Turkish Inflation Drops Slightly for First Time in 3 Months

Pedestrians walk past a currency exchange shop in the Turkish city of Istanbul. (EPA)
Pedestrians walk past a currency exchange shop in the Turkish city of Istanbul. (EPA)
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Turkish Inflation Drops Slightly for First Time in 3 Months

Pedestrians walk past a currency exchange shop in the Turkish city of Istanbul. (EPA)
Pedestrians walk past a currency exchange shop in the Turkish city of Istanbul. (EPA)

Turkish annual consumer price inflation dropped for the first time in three months to 61.36% in October, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Friday, as fallout eased from the lira's sharp summer decline, and tax hikes.

Month-on-month, inflation was 3.43%.

The domestic producer price index was up 1.94% month-on-month in October for an annual rise of 39.39%.

The annual inflation rate increased to 61.53% in September and is expected to rise into next year although the central bank raised the interest rate by 2,650 basis points to 35 percent.

Türkiye’s central bank (CBRT) raised its year-end inflation forecasts for this year and next to 65% and 36% respectively, Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan said on Thursday.

The bank's previous inflation report three months ago forecast year-end inflation of 58% in 2023 and 33% next year.

Moreover, the 2025 inflation forecast was lowered from 15 percent to 14 percent.

Erkan told a press conference to present the CBRT's inflation report that disinflation would start after it peaked at around 70%-75% in May.

“We expect that there will be temporary rises in the monthly inflation in November, January, and May owing to several factors that fall outside the scope of the monetary policy,” according to Erkan.

"We will continue to use all our tools decisively until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook.”

She added that the bank maintained a 5% medium-term target.

Türkiye will move to inflation-adjusted accounting, but financial institutions may be excluded from the practice, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said.



Japan Says No Plan for Big Concessions in Talks on US Tariffs 

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru speaks at a joint press briefing after his meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (not pictured) at the Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo, Japan, April 9, 2025. (Reuters)
Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru speaks at a joint press briefing after his meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (not pictured) at the Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo, Japan, April 9, 2025. (Reuters)
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Japan Says No Plan for Big Concessions in Talks on US Tariffs 

Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru speaks at a joint press briefing after his meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (not pictured) at the Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo, Japan, April 9, 2025. (Reuters)
Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru speaks at a joint press briefing after his meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (not pictured) at the Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo, Japan, April 9, 2025. (Reuters)

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday his country does not plan to make big concessions and won't rush to reach a deal in upcoming tariff negotiations with US President Donald Trump's administration.

Japan, a long-time US ally, has been hit with 24% levies on its exports to the United States though these tariffs have, like most of Trump's sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs, been paused for 90 days.

But a 10% universal rate remains in place as does a 25% duty for cars, which is set to be particularly painful. The US is Japan's biggest export destination and automobile shipments account for roughly 28% of its exports there.

The two countries will begin trade talks on Thursday in Washington that are expected to cover tariffs, non-tariff barriers and exchange rates.

"I'm not of the view that we should make big concessions for the sake of wrapping up negotiations quickly," Ishiba said in parliament, though he ruled out slapping Japanese tariffs on US imports as a countermeasure.

"In negotiating with the United States, we need to understand what's behind Trump's argument both in terms of the logic and the emotional elements behind his views," Ishiba said, noting that US tariffs have the potential to disrupt the global economic order.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned of forthcoming pain.

"US tariffs will likely put downward pressure on the global and Japanese economies through various channels," Ueda told the same parliament session.

In addition to its large trade surplus with the US, Trump has also accused Japan of intentionally maintaining a weak yen - leading to expectations that Tokyo could come under pressure to strengthen its currency - even though a broad dollar sell-off has pushed up the yen of late.

The slow pace at which the Bank of Japan is raising borrowing costs from ultra-low levels could also come under fire in the talks, sources have previously said.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, who will lead Japan's delegation, said any discussion on currency rates will be held between Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

"Both countries share the view that excessive market volatility would have adverse effects on the economy," Kato said.

Any discussion on the yen may spill over to monetary policy and complicate the BOJ's decision on how soon, and by how much, it should raise still-low interest rates.

Akira Otani, a former top central bank economist who is currently managing director at Goldman Sachs Japan, said the BOJ could consider halting interest rate hikes if the yen were to approach 130 to the dollar.

Conversely, a yen slide below 160 could bring forward or accelerate future rate hikes, he said.

The dollar fell 0.62% to 142.62 yen on Monday.

Japan has historically sought to prevent its currency from rising too much, as a strong yen hurts its export-reliant economy. But a weak yen has become the bigger headache in recent years as it has boosted import costs and hurt consumer spending.

Ruling and opposition party lawmakers have escalated calls for the government to cut tax or offer cash payouts to cushion the economic blow from rising living costs and Trump's tariffs.

Ishiba said the government is not thinking of issuing a supplementary budget now, but stood ready to act in a timely fashion to cushion any economic blow.