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Saudi Arabia Maintains Control over Inflation at 2.3%

A food and consumer goods markets in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A food and consumer goods markets in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Maintains Control over Inflation at 2.3%

A food and consumer goods markets in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A food and consumer goods markets in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia’s government has effectively managed to contain inflation, slowing it down to its lowest level in a year, recording 2.3% in July compared to 2.7% in the same month of the previous year.

This was even lower than the 2.7% recorded in June.

The government’s control over the inflation rate is the result of economic measures and actions it swiftly undertook early on to confront the global surge in prices.

Experts interviewed by Asharq Al-Awsat emphasize the significance of the decrease in actual housing rental rates in July, which stood at 10.3 %, down from 10.8 % in June. This factor has played a pivotal role in reining in the inflation rate in the Kingdom.

Notably, housing rental costs constitute the largest sub-category in the consumer price index, accounting for 21 % of the index weight.

Experts also highlight the contributions of government initiatives and programs related to the real estate and housing sector in boosting the supply of real estate products in general, particularly residential apartments.

This has had a direct impact on rental prices. Additionally, the reduction in real estate financing due to the recent interest rate hike by the Saudi Central Bank has also played a role.

Mohammed Makni, a finance and investment professor at the College of Economics and Administrative Sciences at Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, explains that the inflation rate has experienced consecutive declines in the past three months, attributed mainly to the ongoing interest rate hikes by the Saudi Central Bank.

“In July of the previous year, the Federal Reserve decided to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points, and Saudi Arabia followed suit by raising its interest rate by the same level. This reduced the liquidity in the local market and consequently impacted the inflation rate,” Makni told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“According to the latest statistics from the Saudi Central Bank, consumer loans during the second quarter of the current year have witnessed a decrease, reaching 443 billion riyals ($118.1 billion), confirming the Kingdom's approach of draining liquidity from the local market,” he added.

Makni further elucidates that most activities in the Consumer Price Index during July showed a positive change. He anticipated the inflation rate to remain stable around 2% to 2.5% in the coming months, depending on the decisions taken by the US Federal Reserve.

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Oil Slumps More than 4% after Iran Downplays Israeli Strikes

Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
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Oil Slumps More than 4% after Iran Downplays Israeli Strikes

Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo

Oil prices tumbled more than $3 a barrel on Monday after Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear facilities and did not disrupt energy supplies, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Both Brent and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit their lowest levels since Oct. 1 at the open. By 0750 GMT, Brent was at $72.92 a barrel, down $3.13, or 4.1%, while WTI slipped $3.15, or 4.4%, to $68.63 a barrel, Reuters said.
The benchmarks gained 4% last week in volatile trade as markets priced in uncertainty around the extent of Israel's response to the Iranian missile attack on Oct. 1 and the US election next month.
Scores of Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn on Saturday against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, in the latest exchange in the escalating conflict between the Middle Eastern rivals.
The geopolitical risk premium that had built in oil prices in anticipation of Israel's retaliatory attack came off, analysts said.
"The more limited nature of the strikes, including avoiding oil infrastructure, have raised hopes for a de-escalatory pathway, which has seen the risk premium come off a few dollars a barrel," Saul Kavonic, a Sydney-based energy analyst at MST Marquee, said.
"The market will be watching closely for confirmation Iran won't counter attack in the coming weeks, which could see the risk premium rise again."
Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar expects market attention to turn to ceasefire talks between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hamas that resumed over the weekend.
"Despite Israel’s choice of a low aggression response to Iran, we have doubts that Israel and Iran’s proxies (i.e. Hamas and Hezbollah) are on track for an enduring ceasefire," he said in a note.
Citi lowered its Brent price target in the next three months to $70 a barrel from $74, factoring in a lower risk premium in the near term, its analysts led by Max Layton said in a note.
Analyst Tim Evans at US-based Evans Energy said in a note: "We think this leaves the market at least somewhat undervalued, with some risk OPEC+ producers may push back the planned increase in output targets beyond December."
In October, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, kept their oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start raising output from December. The group will meet on Dec. 1 ahead of a full meeting of OPEC+.