Prospects for talks between Syria’s new leadership and Lebanon’s Hezbollah remain limited despite public statements from both sides expressing openness to dialogue, analysts said.
Any meeting would have to take place through official Lebanese channels, under a prearranged agenda and in coordination with the Lebanese authorities, conditions that do not currently exist.
“The Syrian government has repeatedly stressed that its relations with Lebanese parties must go through the Lebanese authorities and their legitimate channels,” academic and politician Kamal Abdo told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Relations between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah are strained over the group’s weapons and its role in the war with Israel, Abdo said.
Ties between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah would therefore need to improve before Damascus could normalize relations with the group.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem said on Tuesday that there was no objection to a public meeting with the Syrian leadership when both sides considered the timing appropriate.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said in June that he would not oppose talks if they served Lebanon’s interests and safeguarded Syrian interests.
Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani also said during a visit to Lebanon in early July that Syria would not take sides between Lebanese parties if the interests of both countries required a meeting with Hezbollah, despite the group’s past support for Bashar al-Assad.
Military analyst Rashid Hourani said Damascus could agree to talks at a level of representation it would determine, but only if it believed a meeting would benefit both Syria and Lebanon.
He said Syria also opposed negotiations between Lebanon and Israel taking place under military pressure that would allow Israel to impose its conditions. Weakening Lebanon in the face of Israel would also weaken Syria, he said, adding that previous methods of confrontation were no longer effective.
The main Syrian priority in any talks would be ending weapons and drug smuggling across the Syrian-Lebanese border, Abdo said.
Hezbollah is unlikely to surrender its influence over the border, which serves as its only overland weapons supply route through Syria. Damascus, however, regards Hezbollah’s weapons as an internal Lebanese issue for Beirut to address.
Abdo said Hezbollah’s main concern was the possibility of Syrian military intervention in Lebanon under US and Arab pressure, despite repeated Syrian assurances that it had no intention of intervening.
He also described Qassem’s statement as carrying a veiled warning that any Syrian intervention in Lebanon over Hezbollah’s weapons could spread instability into Syria.
Hourani said possible talks would focus on two areas.
The first would involve Syrian security demands, including an end to Hezbollah’s attempts to reconnect with networks along the border, particularly in Homs and Tartous, and the disclosure of weapons depots the group received from the former government inside Syria.
The second would concern Hezbollah’s acceptance of Lebanese state authority, including restricting weapons to the state, enabling the Lebanese army to perform its duties and deploying it across the full Syrian-Lebanese border.
Hourani said Hezbollah’s willingness to meet the Syrian government reflected weakness and an attempt to survive as it faced tighter controls on the Syrian-Lebanese and Syrian-Iraqi borders, declining supplies and growing Syrian leverage.
Those pressures could push Hezbollah to accept the Syrian approach, even temporarily, he said.
