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Saudi Trade Balance Touches SAR 113 Bn Surplus in Q2

Buildings are seen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 18, 2017. Picture taken December 18, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser
Buildings are seen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 18, 2017. Picture taken December 18, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser
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Saudi Trade Balance Touches SAR 113 Bn Surplus in Q2

Buildings are seen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 18, 2017. Picture taken December 18, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser
Buildings are seen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 18, 2017. Picture taken December 18, 2017. REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser

Saudi Arabia’s trade balance, representing the difference between the nation’s merchandise exports and imports, reached SAR113 billion ($30.12 billion) in the second quarter of 2023, as per recently released government data.

According to the General Authority for Statistics report, Saudi Arabia exhibited resilience in its trade performance, as the Kingdom’s overall merchandise exports reached SAR291.6 billion in the second quarter of this year, adapting to a 31.8% adjustment from SAR427.8 billion in the same period of the previous year.

The report highlighted that the decline in overall exports was predominantly driven by a 33.4 % drop in oil exports during the second quarter, amounting to SAR227.7 billion, compared to SAR341.6 billion during the same period of the previous year.

The GASTAT report added that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports, including re-exports, dipped 25.9 % in the second quarter to SAR63.9 billion from SAR86.2 billion in the same period of 2022.

On the other hand, non-oil exports, excluding re-exports, decreased by 30.8 % annually in the second quarter of 2023.

The report added that the Kingdom’s merchandise imports increased by 2 % or SAR3.5 billion to SAR178.9 billion in the second quarter, compared to SAR175.4 billion in the same period of the previous year.

The GASTAT report highlighted that chemical and allied products were the most important non-oil export goods in the second quarter of this year, constituting 29.6 % of total non-oil exports.

In the second quarter of this year, China was Saudi Arabia’s primary merchandise trading partner, with exports to the Asian nation amounting to SAR48.8 billion or 16.7 % of the total.

On the import side, China held the lead, accounting for 20.9 % or SR37.4 billion in imports in the second quarter of 2023.

China was followed by the US and the UAE, with imports valued at SAR15.1 billion and SAR10.6 billion, respectively.

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Euro Zone Poised to Enter Trade Quagmire as Trump Wins

A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)
A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)
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Euro Zone Poised to Enter Trade Quagmire as Trump Wins

A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)
A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)

As Trump 2.0 becomes a reality, Europe is poised to enter a new geopolitical and trade quagmire with its biggest trading partner.

Donald Trump's victory may harm Europe's economy as proposed 10% US tariffs risk hitting European exports such as cars and chemicals, eroding Europe's GDP by up to 1.5% or about €260 billion.

Analysts warn of European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts, euro weakness, and a recession risk.

According to several economic analyses, there is broad agreement that Trump's proposed 10% universal tariff on all US imports may significantly disrupt European growth, intensify monetary policy divergence, and strain key trade-dependent sectors such as autos and chemicals.

The long-term effects on Europe's economic resilience could prove even more significant if tariffs lead to protracted trade conflicts, prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to respond with aggressive rate cuts to cushion the impact, according to Euronews.

Trump's proposed across-the-board tariff on imports, including those from Europe, could profoundly impact sectors such as cars and chemicals, which rely heavily on US exports.

Data from the European Commission shows that the European Union exported €502.3 billion in goods to the US in 2023, making up a fifth of all non-European Union exports.

European exports to the US are led by machinery and vehicles (€207.6 billion), chemicals (€137.4 billion), and other manufactured goods (€103.7 billion), which together comprise nearly 90% of the bloc's transatlantic exports.

ABN Amro analysts, including head of macro research Bill Diviney, warn that tariffs “would cause a collapse in exports to the US,” with trade-oriented economies such as Germany and the Netherlands likely to be hardest hit.

According to the Dutch bank, Trump's tariffs would shave approximately 1.5 percentage points off European growth, translating to a potential €260 bn economic loss based on Europe's estimated 2024 GDP of €17.4 tn.

Should Europe's growth falter under Trump's tariffs, the European Central Bank (ECB) may be compelled to respond aggressively, slashing rates to near zero by 2025.

In contrast, the US Federal Reserve may continue raising rates, leading to “one of the biggest and most sustained monetary policy divergences” between the ECB and the Fed since the euro's inception in 1999.

Dirk Schumacher, head of European macro research at Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking Germany, suggests that a 10% tariff increase could reduce GDP by approximately 0.5% in Germany, 0.3% in France, 0.4% in Italy, and 0.2% in Spain.

Schumacher warns that “the euro area could slide into recession in response to higher tariffs.”

According to Goldman Sachs' economists James Moberly and Sven Jari Stehn, the broad tariff would likely erode eurozone GDP by approximately 1%.

Goldman Sachs analysts project that a 1% GDP loss translates into a hit to earnings per share (EPS) for European firms by 6-7 percentage points, which would be sufficient to erase expected EPS growth for 2025.