Russia Back in Investors’ Focus after Weekend Mutiny

Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)
Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)
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Russia Back in Investors’ Focus after Weekend Mutiny

Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)
Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen prepare to leave downtown Rostov-on-Don, southern Russia, 24 June 2023. (EPA)

Some investors were watching for ripple effects from an aborted mutiny in Russia on Saturday, expecting a move into safe havens such as US government bonds and the dollar when markets open later on Sunday.

Heavily armed Russian mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former ally of President Vladimir Putin and founder of the Wagner army, advanced most of the way to Moscow after capturing the city of Rostov, but then halted their approach, de-escalating a major challenge.

On Saturday night, they began withdrawing from the Rostov military headquarters they had seized, a Reuters witness said.

Financial markets have often been volatile since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which caused ruptures in markets and through global finance as banks and investors rushed to unwind exposure.

After Saturday's events, some investors said they were focused on the potential impact to safe-haven assets such as US Treasuries and on commodities prices, as Russia is a major energy supplier.

"It certainly remains to be seen what happens in the next day or two, but if there remains uncertainty about leadership in Russia, investors may flock to safe havens," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities in New York.

Goldberg said that despite the de-escalation, "investors may remain nervous about subsequent instability, and could remain cautious."

The action sparked attention globally, and revived an old fear in Washington about what happens to Russia's nuclear stockpile in the event of domestic upheaval.

"Markets typically do not respond well to events that are unfolding and are uncertain," particularly relating to Putin and Russia, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.

"If the uncertainty escalates, you're going to see Treasuries get a bid, gold will get a bid and the Japanese yen tends to gain in situations like this," Krosby said, mentioning typical safe-haven assets that investors buy when risks rise.

Alastair Winter, Global Investment Strategist at Argyll Europe said that while the de-escalation meant markets may now not react much, "Putin has clearly been weakened and there will be more developments."

He saw the US dollar finding "some support as the market returns to speculating over rate hikes and cuts and recession in different economies."

Stocks have been on a mostly upward path in recent months, which some said could make them more vulnerable to a selloff. Year-to-date the S&P 500 is up 13%, although it has lost steam in recent days with interest rates in focus. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave testimony last week in which he signaled more interest rate hikes ahead.

Some saw little reaction as the situation seemed defused. Rich Steinberg, chief market strategist at the Colony Group in Boca Raton, Florida, said that "markets will kind of treat this as another geopolitical risk" and "some frayed nerves were calmed in the short run" by the de-escalation.



Trump Exempts Mexico Goods from Tariffs for a Month, but Doesn’t Mention Canada

Construction workers are seen on the site of a new development in Long Beach, California, March 5, 2025. (AFP)
Construction workers are seen on the site of a new development in Long Beach, California, March 5, 2025. (AFP)
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Trump Exempts Mexico Goods from Tariffs for a Month, but Doesn’t Mention Canada

Construction workers are seen on the site of a new development in Long Beach, California, March 5, 2025. (AFP)
Construction workers are seen on the site of a new development in Long Beach, California, March 5, 2025. (AFP)

US President Donald Trump on Thursday said Mexico won't be required to pay tariffs on any goods that fall under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade until April 2, but made no mention of a reprieve for Canada despite his Commerce secretary saying a comparable exemption was likely.

"After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "This Agreement is until April 2nd."

Earlier on Thursday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the one-month reprieve on hefty tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada that has been granted to automotive products is likely to be extended to all products that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade.

Lutnick told CNBC he expected Trump to announce that extension on Thursday, a day after exempting automotive goods from the 25% tariffs he slapped on imports from Canada and Mexico earlier in the week.

Trump "is going to decide this today," Lutnick said, adding "it's likely that it will cover all USMCA-compliant goods and services."

"So if you think about it this way, if you lived under Donald Trump's US-Mexico-Canada agreement, you will get a reprieve from these tariffs now. If you chose to go outside of that, you did so at your own risk, and today is when that reckoning comes," he said.

Nonetheless, Trump's social media post made no mention of a reprieve for Canada, the other party to the USMCA deal that Trump negotiated during his first term as president.

Lutnick said his "off the cuff" estimate was that more than 50% of the goods imported from the two US neighbors - also its largest two trading partners - were compliant with the USMCA deal that Trump negotiated during his first term as president.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called Lutnick's comments "promising" in remarks to reporters in Canada.

"That aligns with some of the conversations that we have been having with administration officials, but I'm going to wait for an official agreement to talk about Canadian response and look at the details of it," Trudeau said. "But it is a promising sign. But I will highlight that it means that the tariffs remain in place, and therefore our response will remain in place."

Lutnick emphasized that the reprieve would only last until April 2, when he said the administration plans to move ahead with reciprocal tariffs under which the US will impose levies that match those imposed by trading partners.

In the meantime, he said, the current hiatus is about getting fentanyl deaths down, which is the initial justification Trump used for the tariffs on Mexico and Canada and levies on Chinese goods that have now risen to 20%.

"On April 2, we're going to move with the reciprocal tariffs, and hopefully Mexico and Canada will have done a good enough job on fentanyl that this part of the conversation will be off the table, and we'll move just to the reciprocal tariff conversation," Lutnick said. "But if they haven't, this will stay on."

Indeed, Trudeau is expecting the US and Canada to remain in a trade war.

"I can confirm that we will continue to be in a trade war that was launched by the United States for the foreseeable future," he told reporters in Ottawa.