The Sept. 30 withdrawal of US forces will mark Iraq’s shift toward full security self-reliance and remove any justification for armed activity outside state control, the spokesman for the commander-in-chief of Iraq’s armed forces said on Saturday.
The transition would “eliminate any justification for operating outside state institutions and give those institutions the security and legitimacy needed to disarm unofficial groups,” Sabah al-Numan told the state news agency.
“The professional performance of the Iraqi armed forces has proven that they are the impenetrable shield protecting political decision-making and the primary guarantor of Iraq’s unity and national stability,” he said.
But the upcoming withdrawal has stirred fears in Baghdad, rattling markets and reviving concerns over the fate of armed factions. Sources close to the government say the warnings circulating publicly are exaggerated.
The Iraqi government and allied political forces are preparing to declare the withdrawal date a “day of Iraqi sovereignty.”
Much of the unease, however, centers on the possible repercussions of bringing weapons under state control — an initiative that Iraqi politicians say may be recast as a “plan to regulate and manage weapons.”
Qasim al-Araji, the prime minister’s national security adviser, said the government would regard anyone who continued to carry weapons illegally after the process was completed as an outlaw.
“Strict measures will be taken against them, potentially including treating them as terrorists,” al-Araji said in televised remarks.
He denied reports that the committee overseeing the process had been given a deadline, saying no timeframe had been set.
Al-Araji said the committee, formed by the Coordination Framework alliance, was working under the prime minister’s direct supervision.
Legal action against those carrying illegal weapons would begin only after the committee had completed its work and arms had been brought fully under state control, he added.
Government spokesman Haider al-Aboudi called Sept. 30 “a sovereign milestone” that would shift Iraq’s relationship with international coalition members toward bilateral ties based on respect for sovereignty and mutual interests.
The government was proceeding with plans to end the coalition’s military mission according to the agreed timetable and mechanisms, al-Aboudi told the state news agency.
“Iraq possesses the constitutional, political and diplomatic tools needed to manage its national security through its institutions and armed forces,” he said.
Fears of sanctions
Despite repeated government assurances, religious leaders and experts have warned of possible repercussions after the withdrawal.
Abdul Wahab al-Samarrai, imam and preacher of Baghdad’s Abu Hanifa al-Numan Mosque, raised the prospect of economic sanctions resembling those tightened against Iraq in the 1990s.
“We sent a message to our government and its prime minister that this country and its people are a trust for which they are responsible,” al-Samarrai said.
“Honoring that trust requires placing the interests of the country and its people above those of groups and individuals.”
“Some are talking about economic sanctions and recalling the days of the embargo,” he added. “We therefore urge officials not to gamble with the country’s fate or place the wishes of some Iraqis above the interests of everyone.”
Concern has largely focused on whether efforts to bring weapons under state control could falter. Many link the risk of regional isolation or sanctions to failure, while political forces and armed factions have publicly rejected attempts to disarm them.
Sadr al-Din al-Qubanji, the imam and Friday preacher in Najaf, warned that “any political or security unrest in Iraq would trigger a crisis across the entire region and destabilize the global economy.”
“These issues must therefore be addressed rationally,” he said.
Politicians close to the government, however, said the public warnings were exaggerated, including reports that Washington and Baghdad had exchanged messages over possible sanctions.
Dollar rises as markets slow
The conflicting messages come as stagnation grips local markets, according to domestic trade organizations.
Eco Iraq, an economic monitoring group, said the dollar had risen to unprecedented levels against the dinar on the parallel market.
“The current increase is not linked to a single factor but is the result of an interplay of economic, financial and psychological factors,” it said in a statement.
The group cited speculation on the parallel market, where traders have capitalized on rising demand for dollars and shrinking supply.
“Fears and speculation related to developments after Sept. 30, discussions surrounding bringing weapons under state control and claims of possible US sanctions are increasing market uncertainty and prompting some traders to raise their demand for dollars,” it said.
The parallel exchange rate has climbed above 162,000 Iraqi dinars per $100 in recent days. Observers said the rise had disrupted trade in goods, compounding repercussions that have persisted for months since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict.
Traders in Baghdad, Erbil and Basra told Asharq Al-Awsat that buying and selling had fallen to unprecedented levels, forcing some businesses to close until further notice.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi plans to travel to the United States for the United Nations General Assembly after ending a European tour that took him to France and Germany.
His schedule could include a meeting with US President Donald Trump, although authorities in Washington and Baghdad have yet to confirm one.
