OPEC Expects its Market Share to Rise 40% in 2040

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais (Reuters)
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais (Reuters)
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OPEC Expects its Market Share to Rise 40% in 2040

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais (Reuters)
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais (Reuters)

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais said he expected the organization’s market share to increase from 30% to more than 40% by 2040.

The increase will come from production decreases from non-OPEC+ countries, Al-Arabiya quoted Al-Ghais as saying.

“This will happen after production decreases from countries outside OPEC+ or outside OPEC. The US production is expected to decrease by 2029-2030, as well as other countries,” he told the agency.

For his part, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Saad Al-Barrak told the Emirates News Agency (WAM) on Thursday that his country would invest more than $300 billion in the energy sector by 2040.

The OPEC energy ministers held a meeting on Wednesday to attend the eighth international OPEC conference in Vienna.

Participants in the meeting reviewed the market conditions and agreed to continue consultations with their non-OPEC counterparts, through the approved mechanisms, including the Meetings of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, and the ministerial meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC countries, in continuation of their efforts to support the stability and balance of oil markets.

During the meeting, the ministers expressed their appreciation to Saudi Arabia for extending its voluntary cut of one million barrels per day, to the month of August.

They also thanked Russia for the additional voluntary cut of 500,000 barrels per day in exports, and Algeria for the additional voluntary cut of 20,000 barrels per day in August.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi Oil Ministry said that Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani met with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, on the sidelines of the OPEC conference.

The two officials underlined the importance of joint coordination between the member states of the OPEC and OPEC Plus to achieve stability in global oil markets.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.