Iran is pushing proposals to avert a confrontation between Iraq’s government and Tehran-aligned armed factions over their weapons, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf taking the effort to Baghdad ahead of a Sept. 30 disarmament deadline.
Iraqi sources said Ghalibaf’s visit to Baghdad on Wednesday goes well beyond its stated parliamentary purpose, with talks focused on political and security issues — chiefly the fate of armed factions’ weapons as the deadline to bring all arms under state control approaches.
The sources said Ghalibaf was carrying Iranian proposals aimed at averting a direct confrontation between the Iraqi government and Tehran-aligned factions.
The ideas include “freezing” or concealing heavy weapons and possibly transferring a large portion of them temporarily to Iran until a political settlement is reached over the future of the factions’ arsenals.
The details of the proposals could not be independently verified, and neither Tehran nor the Iraqi government has announced them publicly.
An Iraqi government source, who asked not to be identified, said the government was “determined to respect its deadlines” and bring weapons under state control by the end of September, coinciding with the completion of the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq under a timetable agreed by Baghdad and Washington.
The Iraqi government has said Sept. 30 marks the end of the timeline for implementing its weapons-control plan.
The government source said the position was reaffirmed during meetings held by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi after his return from Washington, and at the latest meeting of the State Administration Coalition, which backed efforts to bring weapons under state control.
The coalition had previously voiced support for the plan, while the government has taken practical steps including forming a committee to oversee disengagement and integration, creating a weapons database and closing fictitious offices linked to the Popular Mobilization Forces.
Pressure builds with armed factions
Ghalibaf’s visit comes as tensions rise between the government and some armed factions, particularly Kataib Hezbollah, which has rejected handing over what it calls “resistance weapons.”
The government source said the authorities would not be drawn into “wars of words” or “ill-considered confrontations” and would press ahead with enforcing the constitution and the law.
He said the increasingly sharp tone of some faction statements, along with videos and remarks seen as inciting or threatening the prime minister, showed the pressure building around the weapons-control plan.
Statements by Kataib Hezbollah have stirred debate within political circles and among the factions themselves, particularly over the language used against al-Zaidi.
Media outlets and social media platforms have also carried statements and videos containing direct threats or warnings to the prime minister, including the phrase “don’t play with the big boys,” attributed to a local official in Babil province, according to the sources.
The government source said al-Zaidi’s refusal to respond in kind, coupled with his insistence on sticking to the timetable, had put Shiite forces within the Coordination Framework in a difficult position.
They now face, he said, regional and international support for the prime minister on one side and political pressure and corruption cases involving some figures linked to them on the other.
The source said some leaders affected by those cases had left the country, while others had disappeared from public view, prompting factions within the Coordination Framework to look for a settlement that could prevent an inter-Shiite confrontation.
“Freeze,” hide or move the weapons
A well-informed political source told Asharq Al-Awsat that one option under discussion was to extend the deadline implicitly without making a formal announcement.
Under that approach, the prime minister would be persuaded that progress had been made in bringing weapons under state control, while the continued possession of arms by two or more factions whose leaders had their own “convictions and conditions” could be handled through dialogue rather than armed confrontation.
The source said those backing the proposal feared a clash between the government and Shiite factions. But al-Zaidi, he added, remained committed to enforcing the law and was relying on judicial support for the weapons-control effort.
According to the source, the prime minister believes any retreat from the deadline or from the substance of the plan would leave him a prime minister “stripped of authority.”
He believes some faction statements have sought to reinforce that image by questioning his political legitimacy, describing him as still merely “designated” to form a government and criticizing his young age.
The government says the plan is rooted in its ministerial program, which calls for bringing weapons under state control, enforcing the rule of law, unifying security decision-making and placing military resources and capabilities within the official state system.
The political source said one version of the proposal Ghalibaf is believed to be discussing with the factions, al-Zaidi and some Coordination Framework leaders would “freeze” or “conceal” the factions’ heavy weapons.
It would also raise the possibility of moving a large portion of those weapons to Iran as a “deposit” until talks are completed.
The source said the idea was designed to offer a face-saving way out for factions that regard the weapons as “Shiite weapons” that cannot be negotiated away, while allowing them to avoid a complete break with the prime minister and the Shiite forces backing him, as well as Sunni and Kurdish forces that support bringing weapons under state control.
Why Ghalibaf matters
Ghalibaf’s visit carries added weight because of his position within Iran’s political establishment and is not confined to parliamentary ties.
He arrived in Baghdad at the head of a parliamentary delegation but has since held meetings and conducted activities with a wider political and security dimension.
The way he was received at Baghdad airport also carried political significance, according to the sources.
Adnan Fayhan, first deputy speaker of parliament and a senior figure in the Asaib Ahl al-Haq movement, received Ghalibaf instead of Parliament Speaker Haibat al-Halbousi.
In his remarks in Baghdad, Ghalibaf openly acknowledged the political and regional dimension of the visit.
He said the “resistance” in Iraq had become a fundamental element of the country’s strength and that ties between Baghdad and Tehran were moving toward consolidating a “new regional order” free from foreign interference.
Ghalibaf said the visit aimed to strengthen cooperation among countries in the region and to build new security and regional arrangements.
His remarks align with a broader Iranian view of the role armed factions play in regional security calculations.
Tehran’s recent moves suggest the factions’ weapons have become part of a wider discussion between Iran and Iraqi political forces, rather than simply an internal dispute over enforcing a government decision.
Ghalibaf’s visit was preceded by an unannounced trip to Baghdad by Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, whose meetings covered the factions’ weapons and regional developments, according to Iraqi sources.
