the rogue armed factions remain the strongest force on the ground. They said the outcome of the looming power struggle will depend on the level of support Al-Zaidi receives from the Coordination Framework, particularly since he has neither a parliamentary bloc nor a political party. They added that the balance of power will inevitably be influenced by the outcome of the current military confrontation between the United States and Iran.
