Oil Climbs with Tight Supply Back in Focus

FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
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Oil Climbs with Tight Supply Back in Focus

FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Drilling rigs operate in the Permian Basin oil and natural gas production area in Lea County, New Mexico, US, February 10, 2019. REUTERS/Nick Oxford/File Photo

Oil prices rose on Monday as investors focused on a tighter supply outlook after Moscow issued a temporary ban on fuel exports while remaining wary of further rate hikes that could dampen demand.

Brent crude futures climbed 32 cents, or 0.3%, to $93.59 a barrel by 0434 GMT after settling 3 cents lower on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures extended gains for a second session, trading at $90.27 a barrel, up 24 cents, or 0.2%.

"Crude oil prices have started the week on the front foot, as the market continues to digest Russia's temporary ban on diesel and gasoline exports, into an already tight market, offset with the Fed's hawkish message that rates will stay higher for longer," IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.

Both contracts fell last week, snapping a three-week winning streak, after a hawkish Federal Reserve stance rattled global financial sectors and raised oil demand concerns, Reuters reported.

Prices had rallied more than 10% in the previous three weeks on forecasts of a wide crude supply deficit in the fourth quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended additional supply cuts to the end of the year.

Last week, Moscow temporarily banned gasoline and diesel exports to most countries in order to stabilize the domestic market, fanning concerns of low products supply especially for heating oil as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter.

"The Russian fuel export ban news appears to be priced in for the time being but the undercurrent of global oil supply tightness runs deep, with an intense focus on diesel shortages and fears over unanticipated LNG supply disruptions likely to persist, especially in the European markets," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

In the United States, the number of operating oil rigs fell by eight to 507 last week, their lowest since February 2022, despite higher prices, a weekly report from Baker Hughes showed on Friday.

Expectations of better economic data this week from China, the world's largest crude importer, also lifted sentiment. However, analysts flagged that oil prices face technical resistance at the November 2022 highs that were hit last week.

China's manufacturing sector is expected to return to expansion mode in September, with the purchasing manufacturing index forecast to rise above 50 for the first time since March, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

In a positive sign, China's oil demand increased 0.3 million barrels per day (bpd) to 16.3 million bpd last week, partly due to a gradual recovery in jet fuel demand for international flights, they added.



Turkish Govt Defends Tax Plan to Fund Defense Industry

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said Türkiye must boost its 'deterrent power' due conflict in the region - AFP
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said Türkiye must boost its 'deterrent power' due conflict in the region - AFP
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Turkish Govt Defends Tax Plan to Fund Defense Industry

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said Türkiye must boost its 'deterrent power' due conflict in the region - AFP
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said Türkiye must boost its 'deterrent power' due conflict in the region - AFP

The Turkish government defended a proposed tax on credit cards on Tuesday, saying it was needed to fund the arms industry and protect the country as conflict rages in its neighbourhood.

Indignant Turks, who already face double-digit inflation, called their banks to lower their credit limits after the ruling AKP party submitted the tax bill to parliament on Friday.

"Our country has no choice but to increase its deterrent power. There's war in our region right now. We are in a troubled neighborhood," Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek told private broadcaster NTV.

The bill stipulates that people with a credit card limit of at least 100,000 liras (nearly $3,000) will have to pay an annual 750 lira ($22) in tax from January to bolster the defense industry.

"The purpose (of the bill) is obvious," Simsek argued.

"If we increase our deterrent power, then our ability to protect against fire in the region will increase," he said, though he added that the bill was in the hands of parliament and the ruling party could "re-evaluate" it.

AKP's parliamentary group chairman, Abdullah Guler, said when he proposed the tax on Friday that Israel's next target would be Türkiye, an argument often cited by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"While we are in the middle of all these hot developments geographically, we need to make our defense industry stronger than ever," Guler said, AFP reported.

- Weapons industry -

A vocal critic of Israel's offensive in Gaza and Lebanon, Erdogan has warned that Israel's military operations could soon target Türkiye, prompting the opposition to demand an emergency session in parliament for the government to elaborate.

Addressing a conference hosted by his AKP party on Tuesday, Erdogan doubled down the threat posed by Israel.

"Even if there are those who cannot see the danger approaching our country... we see the risk and take all kind of measures," he said.

Turkey's defense industry has enjoyed a boom in recent years but Simsek said the sector needed a boost.

The defense industry is planning to invest in 1,000 projects, including a air defense system that would protect Türkiye from missile assaults, Simsek said.

"This requires resources," he added.

Türkiye has allocated 90 billion lira from the budget to fund the defense industry last year, he added.

"This year, we increased it to 165 billion lira. Maybe we will need to double this even more."

Türkiye's defense companies signed contracts in 2023 worth a total of $10.2 billion, according to Haluk Gorgun, the head of Türkiye's state Defense Industry Agency (SSB).

The top 10 Turkish defense exporters contributed nearly 80 percent of total export revenue, he said.

Sales of Turkish Baykar drones, used in Nagorno-Karabakh or Ukraine, amounted to $1.8 billion.

- 'Disguise the Economic Crisis' -

Last week, parliament held behind-closed-doors session for the government to explain why it saw Israel as a potential threat, but the opposition said it was not convinced.

The spokesman for Türkiye's main opposition CHP party, Deniz Yucel, said Monday the government was exploiting national feelings to sweep an "economic crisis" under the rug.

Inflation has spiralled over the past two years, peaking at an annual rate of 85.5 percent in October 2022 and 75.45 percent in May 2023.

Official data showed it slowed to 49.4 percent in September.

"The AKP is trying to create a fake 'foreign threat and war agenda' with the rhetoric of 'Israel may attack us'," Yucel said on Monday.

"We know and see that they are trying to disguise the economic crisis they caused."