Lebanon faces mounting political and security uncertainty amid fears it could be drawn into a new regional war pitting the United States and Israel against Iran, with the government unable to guarantee that Hezbollah would stay out of the fighting.
The prospect has alarmed Lebanese citizens, who fear renewed destruction and displacement, as well as officials who have limited control over how events might unfold. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have repeatedly warned of the dangers posed by the absence of clear assurances about Hezbollah’s intentions.
Lebanese State Faces Dilemma Over Lack of Guarantees
Although the Lebanese government has taken unprecedented decisions aimed at placing authority over war and peace exclusively in its hands, with broad support from Western and Arab countries, a major source of uncertainty remains in its inability to guarantee that Hezbollah will comply with any state decision to keep Lebanon out of a regional confrontation.
Despite officials’ insistence that such decisions must rest solely with legitimate state institutions, Hezbollah’s continued control over its own military decisions and the close connection between its strategic calculations and developments in Iran leave the state facing a complex situation.
A ministerial source said domestic contacts have continued among the various parties but have yet to produce tangible results, apart from statements suggesting that Hezbollah would not enter any future conflict.
The source cautioned, however, that these assurances have not been accompanied by substantive evidence to justify confidence, making vigilance essential at this stage.
The source stressed that the Lebanese state is not weak and that its position remains firm, having adopted clear decisions in this regard. The problem, however, is that the party directly involved in decisions on war is neither cooperating with the state nor responding to its policies, acting instead according to calculations and priorities that differ from those of official institutions.
“The state does not want war or destruction, but the calculations of the other side — Hezbollah — are different,” the source said.
Amid regional uncertainty following the Israeli and US elections, the source said the core problem also lies in the nature of Hezbollah’s relationship with Iran.
Tehran, the source explained, does not treat the Lebanese state as the official authority on this issue. Instead, it communicates with the group it supports, without offering clear guarantees that Hezbollah will stay out of any future confrontation.
The source also pointed to recent remarks attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei concerning the “unity of fronts,” describing them as a signal that cannot be ignored when assessing the possibilities ahead.
Israeli Threats, US Warnings Heighten Concerns
Developments on the ground have done little to ease fears, with Israeli attacks continuing in southern Lebanon alongside repeated threats.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has threatened to expand military operations and target additional areas of Lebanon if Hezbollah joins any confrontation involving Iran, while Israeli media have discussed possible military scenarios extending beyond the area south of the Litani River.
Israel’s Maariv newspaper published information about possible plans involving an advance toward Tyre, Sidon and Nabatieh, as well as a naval blockade of the ports of Beirut and Tripoli should the conflict widen.
These remain scenarios reported in the media, with no official confirmation that they will be implemented.
The warnings are not limited to Israel.
The ministerial source reiterated that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had conveyed clear warnings to President Joseph Aoun that Hezbollah’s involvement in any future war would invalidate previous guarantees, potentially exposing Lebanon to far-reaching consequences that could prove impossible to contain.
Regarding the suspension of Lebanese-Israeli talks, the source expressed hope that negotiations would resume and produce results.
The source added, however, that the suspension was not unexpected, as it had been clear for some time that the talks would not take place during the US and Israeli election periods.
Lebanon Faces a Serious Predicament
Dr. Rodrigue Abi Khalil, head of the Political Science Department at the Lebanese University, said the uncertainty confronting the Lebanese state stems fundamentally from its lack of the means to implement its commitments, despite the unprecedented decisions taken by the government to assert its authority and extend state sovereignty.
Abi Khalil told Asharq Al-Awsat that, despite their significance, these decisions run up against the reality that Hezbollah’s decisions remain tied to Iran, preventing the state from controlling the course of a confrontation or keeping Lebanon from being drawn into one.
“Government decisions, however important, are not sufficient for the international community unless they are translated into practical measures on the ground, particularly since Hezbollah will not relinquish this advantage without a political price,” he said.
Abi Khalil argued that Lebanon’s domestic political situation is closely linked to regional developments, leaving the country in a serious predicament as the region approaches a pivotal phase that could see war resume with greater intensity amid US and Israeli efforts to bring about strategic changes in the region.
He said this reality explains the Lebanese state’s uncertainty and apprehension, as a significant part of the decision affecting Lebanon’s fate depends on the outcome of the potential confrontation.
“This connection has been clearly reflected in the course of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, which have yet to produce decisive results,” he added.
Abi Khalil concluded that “Lebanon is approaching the prospect of another confrontation without having adequately prepared for it, while the state waits to see what outside powers decide rather than controlling the course of events itself.”
