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Saudi Unemployment Declines, Approaching Government Targets

One of the job fairs in Saudi Arabia that brings job seekers together with companies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
One of the job fairs in Saudi Arabia that brings job seekers together with companies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Unemployment Declines, Approaching Government Targets

One of the job fairs in Saudi Arabia that brings job seekers together with companies (Asharq Al-Awsat)
One of the job fairs in Saudi Arabia that brings job seekers together with companies (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The unemployment rate among Saudis, during Q2 of 2023, decreased to 8.3%, marking a notable decline from the 9.7% recorded in the corresponding period in 2022.

This development aligns more closely with the ambitious target set by the Saudi government in its “Vision 2030” initiative, which seeks to achieve a 7% unemployment rate in the Kingdom.

Progress in reducing the rate of joblessness in the Kingdom can be traced back to the government’s steadfast commitment to addressing unemployment issues among both Saudi men and women by actively fostering increased job prospects within the local job market.

In Q1 of 2023, the unemployment rate among Saudis stood at 8.5%, but it dropped to 8.3% in Q2 thanks to government programs, initiatives, and decisions aimed at localizing a number of jobs within its labor market reform measures.

The Saudi Human Resources and Social Development Ministry is intensifying its efforts to localize several sectors within the Saudi market.

It is doing so through various initiatives aimed at supporting private sector establishments, which are expected to have a positive impact on unemployment rates for the overall population.

The ministry’s workforce-supporting strategy has played a role in reducing the overall unemployment rates.

Aligning with the Kingdom’s objectives of empowering women and enhancing their economic participation, the ministry'’ efforts have yielded an unprecedented reduction in the unemployment rate among Saudi women in Q2, 2023, reaching 15.7% compared to 19.3% in the same period in 2022.

A recent report by S&P Global showed that labor market reforms in Saudi Arabia have nearly doubled the women’s labor force participation rate in the country from approximately 19% in 2016 to nearly 36% in 2022.

As a result of measures aimed at improving access to the labor market requirements and the effectiveness of policies involving young Saudi talents in various fields, an official report showed that the participation rate in the labor force for the total Saudi population (males and females aged 15 and above) in Q2, 2023, is approximately 51.7%.

This figure remains largely stable compared to 52.4% in the previous quarter.

It is worth noting that Saudi Arabia’s Human Resources Development Fund has contributed to supporting 1.4 million Saudis through training, empowerment, and guidance programs during the first half of 2023.

Approximately 79,000 establishments across various regions of the kingdom have benefited from the fund’s support, with about 95% of these establishments falling under the category of medium, small, and micro-sized enterprises.

Saudi Shura Council member Fadel al-Buainain told Asharq Al-Awsat that fluctuations in the unemployment rate on a quarterly basis are expected due to economic and commercial variables, as well as changes in the labor market.

Buainain believes that such relative fluctuations during a quarter help direct efforts and address any issues if they arise or enhance gains.

He explained that during the current year, the unemployment rate rose to 8.5% in Q1, then decreased to 8.3% in Q2, indicating that there have been corrective measures and improvements within a span of three months.

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Saudi Arabia Raises $12 Billion in International Bonds Amid Strong Demand

Skyscrapers are seen in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters).
Skyscrapers are seen in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters).
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Saudi Arabia Raises $12 Billion in International Bonds Amid Strong Demand

Skyscrapers are seen in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters).
Skyscrapers are seen in King Abdullah Financial District in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. (Reuters).

Saudi Arabia has raised $12 billion from global debt markets in its first international bond issuance of the year, attracting bids worth nearly $37 billion. This demonstrates strong investor appetite for Saudi debt instruments.

The issuance comes just two days after the approval of the 2025 annual borrowing plan by Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan. The plan estimates financing needs for the fiscal year at SAR 139 billion ($37 billion). The funds will be used to cover the projected SAR 101 billion ($26.8 billion) budget deficit for 2025, as well as repay SAR 38 billion ($10 billion) in principal debt obligations due this year.

The National Debt Management Center (NDMC) announced on Tuesday that the issuance includes three tranches: $5 billion in three-year bonds, $3 billion in six-year bonds, and $4 billion in ten-year bonds. Total demand for the bonds reached $37 billion, exceeding the issuance size by three times and reflecting robust investor interest.

The NDMC emphasized that this issuance aligns with its strategy to broaden the investor base and efficiently meet Saudi Arabia’s financing needs in global debt markets.

According to IFR, a fixed-income news service, the initial price guidance for the three-year bonds was set at 120 basis points above US Treasury yields. The six-year and ten-year bonds were priced at 130 and 140 basis points above the same benchmark, respectively.

Strong demand allowed Saudi Arabia to lower yields on the shorter-term bonds, further demonstrating investor confidence. Economists noted that the pricing above US Treasuries is attractive in the current market, showcasing trust in Saudi Arabia’s economic stability and financial strategies.

International confidence

Economic experts view this successful bond issuance as a testament to international confidence in Saudi Arabia’s robust economy and financial reforms. Dr. Mohammed Al-Qahtani, an economics professor at King Faisal University, said the move underscores Saudi Arabia’s commitment to diversifying financing tools both domestically and internationally. He added that the funds would support Vision 2030 projects, reduce pressure on domestic resources, and attract strong international investor interest.

The issuance strengthens Saudi Arabia’s ability to meet financial needs, expand its investor base, and establish a global financing network, he said, noting that it also facilitates entry into new markets, enabling the Kingdom to accelerate infrastructure projects and capital expenditures.

Dr. Ihsan Buhulaiga, founder of Joatha Business Development Consultants, described the 2025 budget as expansionary, aimed at meeting the financing needs of economic diversification programs. He stressed that the budget deficit is an “optional” one, reflecting a deliberate choice to prioritize Vision 2030 initiatives over immediate fiscal balance.

Buhulaiga explained that the Kingdom’s approach balances two options: limiting spending to available revenues, which would avoid deficits but delay Vision 2030 initiatives, or borrowing strategically to fund Vision 2030 goals. He said that the annual budget is just a component of the larger vision, which requires sustained funding until 2030.

He continued that Saudi Arabia’s fiscal space and creditworthiness allow it to borrow internationally at competitive rates, explaining that this flexibility ensures financial sustainability without compromising stability, even during challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Saudi Arabia’s debt portfolio remains balanced, with two-thirds of its debt domestic and one-third external. As of Q3 2024, public debt stood at approximately SAR 1.2 trillion, below the 30% GDP ceiling. According to the Ministry of Finance, the budget deficit is expected to persist through 2027 but remain below 3% of GDP.

Buhulaiga highlighted the importance of capital expenditure, which reached SAR 186 billion in 2023 and is projected to rise to SAR 198 billion in 2024, a 6.5% increase.

He emphasized the government’s pivotal role in economic diversification, supported by investments from the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the National Development Fund, and its subsidiaries, including the Infrastructure Fund.

The PIF recently announced a $7 billion Murabaha credit facility, facilitated by Citigroup, Goldman Sachs International, and JPMorgan. Meanwhile, the NDMC arranged a $2.5 billion revolving credit facility earlier in January, compliant with Islamic principles, to address budgetary needs.

In November, Moody’s upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to Aa3, aligning with Fitch’s A+ rating, both with a stable outlook. S&P Global assigns the Kingdom an AA-1 rating with a positive outlook, reflecting a high ability to meet financial obligations with low credit risk.

The IMF estimates Saudi Arabia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio at 26.2% in 2024, describing it as low and sustainable. This is projected to rise to 35% by 2029 as foreign borrowing continues to play a key role in financing deficits.