Oil Climbs with Tight Supply Back in Focus

FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Oil Climbs with Tight Supply Back in Focus

FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

Oil prices rose on Monday as investors focused on a tighter supply outlook after Moscow issued a temporary ban on fuel exports while remaining wary of further rate hikes that could dampen demand.

Brent crude futures climbed 32 cents, or 0.3%, to $93.59 a barrel by 0434 GMT after settling 3 cents lower on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures extended gains for a second session, trading at $90.27 a barrel, up 24 cents, or 0.2%.

"Crude oil prices have started the week on the front foot, as the market continues to digest Russia's temporary ban on diesel and gasoline exports, into an already tight market, offset with the Fed's hawkish message that rates will stay higher for longer," IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.

Both contracts fell last week, snapping a three-week winning streak, after a hawkish Federal Reserve stance rattled global financial sectors and raised oil demand concerns, Reuters reported.

Prices had rallied more than 10% in the previous three weeks on forecasts of a wide crude supply deficit in the fourth quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended additional supply cuts to the end of the year.

Last week, Moscow temporarily banned gasoline and diesel exports to most countries in order to stabilize the domestic market, fanning concerns of low products supply especially for heating oil as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter.

"The Russian fuel export ban news appears to be priced in for the time being but the undercurrent of global oil supply tightness runs deep, with an intense focus on diesel shortages and fears over unanticipated LNG supply disruptions likely to persist, especially in the European markets," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

In the United States, the number of operating oil rigs fell by eight to 507 last week, their lowest since February 2022, despite higher prices, a weekly report from Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

Expectations of better economic data this week from China, the world's largest crude importer, also lifted sentiment. However, analysts flagged that oil prices face technical resistance at the November 2022 highs that were hit last week.

China's manufacturing sector is expected to return to expansion mode in September, with the purchasing manufacturing index forecast to rise above 50 for the first time since March, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

In a positive sign, China's oil demand increased 0.3 million barrels per day (bpd) to 16.3 million bpd last week, partly due to a gradual recovery in jet fuel demand for international flights, they added.



US Locks in Steep Tariff Hikes on Chinese Imports

Stacked containers and cranes are shown at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California (AFP)
Stacked containers and cranes are shown at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California (AFP)
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US Locks in Steep Tariff Hikes on Chinese Imports

Stacked containers and cranes are shown at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California (AFP)
Stacked containers and cranes are shown at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California (AFP)

The Biden administration on Friday locked in steep tariff hikes on Chinese imports, including a 100% duty on electric vehicles, to strengthen protections for strategic domestic industries from China's state-driven excess production capacity.

The US Trade Representative's office told Reuters that many of the tariffs, including a 100% duty on Chinese EVs, 50% on solar cells and 25% on steel, aluminium, EV batteries and key minerals, would go into effect on Sep 27.

The USTR determination showed a 50% duty on Chinese semiconductors, which now include two new categories - polysilicon used in solar panels and silicon wafers - are due to start in 2025.

Adjustments to the punitive “Section 301” tariffs on $18 billion worth of goods announced in May by President Joe Biden were minimal and disregarded auto industry pleas for lower tariffs on graphite and critical minerals needed for EV battery production because they are still too dependent on Chinese supplies.

USTR left unchanged the tariff increase to 25% from zero on lithium-ion batteries, minerals and components, with the increase for batteries for EVs taking effect Sep 27 and those for all other devices, including laptops and cell phones, on Jan 1, 2026.

Lael Brainard, the top White House economic adviser, told Reuters that the decision was made to ensure that the US EV industry diversifies away from China's dominant supply chain.

She said such “tough, targeted” tariffs are needed to counteract China's state-driven subsidies and technology transfer policies that have led to over-investment and excess production capacity.

But Washington is investing hundreds of billions of dollars worth of its own tax subsidies to develop domestic EV, solar and semiconductor sectors.

“The 100% tariff on electric vehicles here does reflect the very significant unfair cost advantage that Chinese electric vehicles in particular are using to dominate car markets at a breathtaking pace in other parts of the world,” Brainard said.

China has vowed retaliation against the “bullying” tariff hikes and argued that its EV industry's success is due to innovation, not government support.

The higher US tariffs take effect as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are both courting voters in auto and steel producing states, trying to position themselves as tough on China ahead of the November presidential election.

Trump has vowed to impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports.

The European Union and Canada also have announced new import tariffs on Chinese EVs, the latter matching the 100% US duties.

The final tariff decision does provide some temporary relief for US port operators who were facing a new 25% tariff on massive ship-to-shore cranes, an industry that China dominates with no US producers.

The duty would add millions of dollars to the cost of each crane.

USTR said it will allow exclusions from the tariffs for any Chinese port cranes that were ordered prior to the May 14 initial tariff announcements, as long as they are delivered by May 14, 2026.

USTR raised tariffs to 50% on medical face masks and surgical gloves, from an initially proposed 2%, but delayed their start to allow a shift to non-Chinese suppliers.

The planned duty on Chinese syringes, which were in short supply during the COVID-19 pandemic, will immediately rise to 100% from a previously planned 50%, but USTR will allow a temporary exclusion for enteral syringes, used to feed infants, for a year.

The agency also said it will consider requests for tariff exclusions for five Chinese industrial machinery categories, including those for machinery for purifying or filtering liquids, industrial robots and printing machinery.

It will allow tariff exclusions for Chinese solar wafer and cell manufacturing equipment, but not for equipment used to make full solar modules.