Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.



UN Predicts World Economic Growth to Remain at 2.8% in 2025

A vegetable vendor sits beside a bonfire on his handcart on a cold winter evening in New Delhi on January 6, 2025. (Photo by Sajjad HUSSAIN / AFP)
A vegetable vendor sits beside a bonfire on his handcart on a cold winter evening in New Delhi on January 6, 2025. (Photo by Sajjad HUSSAIN / AFP)
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UN Predicts World Economic Growth to Remain at 2.8% in 2025

A vegetable vendor sits beside a bonfire on his handcart on a cold winter evening in New Delhi on January 6, 2025. (Photo by Sajjad HUSSAIN / AFP)
A vegetable vendor sits beside a bonfire on his handcart on a cold winter evening in New Delhi on January 6, 2025. (Photo by Sajjad HUSSAIN / AFP)

Global economic growth is projected to remain at 2.8% in 2025, unchanged from 2024, held back by the top two economies, the US and China, according to a United Nations report released on Thursday.

The World Economic Situation and Prospects report said that "positive but somewhat slower growth forecasts for China and the United States" will be complemented by modest recoveries in the European Union, Japan, and Britain and robust performance in some large developing economies, notably India and Indonesia.

"Despite continued expansion, the global economy is projected to grow at a slower pace than the 2010–2019 (pre-pandemic) average of 3.2%," according to the report by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

"This subdued performance reflects ongoing structural challenges such as weak investment, slow productivity growth, high debt levels, and demographic pressures," Reuters quoted it as saying.

The report said US growth was expected to moderate from 2.8% last year to 1.9% in 2025 as the labor market softens and consumer spending slows.

It said growth in China was estimated at 4.9% for 2024 and projected to be 4.8% this year with public sector investments and a strong export performance partly offset by subdued consumption growth and lingering property sector weakness.
Europe was expected to recover modestly with growth increasing from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025, "supported by easing inflation and resilient labor markets," the report said.

South Asia is expected to remain the world’s fastest-growing region, with regional GDP projected to expand by 5.7% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, supported by a strong performance by India and economic recoveries in Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the report said.

India, the largest economy in South Asia, is forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026, driven by robust private consumption and investment.
The report said major central banks are likely to further reduce interest rates in 2025 as inflationary pressures ease. Global inflation is projected to decline from 4% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, offering some relief to households and businesses.
It calls for bold multilateral action to tackle interconnected crises, including debt, inequality, and climate change.
"Monetary easing alone will not be sufficient to reinvigorate global growth or address widening disparities," the report added.