Biden Tries to Flip Skeptical Americans on His Economic Plan

President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with his "Investing in America Cabinet," in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, May 5, 2023, in Washington. (AP)
President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with his "Investing in America Cabinet," in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, May 5, 2023, in Washington. (AP)
TT

Biden Tries to Flip Skeptical Americans on His Economic Plan

President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with his "Investing in America Cabinet," in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, May 5, 2023, in Washington. (AP)
President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with his "Investing in America Cabinet," in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, May 5, 2023, in Washington. (AP)

US President Joe Biden will use what aides are billing as a major speech on Wednesday to lift Americans' dour mood about the economy, hoping to shore up his key political weakness as he seeks re-election.

Biden, whose two-year term as president has witnessed a sharp rebound from the COVID-19 induced recession, has nonetheless watched his public approval ratings sag under the weight of voter anxieties about inflation and the knock-on effects of spiking interest rates on the direction of the economy.

The US president will attempt to re-introduce his vision of middle-class American prosperity during a speech in Chicago.

The philosophy includes taxing the wealthy to invest in areas critical to national security, including semiconductors; educating workers; and improving economic competition, according to aides who previewed the speech for reporters.

More than half - 54% - of Americans disapprove of how Biden is handing his job, while just 35% of respondents approved of his stewardship of the economy, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted earlier this month. Voters rate the economy as their top issue.

The US economy grew at a 1.3% annualized rate in the first quarter and unemployment was at 3.7% in May, when inflation rose at a 4% year-over-year rate.

White House aides see those inflation figures as elevated but headed in the right direction under Biden-backed policies designed to reduce deficit spending and lower costs on a range of products from insulin to concert tickets.

Federal Reserve officials have said they think they have "a long way to go" to get inflation back down to healthy levels and may need to raise borrowing costs more, which could cause a recession.

Aides are using the term "Bidenomics" to capture the Democratic president's approach, drawing a contrast with the tax-cutting ethos once called "Reaganomics" for its affiliation with Republican former President Ronald Reagan, who left office in 1989.

"The president vowed to put in place a very different approach - (an) approach that grows the economy from the middle out and the bottom up," said Lael Brainard, director of Biden's National Economic Council.

Whether his message will break through is an open question. The summertime afternoon speech comes ahead of the July Fourth holiday, 16 months before voters head to the polls and as Republicans sort through a large field of possible candidates led by former President Donald Trump.

Biden's last major address to the nation, a June 2 Oval Office speech trumpeting a bipartisan deal to end the debt limit crisis, drew an audience of just 6.2 million people and was only picked up by two of the major US broadcast networks, according to research firm Nielsen.

Trump has made inflation a key element of his attacks on Biden in the early months of the race.

"Americans are worse off under Biden," said Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel in a statement. "Prices continue to skyrocket, and hardworking Americans pay the price for failed 'Bidenomics.'"

Biden, 80, is also expected to attend a fundraising event while he is in the Chicago area ahead of a deadline for federal fundraising records. He is not expected to face a serious fight for his party's nomination.



France’s Finances to Come under Further Strain Whoever Wins Election

 A voter prepares to cast a ballot at a polling station for the first round of the parliamentary elections in Paris, Sunday June 30, 2024. (AP)
A voter prepares to cast a ballot at a polling station for the first round of the parliamentary elections in Paris, Sunday June 30, 2024. (AP)
TT

France’s Finances to Come under Further Strain Whoever Wins Election

 A voter prepares to cast a ballot at a polling station for the first round of the parliamentary elections in Paris, Sunday June 30, 2024. (AP)
A voter prepares to cast a ballot at a polling station for the first round of the parliamentary elections in Paris, Sunday June 30, 2024. (AP)

Already under scrutiny from ratings agencies, financial markets and Brussels, France's public finances are likely to come under more strain no matter what the outcome of a snap parliamentary election, which starts with a first round of voting on Sunday.

The main parties have all promised new spending but their plans to pay for it are short on detail and do not always stack up.

Polls indicate that the far-right National Rally (RN) will come first, followed by the New Popular Front left-wing alliance and President Emmanuel Macron's Together trailing in third.

The outgoing government had promised to cut the budget deficit from 5.5% of Gross Domestic Product last year to a European Union ceiling of 3% by 2027 - an objective that may be unattainable after the vote, which concludes with a second round on July 7.

FAR-RIGHT NATIONAL RALLY

If it forms a government, the RN wants as soon as July to cut value added (VAT) sales tax on energy, which it says would cost 7 billion euros for the rest of this year and 12 billion in a full year.

The RN says it would be financed by obtaining a 2-billion-euro rebate on France's EU budget contribution, although the bloc's 2021-27 budget has long since been voted into the books.

The party is counting on big gains from ramping up a levy on exceptional profits from power producers and replacing a tonnage tax on shipowners with normal corporate tax, although that sector's bumper profits of recent years is likely to subside.

The RN also wants to annul a cutback in the duration of unemployment benefits due from in July, a move that the outgoing government says would cost 4 billion euros.

Further out, the RN aims to index pensions to inflation, reduce the retirement age to 60 for people who started work at 20 or before, exempt some workers under the age of 30 from income tax and raise teacher and nurses wages.

It also wants to go ahead with cuts in local business taxes that the current government has had to suspend because they could not be afforded.

The RN would also scrap a 2023 increase in the retirement age to 64 from 62, replacing it with a more progressive system which remains to be specified. The party says it would stick with existing plans to cut the budget deficit in line with France's commitments to EU partners.

Targeting welfare spending on foreign citizens and cutting red tape, the RN has pledged to go head with 20 billion in budget savings this and next year, which the current government has struggled to come up with and detail.

It further wants to renegotiate the European Central Bank's mandate to give it a new focus on jobs, productivity and financing long-term projects.

LEFT-WING NEW POPULAR FRONT

The New Popular Front (NFP) alliance says its first moves would include a 10% civil servant pay hike, providing free school lunches, supplies and transport while raising housing subsidies by 10%.

It says that it can cover the cost by raising 15 billion euros with a tax on superprofits, which remains to be detailed, and reinstating a wealth tax on financial assets, also for 15 billion euros.

Additionally the group wants to freeze prices of basic food items and energy while raising the minimum wage by 14% with subsidies for small firms that cannot otherwise cope.

The alliance would then in 2025 hire more teachers and healthcare workers, step up home insulation with subsidies, boosting public spending by an additional 100 billion euros.

It says the cost would be covered by closing tax loopholes, making income tax much more progressive, restoring the wealth tax on financial assets and setting a maximum inheritance for families of 12 million euros.

From 2026, public spending would reach 150 billion euros annually, notably by increasing the culture and sports ministries' budgets to 1% of GDP.

The NFP would also scrap the 2023 increase in the retirement age and wants to eventually reduce it to 60. The alliance says the extra spending would be financed by tax hikes and stronger growth, but it does not plan to reduce the budget deficit and rejects the EU's fiscal rules.

CENTRIST 'TOGETHER' ALLIANCE

While Macron's party is committed to cutting the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2027, institutions from the national auditor to the IMF had serious doubts even before the snap election was called.

Since then, the party has pledged to cut power bills by 15% from 2025 and to match pension hikes to increases in inflation. It says that it will raise public sector wages, but its program does not say by how much.

The party remains committed to no broad tax hikes and will increase the amount parents can gift children tax-free.