Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Thursday backed Iraq’s push to bring weapons under state control amid a Sept. 30 deadline.
Ghalibaf also reaffirmed Tehran’s commitment to security agreements between the two countries.
He arrived in Baghdad on Wednesday with a high-level Iranian delegation for an official visit due to end on Thursday with a trip to Najaf after meetings with Iraqi political and religious leaders, particularly the main factions in the Coordination Framework.
His visit comes as the issue of armed factions moves to the center of Iraq’s political agenda ahead of the deadline set by the country’s main political forces for bringing weapons under state control.
The State Administration Coalition, which includes leading Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish political forces, said after an Aug. 5 meeting that weapons must be confined to state institutions.
It described groups operating outside official structures in ways that threaten national security as “illegitimate.”
Visit falls short of its aims
Informed Iraqi sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Ghalibaf’s visit “did not achieve all its objectives,” particularly an effort to “soften Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s position” on enforcing the state monopoly on weapons once the deadline expires at the end of September.
While in Baghdad, Ghalibaf met several Shiite leaders and attended a Coordination Framework meeting on Wednesday evening, which was also attended by al-Zaidi.
The talks come as political forces search for a way out of one of the government’s most sensitive disputes, while armed factions, according to the same sources, have begun putting forward new conditions over how their weapons should be handled.
Al-Zaidi, according to prevailing political assessments, remains committed to the deadline for handing weapons over to the state, despite pressure from political forces and armed factions seeking to revise either the deadline or the terms of implementation.
An informed Iraqi politician said Coordination Framework leaders were no longer as well placed to mediate between al-Zaidi and factions rejecting the weapons plan, citing divisions within the alliance and the growing overlap with other political and judicial disputes.
The source also linked that weakness to the role of Supreme Judicial Council President Faiq Zidan, amid the possibility that anti-corruption measures could widen to include other leaders and figures within the Coordination Framework.
Al-Zaidi digs in
Political assessments suggest al-Zaidi has told lawmakers and officials in private meetings that he does not intend to retreat from the Sept. 30 deadline.
One scenario under discussion is al-Zaidi’s resignation, an option the sources say some forces implicated in corruption cases may favor in hopes of reshuffling the political landscape.
But al-Zaidi could instead take his case directly to the public, a move that could weaken his political opponents, particularly if he wins the backing of Moqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Sadrist movement, one of the most prominent Shiite blocs.
Other sources familiar with discussions inside the Coordination Framework said some parties were seeking to tie the countdown to the Sept. 30 weapons deadline to the anti-corruption campaign, which has no fixed timetable.
Such a move, they said, could open the door to political bargaining between the two issues.
The Iraqi politician who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat said one scenario would see al-Zaidi score gains in the anti-corruption campaign against political, administrative, and government figures, regardless of their level of responsibility, potentially strengthening his standing with the public.
In return, political forces could push to extend the weapons deadline, either by freezing the process, concealing weapons, or moving them outside Iraq.
The proposal has so far failed to persuade al-Zaidi, the source said, citing what he described as international commitments the prime minister made during his visit to the United States.
Dispute over control of key issues
Behind the scenes, some Coordination Framework parties believe al-Zaidi may have gone too far in his handling of the weapons and corruption files.
From their perspective, allowing one side to control both issues would be difficult because of their political overlap and because rival forces do not want a single actor, even the prime minister, to manage them alone.
Those holding that view argue that al-Zaidi reached the premiership with the backing of the main Shiite forces and therefore cannot, in their view, override or challenge them on issues directly tied to their political and security interests.
In that context, comments by Faleh al-Fayyad, head of the Popular Mobilization Forces, carried particular significance.
“The choice of Ali al-Zaidi as prime minister was born in this room,” al-Fayyad said in a television interview, referring to the room where the interview was being conducted.
The PMF is an institution linked to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, a position held by al-Zaidi.
Legal route emerges
Legislation specifically aimed at bringing weapons under state control has emerged as one possible route for the government to navigate the political and security complications surrounding the Sept. 30 deadline.
Saif al-Saadi, an expert on political and legislative affairs, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Sept. 30 was “not merely a deadline set by the government.”
Rather, he said, it represented “a referendum on the legitimacy of reclaiming the Iraqi state and its institutions from the encroachment of the parallel state.”
He said the deadline would also test al-Zaidi’s decisions: whether they prove strong and enforceable, or strong in wording but weak in implementation.
Saadi said al-Zaidi’s government maintains, in principle, that the decision to bring weapons under state control “is not discussed in the capitals of other countries.”
But he said armed factions have what he described as ideological ties that cross borders and are ideologically linked to Iran’s supreme leader.
Saadi said al-Zaidi’s government was moving toward sending legislation to parliament specifically aimed at restricting weapons to the state, describing the move as highly pragmatic.
Such legislation, he said, would allow the prime minister to move beyond the Sept. 30 deadline, ease external pressure represented by Iranian influence and reduce domestic pressure from political actors with armed wings before “throwing the ball into parliament’s court.”
Asked whether an armed confrontation could erupt after Sept. 30, Saadi ruled out that scenario, saying he did not believe fighting would break out after the deadline because al-Zaidi had warned of the risk of internal collapse.
Saadi also ruled out applying Anti-Terrorism Law No. 13 of 2005 to anyone who manufactures, uses, or possesses drones without official authorization on the grounds that such acts constitute terrorist crimes subject to the law’s severe penalties.
He said al-Zaidi’s government had, in his view, failed its first test in the case of Abbas al-Yaqubi, a leader in Harakat al-Nujaba who was arrested and released without investigation on Wednesday.
Instead, Saadi said Iraq was more likely to face the risk of financial collapse as a result of US sanctions, while adding that he could not rule out “strikes on selected targets inside Iraq.”
