Despite Government Measures, Iraqi Dinar Continues to Fall against USD

The Governor of the Central Bank speaks before the Parliamentary Finance Committee about the exchange rate. (Iraq News Agency)
The Governor of the Central Bank speaks before the Parliamentary Finance Committee about the exchange rate. (Iraq News Agency)
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Despite Government Measures, Iraqi Dinar Continues to Fall against USD

The Governor of the Central Bank speaks before the Parliamentary Finance Committee about the exchange rate. (Iraq News Agency)
The Governor of the Central Bank speaks before the Parliamentary Finance Committee about the exchange rate. (Iraq News Agency)

The Iraqi dinar continued to fall against the US dollar, despite the government’s vigorous measures. This decline negatively affected commercial transactions in most of the wholesale markets in Baghdad and the provinces.

On Monday, the exchange rate reached IQD 1,540 to the dollar in the parallel market, compared to IQD 1,320 to the dollar in the official currency auction approved by the Central Bank.

A wholesaler in the Shorja commercial souk in Baghdad told Asharq Al-Awsat that the market was witnessing a great stagnation, adding that the movement of buying and selling has declined recently due to the fluctuating exchange rates.

He noted that traders are worried that the Iraqi dinar would continue to fall against the dollar, touching the ceiling of IQD 1,700 for one dollar, as happened at the beginning of 2023, thus contributing to the rise of commodity prices and basic materials.

The trader did not rule out that the recent US sanctions on 14 Iraqi banks and the central bank’s ban on dealing with them in dollars was behind the new exchange crisis, although the central bank is pumping more money into the currency auction.

Last week, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on 14 Iraqi banks in a crackdown on Iran’s dealings in dollars.

The Wall Street Journal quoted US officials as saying they were taking action against the banks after uncovering information that they engaged in money laundering and fraudulent transactions, some of which may have involved sanctioned individuals and raised concerns that Iran could be benefitting from the dealings.

The continuous decline in the exchange rates of the dinar against the dollar prompted Prime Minister Mohammad al-Sudani to meet with the Governor of the Central Bank, Ali al-Alaq, on Sunday, in the presence of financial advisors and the director general of investment in the bank.

According to a statement, al-Sudani was briefed on “clarifications about the most important facilitations provided by the Central Bank, which include allowing small merchants and individuals to finance their imports without the need to establish a company, through government and private banks that have direct relations with correspondent banks.”

Participants in the meeting also emphasized the need to maintain the compensation for citizens and companies who buy dollars at the unofficial rate.

During the meeting, al-Alaq revealed “the bank’s intention to resume selling cash dollars through licensed banks in Nineveh governorate.”



European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates Amid Sluggish Economic Growth, Cooling Inflation

European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde (AFP)
European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde (AFP)
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European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates Amid Sluggish Economic Growth, Cooling Inflation

European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde (AFP)
European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde (AFP)

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday has cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 3.5% in response to falling Eurozone inflation and signs that the bloc’s economy risks grinding to a halt.

The decision came while ECB president Christine Lagarde warned that the recovery is continuing to face some headwinds.

She said Thursday’s decision to lower the benchmark deposit rate for the second time this year was “unanimously decided.”

The decision also comes less than a week before the Federal Reserve is widely tipped to begin loosening US monetary policy. The Bank of England, which has reduced rates once so far, meets a day later.

Experts forecast that the ECB will likely lower interest rates again in its upcoming two meetings this year.

The ECB cut once in June and then hit pause in July before going on summer break in August.

The rate-setting council led by Lagarde has to juggle concerns about a disappointing outlook for growth against – which argues for cuts – against the need to make sure inflation is going to reach the bank’s 2% target and stay there – which would support keeping rates higher for a bit longer.

Inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro currency fell to 2.2% in August, not far from the ECB’s 2% target, down from 10.6% at its peak in October 2022.

At her post-decision news conference, Lagarde said recent data had confirmed “our confidence that we are heading towards our target in a timely manner.”

Following Lagarde’s comments, the performance of euro to US Dollar rose about 0.27%, selling at 1.1041.

ECB Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, as in the June projections.

Also, inflation is expected to rise again in the latter part of this year, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates.

“Inflation should then decline towards our target over the second half of next year,” Lagarde said.

However, she declined to detail the bank's future rate-cutting path, only saying that decisions would be made “meeting by meeting” based on economic data, without committing to a fixed rate path.

Lagarde said, “We are determined to ensure that inflation returns to our two per cent medium-term target in a timely manner. We will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim.”

She added that the ECB board will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.

“In particular, our interest rate decisions will be based on our assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path,” the ECB President said.

Wage Growth

Lagarde said negotiated wage growth will remain high and volatile in 2025. However, overall labor costs are slowing, and the growth of compensation per employee is expected to markedly slow again next year.

She said staff expect unit labor cost growth to continue declining over the projection horizon owing to lower wage growth and a recovery in productivity.

Finally, profits are continuing to partially offset the inflationary effects of higher labor costs.

Lagarde noted that the labor market remains resilient. The unemployment rate was broadly unchanged in July, at 6.4%. At the same time, employment growth slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter, from 0.3% in the first.

Recent survey indicators point to a further moderation in demand for labor, and the job vacancy rate has fallen closer to pre-pandemic levels, the ECB president said.

According to survey indicators, Lagarde said the recovery is continuing to face some headwinds.

“We expect the recovery to strengthen over time, as rising real incomes allow households to consume more. The gradually fading effects of restrictive monetary policy should support consumption and investment,” she said.

ECB staff project that the economy will grow by 0.8% in 2024, rising to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. This is a slight downward revision compared with the June projections, mainly owing to a weaker contribution from domestic demand over the next few quarters.